The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, and thank you to the good people at The Thorofan for having me today. My blog primarily focuses on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. I've handicapped dirt races for the better part of 35 years, so I'm capable, it's just not my blog's primary focus. I hope you give me a read and good luck if you are playing.
Classic Distance racing always a bit of a wildcard for veteran older horses: 11 starts for this field at that distance, 2 wins and 4 Place/Shows. Tomlinson's, always a bit murky, have Hopper 372 and next closest 50 points lower. That's a good spread for comparing Tomlinson's but is Hopper the pick?. Focus on the key metrics every race when building your base handicap: Class, Current Form, Early and Late Speed, Distances, Track Record, Trainer/Rider stats, In the Money and Wins over surface. If you hit the key variables in the base handicap, it puts you in a good position to focus on the nuance during bet construction: pace, trainer intentions, post positions, tote board odds.
Ultimately you will grade yourself on a few metrics: Did I make a return on my betting capital? Was my handicap any good? Does my analysis of the Past Performances justify continued betting on that surface, that age range, that track? Did I have fun? I'm no gambling whale. I'm just a nobody who likes horses, like's to write about race handicapping, and talks about himself in the third person. All that said, I do this because it brings me joy and I have fun. I think in modern times there are far easier ways to make money in sports betting, so if you are reading this, I hope you agree with me.
Let's get after it!
The Santa Anita Handicap G1: 1 1/4 Miles for 4 YO and UP
I don't want to spend too much time on video as I don't think there are many races relevant for current form with this field.
The San Pasqual Grade 2: 1 1/8 Fast Dirt SA 28 January 2023
Pegasus World Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt GP; 28 January 2023
The San Antonio Grade 2: 1 1/16 Miles over Fast Dirt SA: 26 December 2022
So what do we make of it? I think you could legitimately make a case for the top 7 in my base handicap to win.
Defunded is a Grade 1 horse and gives nothing regarding class. Good mix of early tactical and late speed. Training well for Baffert after trip to GP in late January. J Hernandez is up and 26% winner this meet and him and Baffert at SA over rolling year are 35% winners. 5 of 6 in the money at Santa Anita, 10 of 14 in the money over fast dirt, 9 of 14 lifetime exacta finish, one classic distance start, last year's Gold Cup G1 at SA, finishing Place to There Goes Harvard.
Hollywood (Ha!) Gold Cup G1: 1 1/14 Miles Fast Dirt SA: 30 May 2022
A five horse field with lousy pace scenario is no reason to change thinking. Different race, different field, different point in horse form.
Proxy is a fringe Grade 1 contender, winning the Grade 1 Clark last year. Matches or comes close to Defunded's class level. Solid early speed but excellent late turn of foot. First SA start. Only second attempt at Distance for this millionaire. Pace, and how we feel about the pace scenario, will play a key role, but I do like his far outside start and his ability to be sitting midpack for critical part of race.
Newgrange and Stilleto Boy form my next grouping. Newgrange gets Dettori up (21% winner 85 starts) this meet and enters off last race win in the San Pasqual G2. Fast Early, decent late speed. Violence colt is solid Grade 2 and gives up one rating in class to the best here. 4 YO and already $750K earnings. 5 wins in 8 starts, 3 wins in 3 starts at SA , 7 of 8 in the money over fast dirt. Pay attention to tote board.
Stilleto Boy is the proverbial "hanging around the hoop" colt, putting up $1.4 MM in earnings with 3 wins but 15 of 20 in the money. Owner/Trainer Moger's not afraid to take this Shackleford colt go head to head with anyone. Dangerous. Fast early/solid late speed. Kent Desormeaux up as Mike Smith jumps to Hopper. 1 win in 6 SA Starts but 5 of 6 in the money.
There Goes Harvard, a 5 YO Mike McCarthy conditioned horse had a turf to G1 dirt win last year and tries again after going in a 1 mile Turf run at SA in early February. Sharp work on 18 February. 2 Classic Distance starts, 2 exacta finishes. 6 starts at SA, 6 in the money finishes. Solid, not spectacular.
Warrant gives up two class ranks and is a solid G3 runner. Cox and Prat are 39% winners rolling year outside of SA. Prat's meet has been forgettable at 11%. Place by a head in last year's race edition, a lifetime best Beyer for what that's worth. 9 of 13 lifetime starts in exacta.
And finally Hopper, a 4 YO in 5th start, is very very fast early but seems to be in deep waters here. Started on rail in San Pasqual and yielded late presumably after shortest run. A huge wildcard, does he rabbit or does Smith, up for first time on him, wait?
6 YO Heywoods Beach will be back early and can close fast late. Really comes down to how this one plays out.
I don't think this will be a race that the best horses can't manage the pace. Defunded and Proxy can both manage the speed tactics, as well as Newgrange and Stilleto Boy. I do think Baffert will send Hopper early for Defunded to target later. Some other late speed to consider is the 5 YO Curlin trained by Joe Sharp, Scarlet Fusion.
I'll be paying attention to the tote board and looking for value in my exacta. I may look at Defunded and/or Proxy OVER Value: There Goes Harvard, Warrant, Haywoods Beach, Scarlet Fusion, possibly Proxy.
If I single Defunded it's a $2 bet for $10 and if I hedge Proxy in both spots its a $18 bet. I'll be clear and place the $10 bet.
For those of you not familiar with The Thorofan, I gravitated to them because their stated goals appealed to me:
Retain and enrich existing fans.
Seek out and attract new fans including those who are unable for physical or other limitations have not yet had the opportunity.
Give each fan, regardless of involvement, a voice to the industry regarding their interests in the betterment of the sport.
Hard to argue with that, and I am happy to promote an organization that I am a proud member of.
The Met Mile is part of my Memorial Day tradition. I honor our American War dead in the morning, gather with family in the afternoon, and we make this race part of the late afternoon activities. As a horse racing fan, and a person trying to promote the sport, I always try to make the races part of our family traditions, showing my love for the sport to the nieces, nephews, friends and future thorofans.
So with that build up, I'll be honest, seeing a six horse field doesn't thrill me. Superfecta is out, and if there is a scratch, ugh, it will be something similar to the Winchester, embedded below. As a horse racing fan I'll enjoy seeing some of my favorite horses contest this prestigious race, but as a bettor, I'd generally pass on a six horse field.
With a favorite that will be less than 2-1 and perhaps a post time chalk at 8-5, what do we do with this, how do we plan? Looking at the wager menu, Exacta, Trifecta and the Double are the bets de jour, and I think I'll target a value exacta. A value exacta Turk? Yes, we are going to toss the presumptive chalk and piece together no more than 4 combinations, or $8 worth of $2 exactas on the hunt for a will pay that at least doubles our investment or a bet that pays out greater than $16.
My initial read of the six horse field is that the quality of horses and the competitiveness of this race is high, with 5 of 6 runners currently millionaires. You know, many eleven horse fields have the same or fewer quality runners as this group, but it's those five other horses that help to keep the prices slightly more attractive. Nothing like a Duke of Mischief, a Mucho Macho Man or a Wilburn to drive an 8-5 back to 3-1.
I find it helpful to assess current form first. To do that I like to visual handicap, a combination of trip handicapping and visual appearance of the horses, especially in the last 1/8 of a mile and the gallop out. You Tube is a great resource for this sort of thing, even if sometimes you may have to hunt an peck a bit to find what you are looking for. I've gathered some of the key races that I think will help me decoded today's field.
2012 Affirmed Success Stakes Restricted NY STATE 7f
2012 Carter Handicap 7f
2012 Churchill Downs 7f
2012 Winchester 1 Mile
2011 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
There are a few things not to like about the 2011 Preakness Stakes Winner, Shackleford; Romans and Velazquez are winless together over past year, Velazquez is up in place of regular pilot Castanon, Velazquez is only a 7% winner at Belmont right now. Continuing to pile on, the horse is winless at the distance, winless at Belmont, and has only one win, his last in the Churchill Downs since the Preakness. All that said, I don't believe he'll be the bettors chalk and I'm installing him as my chalk and my single in the great exacta value hunt. I got the negatives out of the way, on the positives side of the ledger, a gutty stretch run in his last race and a decent enough effort in the Carter Handicap.
I am a big Jackson Bend fan; 19 of 25 in the money, 6 of last 7 races in triple digit Beyers. The 5 YO son of Hear No Evil has only one win in five tries at the distance, winless in two starts at Belmont, 18 of 22 in the money on fast dirt.
I expect the bettor's will reward Caleb's Posse with the chalk; Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile reigning champ, 2011 King's Bishop winner, with last two races lost by a combined neck and nose. Trainer Von Hemel, with Maragh up, combine for 43% winners. Trainer Von Hemel has a 31% win rate in graded stakes. I think the race sets up perfect for him, as he'll be off the lead and will have at least three targets to shoot for. I suspect he'll be wide out of the turn and he'll make his run there.
In the "one of these things is not like the other" category, Saginaw makes a big class jump up to enter this race. Trainer David Jacobson felt pretty good about his chances and runs him back on eleven days rest after winning the NY State restricted Affirmed Success Stakes. The six year old gelding has three wins at Belmont and is 12 of 13 in the money at the distance and 11 of 15 in the money on fast dirt.
It doesn't seem possible that Caixa Eletronica is seven years old, but he is, and he makes a whopping 53 start in this race and is 35 of 52 in the money, with 7 wins in his last 16 starts. A winner off the pace in the Charles Town Classic last time out, his best efforts come right off the pace, but it will be an almost career best for him to strike a win against this group and even Place seems unlikely. I think I found my value, now he has to do the work.
Trainer Mott's To Honor and Serve is a fine horse, winner of the Winchester last time out. He's 2 of 2 at Belmont and 3 of 3 at one mile and 10 of 12 in the money on fast dirt. All that said, I'm lukewarm on him. Mott and Lezcano do win 32% of the time together at Belmont.
There is quite a bit to like about To Honor and Serve and I wouldn't be surprised if he won this race. I'm more impressed by the quality of the field now since I went a bit deeper on the analysis, but you can't cover everybody.
Today's handicapping and betting exercise is really more about the bet construction than the handicap. I made a decision early on to bet Exacta and I made a decision to slot the bettors chalk no higher than Place. I'll bet no more than $6 to $8 dollars making straight Exacta Bets that single my chalk, Shackleford, and then cover everyone with the current exception of To Honor and Serve. Does that mean I like Saginaw more than To Honor and Serve? No, but this isn't a popularity contest, we are betting real money and I'm willing to risk $8 to make $16 or more and Saginaw represents that chance more than To Honor and Serve. Maybe the better argument is should I cover To Honor and Serve to Place and drop Caleb's Posse, especially if 8-5, and the answer is maybe.
You can't cover everyone friends; It's not good money management to lose bets, we can all agree on that, but its also not good money management to risk alot of capital on a small return, made smaller because you threw in an extra horse. If you have to do that, take more time becoming a better handicapper and save your capital for when you are ready.
I know it's a smallish field, made possibly smaller if Saginaw runs on the 27th as is possible, so gather your family around the TV at race time and try and make the race, perhaps not this particular edition of the race, a real family tradition like I have in mine. That's the true spirit of The Thorofan, bringing fans back.
The Turk would like to thank the fine folks at The Thorfan and the Handicappers Corner for the privilege of throwing darts against the wall, errr, handicapping this weekend's Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park.
The Turk loves the handicap division because the richness of information over several seasons that unfolds on the past performances stirs the mathematical intrigue in me. Horse racing for me is a two for one value; I get jazzed by the handicapping and the gambling, especially when I win, but I'm also able to put aside the money side of things and just be a super fan. Like everyone, I dream of the next Triple Crown winner, and I honor the eleven previous winners, but it's the older runners on the dirt and the turf that really do it for me. Last year was a bit lean on returning heroes and it's time that the cupboard gets restocked with superstars older than 3 years old.
There are some great minds on this internet-thingy handicapping: The Handicappers Corner, The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers are great places to go and bounce your own thoughts off of people who are right pretty often. I believe strongly in building handicaps without outside influence, so I really hope you have already built your handicap and you are just using this to gage your own thinking.
I was musing the other night that my own racing year mirrors the handicapping division: I shutdown after the Clark Handicap, I go to the farm (OK Chipolte's and the corner bar) and just chill until early January, I show back up in Florida and start running again, getting my stride up before taking another break in May, only to pick it up around Saratoga/Haskell time and making the strong run back to the Breeders' Cup. Turk buddy, what the heck are you talking about? I'm sayin' that I'm rusty in the handicapping and I've been resting my red pen since the Clark, just like some of these runners have been resting since that same race. If I graphed my ROI, which I do, I'm at my absolute best at the end of the season when the horses are a pretty known quantity and my handicapped skill is at its proverbial "3rd race after a layoff" best. I ain't there yet but let's take a swing at this race anyway.
Gulfstream Park Race 10: The Donn Handicap
One problem with being an internet hack handicapper is exposing your thoughts before you have enough information. Without blogging I'd have my base handicap for the Donn done on Friday night but my bet strategy would be formed once the track conditions and scratches and changes firmed up. I also like to stare at the tote board for as long as possible to make sure my superfecta investment makes sense. Perhaps the worst feeling I know is "investing" $50 to make $30. The weather at Gulfstream this weekend looks like it has the possibility to continue to be inclement, and I've built my base handicap with a slant towards slop.
So where am I coming from? Flat Out has four progressively decreasing Beyer races in a row. He looked like a horse that needed a break after the Clark Handicap, but many Breeders' Cup combatants put in dull efforts in thier first races back. Trainer Dickey got a turf effort in for God only knows what reason except possibly to increase sire value, or he just couldn't find a better spot in the conditions book. I dunno, seems like an Allowance race over dirt and 1 1/16 would have been better but the point is he got work in and this is his second effort off a 45-180 day layoff. Surely Turk that's a winning angle? 0% for Dickey but only his 5th try. Jock Solis is just a 6% winner at Gulfstream. On the positive side, I liked his slop effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and he is a bit sharper race wise than some of his cohorts, at some point I have to believe he reverses course and returns to form. This weekend would be a good time!
Dick Dutrow, not my favorite trainer but a solid horseman nonetheless, brings in Trickmeister, 5 wins in 5 starts lifetime at age 5 after beating up on shoulda, coulda, woulda types like Our Dark Knight. Ramon Dominguez and Trainer Dutrow combine for 32% wins and the son of Proud Citizen has been sharpening up over the Gulfstream Park track since New Years Eve. I want to be careful he's not too high on the toteboard but I will cover him in all four spots in my Superfecta.
The presumptive bettor's chalk will be Shackleford. I love the horse but there are red flags; winless since The Preakness, before that an N1X. A loser to Coil at the Haskell by a neck and trounced at the Travers, a loser to Wilburn at the Indiana Derby, only to choke to Caleb's Posse in the Dirt Mile. I am tickled pink to see him back and excited for Dale Romans and his barn, but I am concerned. He's a tepid B for me, Top Four on expectations and class.
Ruler on Ice, the Belmont winning gelded four year old son of Roman Ruler, is back for popular trainer, Kelley Breen who places Rosie Napravnik up. Also resting since The Clark, some very impressive bullets at 4 and 5 furlongs and a very solid resume on slop may make me reconsider and move him further up the handicap.
Soaring Empire and Redeemed will round out my top six Superfecta candidates. Soaring Empire is more of a one turn specialist and he enters off a disappointing 6th in the Hal's Hope after winning in 2011. I like the 5 YO an awful lot and I am very interested in seeing how he goes over the slop. He does own the best Tomlinson (453) over the muck. Redeemed is Dick Dutrow's other runner who is taking a jump up in class but is worth a look. The one that could make me look stooooopid is Hymn Book, but then again, a son of Arch, ridden by Johnny V for Shug McGaughey is just screaming to not be ignored. You can't cover everyone and you'll go broke tryin; build your handicap and bets with an eye towards the bottom line.
I'm going to assemble a Superfecta that approximates my base handicap. If I don't like what I see on the tote board or if more than just Al Khali scratches (I'm going to guess he does)I may retrench to a Trifecta just to keep my action reasonable and in line with where I feel my handicappers touch is right now, which is, well, "1st effort off a 60-180 day layoff".
Also, sorry for the gratuitous $6,000 dollar pile of winnings on my desk. I'm stroking my bad motherf**ker handicapper mojo back up, just like a trainer takes a horse out for a nice blow before a big race. It's my "It's Britney, Bitch" moment.
Great talking to you friends. Enjoy the races, Turk Out!
It seems the question my friends keep asking is one I wish to avoid: If today's winner of the Travers is one of the 3 YOs to have won a major Grade I already, will he be a lock for horse of the year? How quickly we jump to canonize in our society. I won't rant today, it's too much of a holiday for me, these Travers Stakes days, but let's allow the year play out folks.
I put a personal favorite of mine up today, a fine picture of Point Given by Tom Killips, the 2001 winner, being led to the winners circle by the ageless master, Trainer Bob Baffert. Point Given's greatness was cemented by the time this race ended: A Preakness, a Belmont, a Haskell and a Travers in consecutive starts will do that for you. This year's three year olds have been battered and bruised for lacking a real division leader, and the question of if it's depth of talent or mediocrity is a topic I've had some wonderfully engaged discussions on with readers here and within the social media universe, as well as over cigars at a few paddocks. If the year plays out like it has, someone different will step forward.
What do I suspect today? A chance to break the cycle. I'm leaning towards a horse with raw talent to burn and the DNA of greatness, Coil, yes the one career start on dirt Coil, son of Point Given. Whoever wins, and I'm still keen on Shackleford, there's this little hootenanny called the Breeders' Cup Classic with no strong candidate currently to win. I'm more interested in allowing greatness to announce itself on the biggest stage. Someone will kick the door open today, Let's get after it!
The Travers Stakes Day Pick 6 Race 8-13 post time 3:28 ET
I'm not an advocate of the Pick Six as a betting option for the traditional bettor; It's sexy, it's daunting, it feels like a wise guy thing to do, but it's a black hole of failure to casual bettors. I've never hit one, but I think I've only personally bet a P6 a handful of times.
The Turk was a member of a Pick Six group for a short period of time. I was humbled that I was invited to join with some pretty serious fellas and smart enough to know I wasn't that into the action. My readers and friends know I'm an exotics fella, but there are much softer spots to invest in.
All that said, I've assembled a $24 $1 P6 bet. If I'm going to play it, I want to win it betting a little as possible. To me that's got a cool factor and something worth hunting for a few times a year.
It always starts with the base handicap for me, regardless of what betting menu option I choose. Once you've done the work you can take the race program either horizontally or vertically.
I'll let my spreadsheet speak for me and keep my comments short until my post race analysis, and then I'll take a little extra time to explain what I was thinking.
Have fun with the card and only bet what you are 100% prepared to lose.
Sometimes you have to change positions on the fly. I went into the day thinking Pick 4 at Belmont, but I just couldn't get my hands around the way the track is playing and I chose not to place a Pick 4 wager. Good thing, as I would never have picked Justin Phillip in the Woody Stephen.
Pick and choose your spots, and on days with tough weather, watch the races closely. I've got HRTV on, streaming through my Mac Mini that is HDMI'd into the TV and its pretty clear that spreed is striking the lead and staying over distance. It's sloppy and ugly and that's a wild card as a bettor you can either accept and live with, or, novel idea, just don't bet. Anyone who tells you they are a disciplined bettor but then talks about being an action play bettor isn't being honest with themselves or you.
Let's get after these nice Grade I events and do our best with the surfaces.
BEL Race 10 and 11: The Grade I Manhattan Handicap and Grade I Belmont Stakes
I'm going to let the spreadsheet speak for itself and I'm going to instead start mixing drinks and enjoy the rest of the day. These Triple Crown days are fantastic friends and family events and I use them as an opportunity to invite people to the house and spread the gospel of racing. I'm doing my part to market the sport...and drink bourbon!
I'm going Superfecta hunting, have fun friends, Turk Out!
I find myself asking that as I sat here alone going through the days events. On one hand I am blogging about a day with an over $5,000 profit, yet, as I studied the race chart, I realized that I had the Super High Five choices cold within my Superfecta bet on the Preakness, and the Superhigh Five paid a whopping $49,742.
I left alot of money on the table with a bet I never considered. My creature of habit ways that I preach as the secret to my consistent results can sometimes work against me when considering new ideas.
My nature is half full and I'm not regretful at all. I'll learn from this and when I have the feeling like I had today I'll consider the Super High Five and maybe karma will be there for me.
Let's get after it!
Pimlico Pick 4 Race 9-12
i could taste this Pick Four and in the end it didn't work out. I was high on Shackleford for the Kentucky Derby but I really thought the speed wouldn't carry today and it did.
Race 9 started great for me; I loved Shared Account but I went into the race planning to bet against her and I nailed No Explaining cold. I'm a big Roger Attfield fan over the grass and his filly looked great up the stretch. I placed for me a rare win bet which paid $8.80 and I had a simple four horse superfecta box that I cashed as well.
I passed on betting in race 10 with the scratches, especially Pleasant Prince, my chalk. I covered Apart in the Pick 4 and stayed alive. I like the way the colt battled, something I hadn't seem much in him previously.
I was high on Baryshnikov in race 11 and he only faltered ounder a gritty effort by Paddy O' Prado who I wisely covered in the Pick 4 to stay alive again.
And finally in the Preakness I had tunnel vision on betting the Superfecta and never considered the Super High Five. Never once did I consider the bet. I'm not too proud to admit mistakes and I'll learn from it. Even the Ol' Turk learns new tricks as time goes by. I went deep into my handicap for the Superfecta, skipping over only Flashpoint who I thought would rabbit and falter, which he did. I didn't cover Shackleford in the Pick 4 as I thought he'd fizzle and die to, but in reality, I was too conservative. Adding him to my Pick 4 would have cost me an additional $96 and I would have netted $255. I don't like to over cover in the P4, so ( have to love with it.
I'm not going to sing the blues about woulda, shoulda, coulda bets. I hit a big time signer and I was all over this card as well as the Black Eyed Susan card. Staying consistent and keeping an open mind about opportunities like the Super high Five is the lesson I'll take from this.
