The Nomination Is In: November 21, 2009; The Kennedy Road Grade III; 6 furlongs at Woodbine

Handsome Field Commission, campaigning in the Red and Gold Silks of owners E. Teltzer and owner/trainer D. Vella, is the morning line second choice in today's Grade III Kennedy Road at Woodbine, a 3/4 of a mile affair on fake dirt. It's a nice 10 horse field with quality and while Field Commission has at least a 30% chance of winning, the Turk is thinking upset for the win spot and Superfecta win is what I'm aiming for. Let's Go!

Race 8 Woodbine; Post Time 4:23 ET; The Kennedy Road Grade III; 6 Furlongs on All Weather Poly for 3 YOs and Up.



There has already been some changes. You Don't Pass was scratched by the stewards dropping the field to nine but not changing the starting gate because he was last horse anyhow, and the talented Ms. Sutherland takes over the mount of the #3 Horse, Signature Red.

With a field of nine, I believe the bettors will spread their money around on a few horses, at least four, making the post time favorite most likely no better then 3-1 or 7-2. There should be a chance at a big exacta/tri and super payout.

I'm going to take a bit of a gamble on my base handicap and back Smokey Fire to win. Fairly unaccomplished and one of three horses for Trainer Attard here in this race, coming off a 97 BSF at 6f about one month ago and two blistering 4f works with the last :46 4/5ths.

Field Commission enters off a 101 BSF win in a Grade II turf win and returns to fake dirt after three staright turf outings, including Place in the Woodbine Mile. Also working fast with a 4f :47 4/5ths this past week. 11 of 14 in the money on fake dirt, 11 of 14 at WO and 6 of 8 at the distance.

Jungle Wave is the morning line favorite by a nose and has the credentials. Like Field Commission, he returns to fake dirt after four turf starts and his last WO fake dirt effort at 6.5 furlongs produced a 103 BSF. 4 Wins in 7 starts in 2009 and 4 of 4 in the money on fake dirt for the gelded 4 YO son of Hold That Tiger.

El Brujo and Bogue Chitto will compete for spots in the top four. El Brujo comes in off two Grade III wins on poly tracks and the 3 YO gelded son of Candy Ride has been working steady :48 4 f. 11 of 13 in the money on fake stuff. Bouge Chitto is an ALW force at Woodbine but hasn't done well stepping up in class. A nice 5f in :59 2/5ths signals good form and last 6f outing at WO produced a 98 BSF and N2X win.

Signature Red may run well.

I'm leaning towards some exacta bets with my longshot Smokey Fire on top. After that, no more then 10 dollars or so worth of straight super bets and we'll swing for the fences.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day October 17, 2009: The Nearctic Grade II at Woodbine

Woodbine was the scene of some fantastic racing yesterday. I was most interested as a handicapper in the six furlong Nearctic Grade II on the turf. With a big field and no 10 cent supers, I built what I thought was a pretty good handicap to go Trifecta and Exacta hunting, and even though I came up short, by handicap was fairly effective anyway. Patience and Consistency will always lead you back to the window a happy person over time.

Race 8 WO: The Neartic Grade II; 6 Furlongs on Turf for 3 YOs and Up.



The color coding explains my thought process: My base handicap is in blue, my possibles (be it part wheels or partial box candidates) are in yellow, and my tosses are in red. After I complete a handicap I always ask myself, why I am betting this race? I'm the sort of horseplayer that doesn't bet every race on the card and I'm definitely not the kind of horse player who needs "action plays". I handicap to win and I've learned the best way to pursue a positive ROI is to not bet races I don't feel good about the handicap on.

OK, what the heck does that mean? I'm a Past Performance handicapper. I like and feel comfortable handicapping off of Daily Race Form Deluxe PP's. While I watch trips, I can't say I'm comfortable enough watching trips to learn anything except to identify bad trips for future use. I guess I'm saying if a horse shows a great turn of foot or struggles with a lead change, its lost on me, all I see is good and bad trips, gutty efforts and timid ones. Feeling good about a handicap means I have plenty of races and workouts and trainer and jock stats to sort the wheat from the chaff. Whatever method you employ, be consistent.

By my rules I should have walked away on this race, but it is a judgement call and after handicapping I felt I had enough of a handle to take a good swing at it. It is horse racing after all, not a mathematical formula or a crossword puzzle.

As the color on my chart shows, flip Bogue Chitto and Chamberlain Bridge and I'm writing about a very successful handicap. The Turk hung his handicap on Chamberlain Bridge being able to go 1/2 furlong further then he has in the past and doing it aplomb. It didn't happen.

The Turk Clan did cash a $4 winner on Field Commission, a Woodbine runner who isn't intimidated by shippers. The $26.40 on the win bet which was a defensive bet that worked covered the $20 total that was bet on several straight trifectas and exactas.

It's getting very cold in Western New York and the ice was think on my windshield this morning. I'm starting to day dream more and more about the Baldwin Ave. exit that leads towards Santa Anita. The Breeder's Cup is coming, now less then three weeks away. While it would have been great to see Sea the Stars and Rachael Alexandra, at this point I'll be happy if our American runners acquit themselves well. For analysis and commentary of each of the Breeder's Cup divisional races, read the work of Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance bloggers at the NTRA website as well as the excellent Breeders' Cup 360 website which is chock full of all kinds of good stuff.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: October 17, 2009; The Nearctic Grade II; 6 Furlongs on Turf at Woodbine

The fine looking 5 YO gelding in the picture is Chamberlain Bridge, the Turk's chalk in today's Nearctic at Woodbine. It's feeling a bit Near-Arctic here in Western New York, 80 miles south of Woodbine, and the weather at the track shouldn't be much warmer but the turf will be firm and fast.

Race 8 WO post time 4:23 ET; The Nearctic Grade II; 6f on Turf for 3 YO and Up.


10 Cent Supers are not in fashion for this race. I lead with that as it does shape my bet strategy as I review my base handicap.

While a Grade II event, the field isn't one to remember. There is a parity among the middle of the pack, and in my handicapping opinion a few that are better and a few that perhaps should never leave the shed row. The beauty of the races is that they aren't a mathematical proposition or a Sudoku puzzle as I'll often describe them to bewildered folks sitting next to me on airplanes. The Turk is still shaking his head at Gitano Hernando (GB), surprise winner of the Goodwood last weekend. I can accept that he won. I can accept I didn't pick him. I can accept that I didn't even consider him. I grudgingly accept that foreign invaders with unremarkable Past Performances need to be accounted for. That was understood on Turf for many years, but now the turf to poly angle is a factor as is the overseas or different poly to race day poly angles must be analyzed. All good stuff.

As a handicapper, after I have reviewed what is on the paper, I must sit back and ponder the intangibles. Why is this horse racing at this track on this day? It's a fundamental question that must be asked, especially of shippers. Why did the connections ship this horse here, why did they train like they did, and what is the end game? You must ask yourself that question again in the post race analysis, what any serious handicapper must do to learn from his effort fully, and often the hindsight you gain will lead you clearly to the answer.

I digress. What I enjoy most about handicapping are the surprises. The Turk often talks of staying humble. Horses will keep you humble, but if you are consistent, if you learn from your handicaps that worked and the ones that don't, ticket cashing will follow. I'm not sure how this economy of words blogger started this discussion, perhaps The Glenlivet is still in my system fro last night. Let's get it on!

Chamberlain Bridge is a 5-5.5 furlong runner stretching up to 6f today. Gomez is up today for Trainer Calhoun's runner. Trainer Calhoun has sparkling stats this year, 23% winners, 177 wins, 25% turf sprints, 24% won last start, 21% turf, 26% sprints, 24% graded stakes and 25 graded stakes wins. Chamberlain Bridge is 16 of 17 lifetime in the money on Turf and comes in off a 102 BSF effort in early September and 3 straight mid 90 BSF's before that. Work is dull and slow.

Trainer Sid Attard's Jungle Wave is coming in with perhaps even better current form; 4 straight upper 90 low 100 BSF's including a Grade II WO 7F turf race on yielding grass and the mid race lead at the Woodbine Mile. 9 of 12 lifetime in the money and 5 of 6 in the money in 2009, a nice :47 3/5ths effort at 4f this past week.

Field Commission is a solid local runner who always seems to be in contention in minor stakes at WO, 14 of 17 lifetime in the money. Seems to like slightly softer turf, something I don't think we'll see today. Hedging down a bit with this B pack that I have, but I like him and he gets many intangible points.

My "live and long" choice is Grand Adventure. Dropping back slightly in distance, this lightly raced 3 YO comes in off a Woodbine Mile where he pressed the pace well to the 6f point with :46 at 4f and 1:09.08 at 6f. Not earth shattering, but with Husbands up and 3 of 5 lifeime on WO turf, I'm watching the tote and placing some sort of wager on him. Does he belong this high in my base handicap? Maybe not but if I'm going to consider him live and long I need to consider him for hitting at least 4th or that would be sandbagging.

Little Nick and Heros Reward deserve some action on the ticket, I'm just not sure how much i can afford them. My general betting rules would obligate me to offer no wager on a base handicap that shaped up as this one did for me. That said, I'm oing to keep it simple, small, and we'll see what happens. I'm off to walk the Turk's foundation weimaraner, Kay, and when i return we'll get after the Canadian International, Grade I on turf at WO. Today is The Turk's 17th wedding aniversary. Mrs. Turk wasn't sure if she could find time to handicap today, but she took several seconds and announced she liked Field Commission and Little Nick. Little Turk, our resident handicapping savant, likes Chamberlain Bridge too.

Have fun, tell your family and friends you love them, Turk out!