The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Zo Impressive, the NY bred daughter of Hard Spun, nips Disposablepleasure at the wire of the Grade 1 Mother Goose. Prerace I settled on a bet strategy of putting Disposablepleasure on top of an exacta with Contested and Believe You Can in the Place Spot. I actually dropped Contested based her toteboard ranking but bet Disposablepleasure over Believe You Can and Zo Impressive for two $2 exacta tickets. I'm not a big fan of five horse races, but it was obvious there were four quality fillies in this race and the top two were not the ones I expected, but again, I am even now looking forward to The Alabama more than I was.
In hindsight the pace profile I expected from Contested and Believe You Can held up; :23/:46.47 / 1:11.28, it was the runners that cracked.
The Hollywood Oaks was another nip at the wire by Potesta over Eden's Moon.
This is the race I would normally have bet, but I just couldn't get my hands around the middle layer of horses: Via Villaggio, Starlight Magic and Eden's Moon, who I was less high on than the betting public that put her atop the tote board. My base handicap was good enough to string together a Superfecta, but I doubt I would have went six deep so this is a case of winning money by not losing money.
Willa B Awesome checked pretty hard in along the rail. I'll be happy to come back to her again. I wanted to see more from Killer Graces than we did. Eden's Moon bounced back nicely after the Kentucky Oaks flop and Potesta, in only her third start looks special.
While the Turk is a family man, he's not above celebrating wins in this humbling game. Big Cap Day at Santa Anita is one for the books for me, just about everything I bet turned out well, and the one I'm shaking my head at, The Super High Five, that elusive devil that I have chased and slayed before, I could have had, but the cost of admission wasn't something I felt confident to do.
No way around it, I've been cold since the Breeders' Cup, not that I've bet much anyways, I've also been distant from the game I love. Feeling ground down by my day job, I've had a real passion shortage and my mood has permeated my handicapping. The one thing I didn't do was try to buy my way out of my funk. I handicapped and handicapped, whole cards, mid week cards, just to shake out the cobwebs. I kept my betting consistent and I knew that the tide would turn. It's that sort of confidence that you have to have if you want to survive not only droughts but survive the good times too. My pre race analysis, just boxing my top six, would have returned nearly $11,000, but it wasn't to be, I only place those kind of bets when I feel 10 foot tall. I feel a bit taller again today.
Thanks to the Lovely Mrs. Turk for her patience with my horse racing mistress. As for the girl in the Panama Hat and the cigar, just a loyal reader.
Let's get after it!
Back in December and early January I made a serious commitment to playing Santa Anita regularly, and when not playing, reviewing the race charts. I have a pretty good feel for the track and how to evaluate the workout tabs over the track. I built base handicaps that I thought were a bit chalky but realistic. From those I tried to find value for the bets.
In Race 9 I saw little value; I liked Reneesgotzip more than Eden's Moon before the race but Eden's Moon clearly has more upside.
In Race 10 I liked Mr. Commons over Willyconker, but I had the bettor's fourth choice high and just as importantly, I had Massone, Megaheat and Make Music for Me as the bottom three and out of the way.
In race 11 I asked in my pre race blog, Why is Ron the Greek here? Trainer Mott doesn't ship for kicks, and he was saddling his first runner of the meet, so why? To win. He had a live horse and a $750K pot, not much else to consider really. This was really nice, competitive field. I was semi surprised how high Setsuko went on the tote board, but he is a California favorite. I had the top five in my top six, only missing on Ultimate Eagle who couldn't outrun his Tomlinson.
Why can't I do this for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner? I guess everyone needs their own personal SI Cover jinx.
Hello friends, I'm writing this from the wind tunnel known as Western New York today. I can't remember in my lifetime such a mild winter, punctuated my oddities like multiple wind storms and snow lightning. It's felt like spring since, well, fall ended, and I'm not complaining. I will start with saying a quiet prayer for the people in the mid west who are dealing with just hellish tornadoes, the aftermath is what is rolling through my area now. I know what 70 miles per hour feels like, I can't even begin to imagine what it must be like to go to sleep and be awakened by nature's killer. Anyway, I know like many of you I turn towards the horses and the track as an escape from the ugliness and the pain of the outside world, but it's hard not to ignore such a tragedy tearing through horse country.
With the season turning towards spring very soon, horse racing season does pick up a notch for me. Older horses running at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter over dirt is my idea of ultimate racing. The Big Cap, The Santa Anita Handicap, is celebrating its 75th running. The race is a treasure of imagination to me: Seabiscuit winning in 1940, Shoemaker up on Round Table and Ack Ack, four straight legends with Affirmed in 79', Spectacular Bid in '80 and John Henry in '81 and '82 with more recent memories the back to back wins of Milwaukee Brew and Lava Man, as well as my favorite older horse Einstein in 2009.
Before we go to far let's look at the track record setting 1979 Affirmed in 1:58.6. How soon till that falls? I don't think today but the way the Arcadian speedway is playing, its only a matter of time.
I'd also be remiss in not mentioning, ah what the hell, showing 2001 Tiznow by special request.
I'm not sure yet how I'm going to play the races, horizontally or vertically, but I've built my base handicaps and they are a bit chalky in the first two legs.
There's no chance of rain and the track should be fast. In Race 9, The Las Virgenes, I sure like Reneeesgotzip; training very sharply and enters fro Trainer Miller (18% last start winners) off a crushing win in Santa Ynez Grade 2. The only thing I don't like is Trainer Miller's Soul patch (just kidding!)
Eden's Moon comes in for Trainer Baffert looking very impressive. Training very sharply with :46 1/5th at 4 furlongs and 1:12 2/5ths at 5 furlongs, as well as an 11 length win in a MSW 56K in January. Stepping up, maybe ready to step out. I'll most likely sit on the sidelines on this race but I will look for value with Willa B Awesome who I'll want >6-1.
The Frank Kilroe Mile is Race 10 and it's hard not to like heavy chalk Mr. Commons, the 4 year old son of Artie Shiller who seems to have come into his own after returning to California following last year's Preakness. Two straight 1 Mile turf wins in the Grade 2 Sir Beaufort Stakes and The Arcadia. Trainer Shirreffs and Mike Smith winning 24%of races together at SA.
Jeranimo and Willyconker (Ire) will be close: Willyconker (Ire) came late in the Arcadia and should still be value as a 40K claimer in a Grade 1. I'm thinking top four for Trainer Doug O'Neill.
Jeranimo is 8 of 11 in the money over turf and 5 of 6 in the money over Santa Anita turf and at 6 YO, is the race's career earner at $840,000.
Jeranimo got the better of Mr. Commons in the Oak Tree Mile.
I'm curious about how Jimmy Simms runs and Compari will be in the mix. Jimmy Simms is firing bullets of 1:10 4/5ths and 1:11 3/5ths at 6 furlongs, good stuff, and Asmussen and Nakatani are clipping away at 23% together at SA. Compari dropped back in class and string two wins together, beating Willyconker in an 80K OC in January and is a Grade 2 winner.
In the Big Cap a field of 13 compete and there is an awful lot of quality in this race.
Trainer Mott ships into Santa Anita with Ron the Greek. Why is he here? To win obviously, or Mott would not have picked the spot. he's got the only classic distance win of this group and has gone a mile and a quaretr twice while the rest of the field combined has tried 5 times. I'm looking for value and I think he represents that at >6-1.
As a horse racing fan, I love Ultimate Eagle; Let's watch him crush the Strub field in early February.
Strub G2 1 1/8 Dirt SA
That was his first dirt win and he really throttled Jaycito and Prayers for Relief.
Setsuko and Norvsky have my attention; Dick Mandella in a bit of symmetry trains the gelded son of Pleasantly Perfect. He prepped in an N1X in February and then fired off a 1:12 even at 6 furlongs and a smokin' 1:23 4/5ths at 7 furlongs. He lost by a nose to Game On Dude in the fastest edition of the race last year in 15 years. Norvsky is looking for his first dirt win as a 6 YO, but he is full of class on turf and 13 of 15 in the money over grass. Trainer Warren wins 55% of his Graded Stakes on 11 tries and 20% of his Turf/Dirt Switches, although he's a 25 winner on Dirt and 6% at SA overall.
Uh Oh Bango will draw some attention. Here he is in the San Antonio
The San Antonio G2 1 1/8 Dirt SA
I'm more apt to try Holladay Road or Gladding; Holladay Road is a Cal State bred for Trainer Canani with Bejarano up. A nice 1:11 4/5ths 6f signals good form and Canani is 33% off the 31-60 day layoff. Sadler's Gladding has been freshened since the Ack Ack in November and while training well, Sadler is just 13% off 61-180 day break.
