Post Race Analysis for Raceday 6 August 2011: The Grade 1 Test and Whitney as part of the Saratoga Late Pick 3

Suck or blow? When you work around large machines like I have my whole working career, this is the sort of discussion that starts theoretical: It takes less energy to draw a a material in the gaseous state through equipment with a slightly negative vacuum then it does to push the same gaseous solution through by blowing it under a slight positive pressure. After the discussion on mechanical and electro-hydraulic systems concludes the subject often turns crudely sexual, but that's a topic for a different blog. In horse racing, if you "blow" or "suck" I reckon it doesn't really matter as your tickets will be worthless regardless.

And speaking of losing tickets, what do you do with yours? When I just feel like people watching, I'll hang out at the track and after the results go final I take great pleasure in watching people celebrate as well as go into fits of despair. The poor tickets are either venerated to holy status or they are ripped, shredded, thrown, burned, etc etc etc. Me personally, I can't have negative vibe tickets on my person, they are thrown away immediately, which brings me to the story of the young Asian male at Churchill Downs sitting on the floor during Breeders' Cup Friday digging through a garbage can frantically looking at tickets amongst the filth, but that too is another story for another day.

The Turk is a big boy: I love talking about my wins, and I feel good enough about my decent skills as a handicapper to talk about the train wrecks. The Test was not a horrible handicap for me, I missed on Roman Treasure and it's hard to anticipate American Lady getting pulled up.

I plain sucked and/or blow'd with the Whitney Handicap. I knew it was a challenging field, but ugh, I didn't intentionally try to pick the finish in reverse order.

Anyhow, the carnage via spreadsheet is ugly:

Saratoga Race 9-10-11






So first of all, wow, Turbulant Descent. I may live in the Eastern United States, but I pay close attention to California racing and I knew this filly was special, bust she made a mockery of this field. Perhaps if Savvy Supreme, who was scratched, puts some pressure on Roman Treasure and Ramon and the pace was a bit hotter but....let's cut that loser talk off at the knees right now: The Test field was no match for Turbulent Descent.

My handicap was based on value and the hope that Turbulent Descent would not like the going. I knew no matter what she'd be top three and I backed a pretty fine filly, Pomeroys Pistol and I liked American Lady as well. I'm not as bullish on Her Smile, but her Prioress was honest.

Where do I start with the Whitney? Tizway was 1 of 8 with only 3 in the money finishes at the distance. He does have a tendency to run three race sequences and his first race back is generally a three digit Beyer. He was also training sharply at Saratoga since late June. The six year old now has 7 wins in 20 starts and is 13 of 20 in the money. Where will he point next? The Kelso like last year to prep for the Breeders' Cup Mile or is he main event? I'm thinking main event baby.

Flat Out was 1 of 3 at the distance before yesterday but had 4 wins of 9 starts over fast dirt. I disliked the post draw but I liked the bullets he's been churning out at Monmouth and the Suburban at 1 1/8 miles to pay $13.60 was artistic. The lightly raced five year old son of Flatter is now 6 of 10 lifetime in the money.

I've been a Giant Oak fan a long time but I thought he was no better than an exotic with this field; 2 wins in now 16 fast dirt starts and 2 wins in 10 tries at this distance and only 1 win, The Grade 1 Donn in last 11 tries. He's been training sharp and as expected he closed like a freight train.

Friend or Foe was a colt I was conflicted on pre race: A NY bred 4 YO who was winless in two tries at SAR, but 5 of 8 on fast dirt and he's beaten Rail Trip, Convocation, Ichabad Crane and Ibboyee to name some. He ran respectable in last year's Jim Dandy and Travers and he's had three straight 100+ Beyer's. Respect earned.

Headache I was high on. A morning line 20-1, I thought he had a very good chance to be top four. The 5 YO gelding ran well in the tight Prairie Medows turns and I thought he'd sneak up a bit higher. Trainer Maker has every reason to be proud of him and he didn't disappoint yesterday.

The text on the race charts is often terse but effective. Mission Impazzible "...no rally". I've never been that high on Mission Impazzible and I had him higher yesterday than the fan in me liked, but I'm a handicapper,not a fanboy, and that's why I'm in a foul mood over him. Pletcher's charge is just good enough to tease you.

Rail Trip "...lacked the necessary response". Yup. Trainer Dutrow doesn't seem to be doing too well with the six year old gelding whom I've been a big fan of since Santa Anita Derby Day 2009 and the Santana Mile.

Rodman and Prado fought quite a bit and it just wasn't his day. Apart is no Blame.

Duke of Mischief , ugh. "....but was through after completing three quarters". I took a chance he'd roll from the outside, it didn't happen.

Morning Line? The son of Tiznow was right there and then nothing.

Horse racing, love it!

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: March 27, 2010; Fair Grounds LA Derby Day Pick 3 and Pick 4

Today's edition of The Turk is our 300th posting. The Turk is a modest little venture, with a demographic of folks with questionable reading pleasures and low expectations. Together with Mrs. Turk and my sidekick, The Little Turk, we do this for the love of horse racing and the equine stars who never break our hearts in free agency or sexual assaults or gun using thuggery.

The Turk took a well earned handicappers holiday last weekend. It's important when you aren't feeling it to step back and not sign into your Youbet account. That's a lesson that only age and the maturity and wisdom of older and sage horseplayers has taught me.

I'm enjoying handicapping today with my online HRTV account streaming coverage of Dubai World Cup Day. A Turk's favorite, Good Ba Ba will be running soon and then early this afternoon will be the Grade I 10.0 MM World
Cup and I'll be curious to see Gitano Hernando (GB) and this very even field. While World Cup Day for me as a fan is fun to watch, and I love the coverage and find it better then the Breeders' Cup, it's not something I'm willing to bet money on; New surface, a long ship in, left turns, eh. Stick with what you know when money is involved, but by all means, watch!

What I am thinking of betting today is the Fair Grounds ticket on Louisiana Derby Day. The weather should be great, the track should be fast, the turf should be firm, and a nice group of stakes races make up the Pick 3 and Pick 4 culminating in a Kentucky Derby prep. Watch the scratches, already since I put together my multi race bets a favorite in Race 7, Tensas Cat, bailed out. Let's get after it!

Fair Grounds Race 7-8-9-10



Race 7 is the Cresent City Derby for 3 YO LA breds. As mentioned previously, Tensas Cat, was scratched by Trainer Garber just a little bit ago. I'll be including the Asumussen runner Heavenville/4 and might be inclined to single him but I will include Redsugar/3 and Productive Energy/9.

Heavenville is switching from turf, something Asmussen wins 22% of the time and Bridgmohan is up, a combo that wins 24% of the time over a whopping 450 races in past year.

Race 8, The New Orleans Grade II, some of the Turk's favorite runners are entered, Giant Oak and General Quarters. While the horse fan in me has the luxury of having favorites, the horseplayer in me coldly stares at the hard copies of the past performances (..that the younger generation think I should stop printing and relying on- I'll be damned before I carry and iPad around the track)and sees Battle Plan gearing up to have a career that just hasn't happened to plan yet. The 5 YO son of horse racing royalty, son of Empire Maker and Flanders for a Dam, his fifth start in his fifth year for trainer Pletcher and Overbrook Farms. Castellano is up, a combo that clips away at 29% in 77 races the past year. 6% win rate in this meet from the 9th post at this distance.

Perhaps a stretch, I'm looking at Stonehouse, son of Chester House, to continue his fine FG running. 14 of 21 in the money on dirt and 5 wins in last 12 starts for Trainer Broussard.

This is a deep field and Awesome Gem from a good post and a FG star, Star Guitar will be in the mix. General Quarters is 8 OF 11 in the money on dirt and could easily tip the applecart over in this handicap. Good stuff this race is!

Race 9 is a another deep race, an approximate 1 1/8 turf affair, the Grade II Muniz Jr Handicap. The top four is an impressive and even grouping of Jet Propulsion, El Caballo, Baletti and Blues Street. I have Blues Street on top but Jet Propulsion, former claimer, looks very strong.

And in the top event, the Louisiana Derby, a thirteen horse field looks to punch their tickets to Kentucky.

Drosselmeyer breaks from post 13. No horse has tried or won from this post at this distance in this meet. While I think the Mott trainee is a good 3 YO who will be competitive this season, I don't think the son of Distorted Humor is that special. Prove me wrong big guy, Desormeaux up.

A Little Warm has just a little respect. I stubbornly add him to my Derby favorites lists as I think he's a solid, competitive runner for Owner Evans and Trainer A. Duttrow. Cohen up, a combo that wins 34% on 128 races.

Discreetly Mine will most likely be the post time favorite, and deservingly so. 4 of 5 in the money on dirt, a FG win, trainer Pletcher points him here after a G2 Risen Star win.

Fly Down has Trainer Zito poised to break some hearts. Training fast, a win at this distance, a nice post draw, I'll be accounting for him.

It's a nice good of runners in these races on what looks like a beautiful day in New Orleans. Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 23, 2009: The Arlington Classic $150K Turf

Race 11 AP: The Arlington Classic; 1 1/16 on Firm Turf for 3 YOs



A quick look at the Tote Board Ranking shows I built my handicap around the bettors fourth choice, a sweet spot in terms of value. Unfortunately the weather didn't cooperate and the turf remained firm and the horse did not cooperate, as Orthodox stumbled from the gate, got a bit rank, and was done.

Overall, not a bad handicap, as I predicted the chalk Golden Mexico (IRE) would not win and I had 4 of the top 5 horses which is usually enough for me to matrix bet and win, but No Inflation got in my way.

I was Superfecta hunting and had 4 boxed 10 cent Super's for $2.40 each. I knew with this field it would be a tough bet, but that's what makes it fun when you do win.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 23, 2009; The Arlington Classic (Turf) $150,000

The Turk loves Turf races at Arlington Park. To me it feels like summer. This year I vowed to spend more time paying attention to the turf course leading up the the premier event at Arlington, The Arlington Millions. As many of you, that fine looking colt above, Spirit One, shocked me senseless last year. I plan on looking closely each week at Arlington and we'll see if we can't get better picking these turf races. For my first handicap of 2009 at Arlington I chose The Arlington Classic $150,000 stakes today.

Race 11 (6:59 ET Post) Arlington Park; The Arlington Classic; 1 1/16 miles on Turf for 3 YOs.



The track handicapper installed Giant Oak and Golden Mexico (IRE) as the ML favorites. I don't think he did a bad job, but we aren't looking for safe chalk are we? I'm going to go straight Tri and 10 cent superfecta hunting today. It will be challenging because I think the overall field is very good and I had no throwouts. I'm looking at Orthodox and Southern Anthem as two horses that could upset the apple cart. El Crespo may be back on the surface he really enjoys. The forcast is calling for sporatic rain and there will be several other turf races before this, so course condition may play a factor.

Build your handicap, set a betting limit, and go hunt for value. Good stuff indeed.

The Turk is looking at Hollywood Park later today as well, the Grade II Milady Handicap featuring a titanic battle of Zenyatta and Life is Sweet. The money these two draw will be heavy and some good horse in that field will go off at 15-1. That should make any handicapper drool.

Have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: March 14, 2009 - The Louisiana Derby Grade 2

The Turk was blown away by this field. I could have made an arguement for at least six of the horses here to win. If I had one race I could be at today, it would be this one. I'm happy to see at least one California runner, Papa Clem, ship in to test on dirt and take a shot at the $600,000 purse. For the sharp eyed amongst you, that fine looking colt is Pyro, winner of the 2008 Louisiana Derby. Photo by Vanessa Ng.

Fair Grounds Race 9: The Louisiana Derby, Grade II. 1 1/16 miles on real dirt for 3 YOs.



I made the strongest arguement with myself for Friesan Fire. The two time Grade III winner is working very fast and I like the current form , the J/T stats, and just about everything about this A.P. Indy colt, especially the fact he doesn't have A.P. in his name. This colt is no lock, not by a long stretch, so even a win bet at >3-1 is possible. With so many combinations I think that could fill out a ticket, I'm going to focus on a few, Friesan Fire included, to put together some value exactas and Tri's.

In the next gate is Papa Clem. Trainer Gary Stute clearly does things his way, as evident by the work routine he has Papa Clem doing, and his decision to leave an easier San Felipe behind for this. The Turk likes this move quite a bit, and Papa Clem doesn't have to win this, just look impressive on the dirt and I'll be happy.

Here I go again as well, picking Giant Oak to do well based on very little performance. The Giant's Causeway son needs a statement race today, and must win or place in my mind to justify the high regard he is given.

Patena, Terrain, Uno Mas, and Flying Pegasus will all be competitive. I'll be watching, but betting, I'm not so sure yet.