The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Showing posts with label Soldier Rising (GB). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Soldier Rising (GB). Show all posts
Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where we specialize in turf handicapping and exacta bet construction. I was telling a co-Worker friend of mine this past week that I started using "The Turk" moniker because I was afraid that my employers would think I did not take my fiduciary responsibilities seriously if I was a gambler (and in my case gambler is lower case g.) How the times have changed in modern society, where just in my lifetime you couldn't get a corporate job with long hair, long beard and tattoos, or in my case, by being a degenerate gambler type. We use to judge many books by their cover and we had the social constructs of the era guide our biases. I don't know if it's better, or worse, but life is different in America, in everyday life, and horse racing is no different. It's days like Travers Day that remind me of horse racing in the mid 80's when I started to attend tracks. Perhaps fewer cosplay gamblers back then, but lively crowds nonetheless. I'm not the old guy railing about change, just observing.
If your a parent like I am, the end of August is nearing the unofficial end of summer, with the kids going back to school soon. While Little Turk is no longer the elementary school boy he was when we attended the 2007 Travers and he blindly picked Grasshopper who nearly upset the Kentucky Derby champ, Street Sense, I still think of Labor Day weekend next week as the unofficial ending of summer and I start to turn my attention towards Breeders' Cup. The circle of life in a horse players year.
I have to think I'm not the only one that walks into Saratoga and thinks about the ones no longer with us. I think about my Dad every time I'm there. My last visit with my father was Alabama Weekend in 2013, ten years ago. What I wouldn't give to have a time capsule, but being there is the closest thing to having one.
The Bowling Green G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Good Turf, SAR; 30 July 2023
Today's seven horse field lacks much front end speed, so Channel Maker's game plan will most likely mirror the Bowling Green. I don't see it happening with the extra distance and pressure from possibly Prat, up on Stone Age (Ire).
Where will pressure on Channel Maker come from?
Watch Pioneering Spirit open up in the stretch last time out OC62K 27 July at SAR. The horse has come a long way since a March gelding and a claim out of Pletcher's barn and into Rice's. 6 of 7 ITM in 2023. 4 Wins in 6 turf starts.
Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) has the class, the connections, but current form after running at Ascot 29 July I question. Feels more like step one of a Breeders' Cup prep plan from Conditioner O'Brien. 25 months since last win.
The beforementioned Stone Age (Ire) come back for Trainer Brown after running in Dubai in February. Prat and Brown have racked up 98 wins over rolling one year at SAR, 21%. Brown is 25% in 44 tries as 1st time Trainer and 30% in 191 starts on a +180 Day layoff. His gaudy 24%/889 Turf Start and 27% in 1158 Routes and 22% in Graded Stakes in 342 starts are hard to put in context with other trainers. I feel like the four year old is also starting a prep cycle for Breeders' Cup but I'd be inclined to back over Bolshoi Ballet.
Absolutely staggering morning line of 6-5 on Stone Age (Ire). He's the class of the race, but it is first time with Brown and it is first time in a long time. I've got no choice at that price to go after him and see what comes out of it.
I'm going to build an exacta, $1 Bet boxing the 5-3-1-7 Pioneering Spirit, Bolshoi Ballet and Soldier Rising and Stone Age for $12.
And inThe Travers:
The Jim DandyG2; 1 1/8milesover sloppy dirt at SAR 29 July.
The Belmont Stakes G1; 1 1/2 miles fast dirt 10 June 2023
The Haskell G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt at Monmouth; 22 July 2023
The Preakness Stakes G1; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 20 May 2023
Matt Winn G3; 1 1/8 Miles Sloppy Dirt; EIP. 11 June 2023
The Curlin Stakes $130K; 1 1/8 Miles SAR 21 July 2023.
Similar to The Sword Dancer, Forte gets installed as a huge Morning Line favorite, and I'm going to go after him too even though his chalk is much darker than Stone Age's.
I've posted alot of video but to me this is less analysis and more tote board odd gambling. I'm going assume the track is not fast as the rains are expected to get heavier this afternoon. There are some big wet Tomlinson's in the field with exception of Mage and Scotland. I'm tossing both from my exacta pool. My value choice is Disarm. Adds Blinkers, training well, slop win and the best price.
$1 Exacta: 6-2-5-1 for $12. Alternatively, 6 Wheeled OVER 2-5-4-1 for $4.
Have fun friends, Turk Out.
I wish I could go back in time....Papa Turk, the Turk, Little Turk, one day together again.
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, focusing on turf racing and exact betting, and I am the Turk. For those of you that don't know me, I started handicapping at Saratoga in the summer of 1986 and started this blog in 2007. I like older runners over grass, as I find the data available on them, as well as their long careers as stakes runners, compelling. I'm not that wrapped up in Triple Crown euphoria, but I watched the Kentucky Derby for the first time since 2019 and handicapped it for the first time in many years, and do I love the handle and the big fields. Chaos pays. I did win the Trifecta on the Turf Classic and I won the Exacta on the Kentucky Derby, but I only netted about $46 dollars across both. I wasn't a very sharp bet constructor, but better than a sharp stick in the eye.
Today is more like the typical race I handicap, a Graded Stake older horse turf race, which I generally like between 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles in length to handicap. I'm not a marathon handicapper and I'm not a one turn sprinter handicapper either. Know thy self!
So what to do with this? Lets start with a piece of very relevant video, the Grade 2 Elkhorn from KEE on 22 April
I like how the four year old gelded Verstappen went eye to eye with the veteran Red Knight and found the will to pull ahead. Don't underestimate the competitive nature in video handicapping analysis. Everyone else in the Elkhorn that is going here did what you would expect, running style wise.
I wanted to find some video on Warren Point (GB), the 4 YO gelded son of Dubawi (Ire). This is over fake dirt from last October. Good staking trip and great late turn of foot.
I don't know if the Morning Line spread will hold, as I value Verstappen much more than the Belmont track handicapper did. I plan on putting Verstappen/4 and Warren Point (GB)/2 OVER 4-2-1-6-3, a $2 Bet for $16.
Have fun with it friends.
Turk Out
This is not a race or a track I would generally handicap. It's not that I'm biased, I just find the variables too many and the motivations of the connections too varied regarding the starting of turf runners in a northern climate track in late November. You have the tight inner track, the weather, the horses who are building towards next year, the horses who are looking for one last kick at the can, the grizzled vets who are on their way to amassing 50 starts in their careers. You get it all post Breeders' Cup, late season racing. All that said, what these types of races are good for to me is isolation: Almost all the runners are outside of the hype and BS marketing that can skew a horse players opinion of a race, and very few of them I have played this year. It allows me in the isolation of just my red gel pen annotated DRF Formulator PPs (an unpaid endorsement) to study the data and bet purely on what I see on paper and a bit of video.
The NYRA website is one of the more friendly horse player track sites in my opinion. You'll find scratches and changes and track condition here. The weather Friday/Saturday is rainy and windy early Friday but then drying up. I'm going to handicap like the turf is good. I can't imagine it getting much better or worse but I'll take note of track conditions at end of today. This is an inner turf race which was unveiled in late 2018 replacing the "all weather" inner track. The turns are tight and the field is big. Can't say that helps the trips that can be expected. The race does not start in the chute.
I don't consider myself a coward, but this field scares me as a handicapper. When I was a high volume handicapper, I would have spent very little time on this race and just handicapped the tote board, putting prices on the 3rd or 4th horses on the board the public liked, longer than 6-1. As a turf race handicapper, there are a few variables here I'd rather not deal with: Trainer motivations for this race at this track, current condition of the runners, the track itself. As far as motivation, its a $300K G2, so I get it, but these are not the stars of the barn, these are horses that were possibly considered from Breeders' Cup, didn't perform as expected in their final tune-ups, as well as grizzled veterans, and horses that tried dirt with limited success and this is next stop. Variables. Variables are what put the betting capital more and more at risk.
So if you are going to invest time handicapping a race like this, bet construction has to weigh on your mind pretty early. Right off the bat I see two Chad Brown horses entered. I've seen this movie too many times and I know how it ends is my first thought, but upon close inspection, neither a iron pipe locks. Highest Honor from the 1 post has one turf win, has fared poorly in big field/outside post positions last few out. Balthus is hard to tell at the end of 4 YO campaign where his career is headed. These two will get bet, deservedly so, but I'm thinking my bet construction is against them. Can I find a foil? Soldier Rising isn't exactly a dark horse, but I like him to win enough to single him, anchor my bets to a single and then look for value in my exacta and Tri plays. Conditioner Clement cuts back just slightly from last time out, a 4th place finish here in G1 Turf Classic. 5-6 in the money in 2022.12 of 14 in the money lifetime turf, 4 wins in 14 turf starts. Ortiz is up.
If I can anchor to Soldier Rising, what do I want in exacta? Of the two Brown horses I'd rather see neither finish in Place, but I might hedge with Balthus if I'm hedging and tote board odds favor the payout, otherwise I like a group of Astronaut, Temple, Mooney Love and Reigning Spirit, tossing Highest Honor.
Astronaut is a 5 YO Quality Road, workmanlike. 6 of 13 lifetime starts Place or Show. Conditioner Albertrani 0 for 32 Graded Stakes on rolling one year basis. Temple ran past 23-1 odds into Place last time out in the G3 marathon Sycamore at KEE. 4 of 6 starts in the money in 2022 for the gelded son of Temple City. Mooney Love is intriguing. Mott's been looking for the right spot for the 4 YO with one North American win, a $115K N1X at SAR last time out in late July. Finally Albert Stall's Reigning Spirit won last start and is training well and could provide some late deep close sizzle.
I'm guilty of grinding these types of affairs into dust with the handicapping effort I expend, but I'm going to keep this one simple: I'm really betting against Chad Brown, tossing 4 of the 12, and building an exacta hinged around a singled Win for Soldier Rising.
$2 Exacta 9 OVER 4-8-6-3 is $8. Have fun friends, Turk Out!
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