The Nomination Is In: The Del Mar Handicap G2

Mr. George Strawbridge Jr: Augustin Stables/Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting. Today I'm primarily focused on the big prize money at Kentucky Downs, but with an eye towards the Breeders' Cup I'd be remiss in not looking closely at The Del Mar Handicap G2. You can find my blog for Kentucky Down's Nashville Derby here.  

Do what you love.  I love Turf racing and luckily I know I'm good at it.  How do I know that?  I keep stats.  Do you keep stats of your own hits and misses?  I didn't start keeping good records until I started this blog.  When I was younger I was more instinctive.  When I started keeping stats I realized I was good at Turf and Synthetic, terrible at dirt sprints and turf sprints, and much better with 4 YO and Up.  My stats varied widely between tracks too.  I learned what I was naturally biased towards and I doubled down on it.  

I still love a good dirt race, and I'm not terrible at it.  One thing I have done for a long time is to try to insulate myself from the biases of others.  When I do handicap these big dirt events, I know very little about these horses except what I read on the Past Performances and what my eyes tell me on video. Try it, really.  It doesn't mean I'm not a fan of the sport.  Of course I get misty eyed thinking about Cody's Wish and the back story, but I'm better if I block that out.  Anyways, Lets get after this!

Del Mar turf routes over 8 furlongs: the middle posts (roughly posts 3–6) win the most. Outside posts (7 and wider) drop off sharply, and they’re especially poor at 1 1/8 miles. Inside draws (1–3) can be very good on days when the temporary rail is set far out (e.g., 30 feet), but with no rail the distribution is more balanced across the middle. Practical takeaway: upgrade posts 3–6 for Del Mar turf routes over a mile, be cautious with 7+, and give extra credit to 1–3 when the rail is way out. 

30 Aug 2025; DMR; DMR H G2; 1 3/8 on Turf

  Tomlinson and Beyer Review

US Timeform Early and Late Pace

So what to make of all of this? To me it's about the horses coming off of long layoffs: Atitlan (26 May 2025), True Quality (8 Feb 2025) and how they fare versus horses heating up with 2nds off like Balnikhov(Ire) (27 July 2025) and Gold Phoenix (Ire) (9 Aug 2025).  

 5/1/4/9 OVER 5/1/4/9/11/7 a $2 Exacta for $40. That's just a first idea, I'd like to get that below $24. Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Ruffian at Belmont Park

Ruffian

Thank you to the wonderful people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts today on the Grade 2 Ruffian, a 1 mile dirt race at Belmont Park for Fillies and Mares, 4 years old and up.

My first race track romance was with Ruffian.  As a young boy, like many boys my age in an era before instant information, we waited every week for our copies of Sports Illustrated to arrive by mail.  I never saw Ruffian run, but I read about her, was captivated by her, and ultimately horrified at her sudden and gruesome death.  I'm still not, some 40 years later, able to think about Ruffian without getting emotional.  Her death, like the death of George Washington and Tuscan Evening, resonated with me at a very deep level, the level in my soul that makes me a fan and lover of these animals and not someone who can purely think of them as a post position and a price.  It's a beautiful and cruel sport all wrapped into one.

I'm not embarrassed to say I'm not really a very good blogger.  The Turk is celebrating his 8th year of hack handicapping and poorly written sentences, and my traffic in 8 years is about the traffic the good blogs get over a Breeders' Cup weekend.  No matter, I love talking about the horses and my ROI speaks for me when I can't string the words together properly.  I wish I had the time, and talent to write like this piece I found about Ruffian.  This  blog entry at The Vault: Horse Racing Past and Present is  real writer's articulate retrospective on one of the finest race horses ever.    As promised, I'm getting emotional talking about Ruffian, and I'll shut up now and get back to the business at hand! Rest in Peace Ruffian and Trainer Frank Whiteley Jr.

I wish there was more business to be at hand.  Today we have a 6 horse field and you could make a legitimate case for 5 horses to win this race.  While it's a wonderful field, I just wish it was more than six horses.  As a race track investor, the reward must be worth the risk, and I can find much easier marks on any card on any day of the week than this race.  That said, I like to handicap and assemble bets, and while I may not ultimately play it, I follow the same consistent steps for every two part handicap/bet construction and I have found that it is that consistent approach to interpreting the past performances and the race charts that brings me success.

Let's get after it!




Right off the bat, keep your eyes on the weather.  It's going to pour on Friday and maybe it will dry out by Saturday for a very fast track.  If it goes sloppy, our field has 7 total wet starts, with 2 wins both by Carrumba, so that may change thinking slightly at post time.  Our field has a top Beyer of 100 by Cavorting with a variance of (16) Beyer points down to our toss horse, Welcome Aboard.  The Beyer didn't toss the 6 year old, her wretched 5 year old campaign did.

I think Carrumba is the logical choice: 3 wins in last four starts, in the money in all 7 lifetime starts, 2 wins at the distance, 2 wins in 2 tries on off track, 2 wins in 3 starts at BEL, a Grade 3 winner, the Phipps Stable (Barbara Phipps-Janney, owner of Ruffian) runner looks the part of pure class.

I like Spelling Again as a contrarian choice;  owned by Buffalo Sabres Hockey Hall of Fame member and one of the true gentleman of our era.  She'll be near the front and looking to fire off of speed.  I'm not sure the pace scenario will set up for her, but I like this mare quite a bit.

Cavorting makes another excellent argument for the Win.  Her last four starts she's been stretching out at the 7 furlong wire, and the 1 panel extra distance may just be what she wants.  She runs against Grade 1 caliber horses consistently and she has a Grade 1 win.  No wins yet at the distance for the 4 YO, 2 wins at BEL, and she had much success at Saratoga last year, something I generally dismiss.  5 wins in 10 starts.

Include Betty is also a graded stakes regular and Grade 2 winner.  Trainer Proctor is 19% off a 61-180 day layoff, I think she needs another start after this.

There is nothing to dislike about Calamity Kate, you just can't cover them all and the Yes It's True 4 YO with Johnny V up fell off my list a bit.  She seems to still not be able to rate very well and with a cut back in distance I think the thought is to steal the race from the front and hold on.  I'm not sure, its very possible.

As you can see, this is a jam packed quality field. Be careful in a race like this over covering and over investing.  Calamity Kate, Spelling Again and Welcome Aboard will have big prices come post time. If you need action, play Calamity Kate and Spelling Again to Win or Place, or toss them into an exacta box on top of Cavorting and Carrumba.

The Nomination Is In: The Colonial Turf Cup Pick 3 (Race 6-7-8)

Edward P. Evans loved his horses.  Rich beyond the comprehension of most horse players, Edward P. Evans was an everyman around his horses, enthusiastic and deeply involved.  His Quality Road was my last thoroughbred obsession, and with his death on New Years Eve 2010, there is a void left in the owner/breeder/sportsman ranks that has yet to be filled.  Barbara Livingston assembled a photo essay as a memorial to the late Mr. Evans for the Daily Race Form that is worth taking a look at on this special day in Virginia horse racing, a state that honored Mr. Evans 9 times as Breeder of the Year.

As a horse fan and a horse gambler, I was pretty disappointed today.  I planned to play Belmont's late Pick 4 but I was very turned off by a 5 horse Mother Goose Stakes.  I flipped over to Hollywood only to find a 5 horse Hollywood Oaks and a bunch of 2 YO races.  I don't want to sound like a crabby ol' Turk but I can't do anything much with a 5 horse field, it doesn't play to my strengths and it isn't even that compelling.  Colonial Downs wasn't my last choice, it was my first choice for turf today, but only seven horses in the Grade 3 All Around and 8 horses in the Grade 2 Colonial Turf Cup still bugs me, but its adequate enough to handicap and assemble some small bets.

I'm still in a bit of shock over last week's Stephen Foster Handicap;  I didn't see the break out/return to form of Breeders' Cup Classic Champ Fort Larned.  Shame on me, but I don't think I would have predicted those results ever.  As handicappers we have to have short memories and put the missteps aside: The horses don't read my blog, they don't get the memo, get over it Ye' Ole crabby Turk.

Let's get after this!



The two key races of this Pick 3, the graded stakes, have smallish fields for turf races, but a core of quality horses in each.  Race 6 at 7:10 Eastern Time is the Edward P. Evans All Along.  The turf should be firm come race time.  Channel Lady, a 4 YO English Channel daughter trained by Pletcher with Castellano up, should be a money magnet and will go off at even or less than even odds.  6 of 8 in the money on turf, 6 of 9 lifetime in the money with 4 wins, loser at 1 mile on good turf last time out.  On paper she has the class and the connections.  Fairly dull morning work.  I can't help but tip my hat to her as the best horse in the field but I'm going to bet against her. 

So who then? Appealing Cat, an Augustin Stable runner for Trainer Motion, with Prado up, is the sort of sucker horse I've lost plenty of races with.  The 4 YO Successful Appeal runner bred by Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member George Strawbridge seems to be going well right now with an N3X win and a warm up effort Grade 3 at Pimlico last month on Preakness Day.  I also like Adjacent, a 7 YO Boundary Mare for trainer McGaughey and Lezcano up.  Cutting back in distance off her last effort at Belmont, 8 of 10 in the money lifetime. 

Embarr and Welcome Dance round out my possibles.  Welcome Dance is intriguing: Sharp work in prep of first race since October She may push the pace.  My thought is that Channel Lady and Adjacent will chase the pace and Appealing Cat will fire late off of that pace.  Do they read the blog?

The Colonial Turf Cup field is also well balanced, with only Roadhog and London Lane being tossed.  I like Atigun to win.  The 4 YO Istan runner,  cutting back in distance, is 4 of 5 in the money in 2013 with a clunker in Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap and decent efforts all round. 

Air Support will get alot of play but only one win in last nine starts, but a few big efforts to Place, including last year's edition of this race, losing to Turbo Compressor by 1 1/4 lengths.

Hyper is interesting;  Trainer Chad Brown is winning 29% of turf races, 21% of Graded Stakes and 33% off this sort of layoff.  4 of 4 in the money in 2013, the 6 YO Victory Gallup runner for the Ramsey's may still have a new level to achieve in his career and today could do that.

General Logan should come late off the pace.  Swift Warrior has a good chance to upset the applecart too.  That's as deep as I'm going.

I'm going to build some reasonable Trifectas and Superfectas for both Race 6 and 7;  Both bets for both races will be the same with the superfecta 3 over 5 over 5 over 4 for a $6 dollar ten cent bet and the Trifectas  3 over 5 over 5 for an $18 50 cent bet. 

The Pick 3 I'm toying with either 3 horses over 3 horses over 3 horses for a $27 dollar 1 buck bet OR a 2 horse over 2 horse over 7 horse $14 dollar 50 cent bet. 

The Turk's Rolex fund is growing with my winnings but today seems like a pretty chalky affair so I'm more interested in having fun than losing big.  Always bet responsibly and get help if you need it.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Sky Classic Grade 2 at Woodbine

The dapper gentleman to the left is George W. Strawbridge Jr., owner of Augustin Stable's and Smart Bid, The Turk's chalk in today's Sky Classic at Woodbine.

The Turk and the Little Turk are quite fond of Mr. Strawbridge for many reasons. He is a sportsman of the highest quality, a true horseman, and his support of the Buffalo Sabres, perhaps saving the franchise in its lowest moments will never be forgotten. I'm also a big fan of Campbell's Chicken Gumbo soup, even the low sodium variety.

I went to Church this morning and as I sat in quiet meditation all I could focus on was how poorly I handicapped the Arlington Million Day Pick 5; Horrendous. I have other things going on today but nothing was as important to me than handicapping the Woodbine card and getting my feet back under me. I can live with getting the races wrong, that happens, I just felt like a hack yesterday and this is the equivalent of taking a nice shower.

Woodbine has a better purse structure than Arlington and has a pretty nice turf course to boot. The two tracks have quite a bit in common for me, as the poly plays pretty fair at both and the turf tracks have the most European feel in North America.

Let's get after today's featured race, the Grade 2 Sky Classic, contested at 1 1/4 miles on firm turf.

Woodbine Race 8: The Sky Classic Grade 2: 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up.



This is a nice field of 8 runners with a legitimate 4 or 5 potential winners. I'm making my tentative chalk Smart Bid. Hard to believe but this Smart Strike son is now 6 YO. 2 places in 3 starts at the distance, 10 of 15 in the money on turf and 8 of his last 13 in the money. Cutting back 2 panels from his winning effort in late July. All or nothing I fear, ran a solid place in last year's edition.

Hotep is the type of horse that is always in contention. You must always be aware of his presence. 5 YO A.P. Indy son, born in Ontario, with P. Husbands up for Trainer Malcom Pierce who also sends the former Queen's Plate Winner Eye of the Leopard to the gate. Only 1 win in six tries on the turf, no attempts at the distance, he comes in off a sharp Nijinsky Grade 2 loss by a neck.

The former Prince of Wales stakes winner, Pendor Harbor, with Contreras up, is also trying the distance for the first time but has two wins over WO turf and has been running strong this year. Trainer DePaulo has a goose egg in his Graded Stakes tries over past year.

Scalo (GB) is the 2010 German Horse of the Year. He tries North America and gets a shot of Lasix for the first time. First time going LH in nine races and hasn't run on firm turf in some time. I'm covering him from Place down but betting he doesn't take the win spot today (and giving myself good odds to look foolish-gotta love public handicapping).

New Hall of Fame member Roger Attfield places A. Solis up on Forte Dei Marmi (GB). The two are winless in 17 tries over past year and winless in 7 tries at Woodbine. The six year old Selkirk gelding closes like a freight train with a devastating turn of foot. 4 wins in 12 tries at the distance, another feast or famine type.

I feel better already. Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The All Graded Stakes Pick 4 on Stephen Foster Day at Churchill Downs

This Turk hasn't enjoyed a Triple Crown season as much as I enjoyed this years since Street Sense, Curlin and Rags to Riches thrilled me in 2007. I don't feel qualified to compare one crop of three year olds to another, but as a fan I'm more than qualified to talk about my relative excitement level, and amidst all the turmoil that still envelops horse racing, I'm ever the optimist that the bottom was reached and a brighter future is ahead.

One of the things I look forward to after the Triple Crown madness subsides is to see which runners, written off on the trail as not good enough, or worse, not even good enough to be on it, come into their own. My favorite horses are always the ones that run year after year until they retire, hopefully sound. I still await the next Lava Man, Einstein, Commentator, Brass Hat, Presious Passion to name a few. Race's like today's Fleur De Lis Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap is where those hard knockin' veteran horses strut their stuff, which makes today must see TV for me. Pictured above is Royal Delta, Alabama, Black Eyed Susan and Breeders' Cup Distaff champion. With those credentials, you had me neigh.

I love night racing on Saturday nights. I think it's a great way in the summer time to cater to the fans, not only at the track (because who wants to sit in 90 degree weather) but also the fans at home. I plan on being fully engaged with this card, and quite frankly, this is a Fathers Day gift, the time on a Saturday to watch these races, that I'm happy to accept.

While I may bet vertically within these races, horizontal was today's blog focus. I settled on the Pick 4, a bet that can be assembled within the confines of my personal bet limits, as opposed to the Pick 6, a speciality form of handicapping and betting that I don't have the skill with quite frankly. Know thy self: I'm less of a winner picker and more of a race talent evaluator. I excel at lumping the horses into groups, and those groups make up the potential winners, potential exotics and the toss outs. Know thy self: I'm more of a vertical bettor, I'm more skilled at it and my ROI is much higher with -ecta's than it is with P3/P4's. What makes us better as gamblers? Practice.

Let's get after it!

Churchill Downs Races 5-6-7-8: The All Graded Stakes Pick Four



In Race 5, The Matt Winn, Right to Vote is the most likely chalk on the tote board but I have Stealcase as mine: This Lawyer Ron (with saddness I think of the too few Lawyer Ron's)son lost by a neck to Belmont's Place horse, Paynter two back and comes in off a sharp CD 1 mile effort while driving. This is the race I'm not taking chaces with, overcovering slightly and I have Neck n' Neck and Macho Macho as well and we'll hope the longest odds take it.

The Grade 3 Regret has some really nice young gal's going at it. Michael Matz has Colonial Flag, with Leparoux up, looking for third straight Turf win. She has a very wicked late turn of foot and look for her to stalk.

Coup, an Augustin Stable runner, owned by Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member, Mr. George Strawbridge, comes off an impressive win in The Hilltop on Preakness Day. Very curious how she responds today.

Centre Court and Treasured Up represent value here.

In the Fleur De Lis, I would be inclined to single Royal Delta, and I trust that Mott would not have entered her her if she wasn't sharp, but I hate the UAE bounce, I've been burned many times, and I'd just rather be safe. Afleeting Lady is my choice to pull the upset: a sharp :47 1/5th 4f work this week and enters off n3X effort. 5 of 6 in the Money at CD. I reckon if i wanted to really be safe I'd put St. John's River in, but you can't cover everyone.

And finally, the handicap division, and Wise Dan, a monster late in the season with a freakish Clark run and a huge Ben Ali Beyer last out. Only one win on Dirt, but it is here at CD. Fort Larned is my choice to pull the upset and add value. The four year old lost by a head to Successful Dan last time out, a horse that is expected to be scratched here.

I'd be remiss to not wish a Happy Father's Day to my Father, big Turk.



Big Turk has a big heart, even if it has a mechanical ticker keeping time now. He has always been my moral compass, enforced by hands bigger than boxing mitts. Happy Father's Day Pops.

I'd also like to wish my Father in Law a Happy Father's Day. He's a Saint for many reasons.

The greatest blessing in the world (in my humble opinion) is to be a parent. The Little Turk is a wonderful young man and makes me very proud to be his father.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: December 26, 2009; The Malibu Stakes Grade I; 7 Furlongs on Fake Dirt at Santa Anita

Friends, remember Ferdinand, the 1986 winner of The Malibu Stakes, today's featured race on opening day at Santa Anita Park. Mighty Ferdinand, 1986 Kentucky Derby Winner and 1987 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, killed in a slaughterhouse in Japan in 2002. Pray that something so horrific never happens again. Again, the Turk is backing a Baffert horse today, Misremembered, looking to give the Hall of Fame trainer his first Malibu win. Let's Go!

Race 9 Santa Anita Park Post Time 7:00 PM ET: The Malibu Stakes Grade I; 7 Furlongs on Fake Dirt for 3 YOs.



Misremembered is breaking from the one spot and dropping back in distance for today's race. His running style should put him near or at the front by 4 furlongs but make no mistake, this is beatable chalk. Coming off a strong two starts on dirt and makes his first start at SA. 3 wins in 5 starts on poly. 4 wins in 8 tries in 2009. The son of Candy Ride (Arg) should be no worse then Show.

Smart Bid is bred by Mr. George Strawbridge Jr, a man all Buffalo Sabre fans are indebted to for his financial support when the franchise was teetering, and a true horseman in every way. Comes in off a sharp 7f SA win in October putting up a 96 BSF in a 100K stakes. 3 Wins in last 7 starts for the son of Smart Strike. Watching the tote and think about a win bet >6-1.

M One Rifle is 7 of 7 in the money on poly with 3 wins. M. Smith up today for Trainer Headley. Training very sharply including a :34 second 3F work this past week.

My B Group are all capable of Top four finishes and several would not be surprise winners and only their current form is in question. Supreme Summit may be a bit of a stretch but is capable of 100+ BSF on the fake stuff.

Papa Clem and Mythical Power both enter off long layoffs. Mythical Power has been training very sharply for Trainer Baffert. Square Eddie I still don't know what to do with.

These opening day Santa Anita stakes fields have been an oddity to handicap and expect good payouts based on the uncertainty in the morning lines and independent analysis. I'll work a similar strategy as I plan for The La Brea Stakes, with 5 boxed Supers and then some exactas and win bets.

Have Fun, Turk Out!