Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 14, 2009; The National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga

There are days like today that seem like nothing is going right and then boom! It all just clicks into place, like a lazy day on Bourbon Street drinking a bit of, well, bourbon, and enjoying a fine cigar.

The Turk was traveling back from Lincoln, Nebraska this afternoon and trying to return to the Little Turk and Mrs. Turk in Buffalo. I was on standby for all my return flights. I was the last person picked to fill the plane in both Lincoln and then again in Chicago. That's lucky.

Last night, the Turk handicapped the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga while he ate dinner at his hotel. It was obvious to me that the field was very competitive, full of serious Grade II runners. As I said in my pre race post, I thought it was too competitive to expect much better then an Exacta and that I expected to try just a few super's for kicks. I stuck to my plan.

While sitting in the Lincoln Airport, I reviewed my handicap and felt pretty good about my top two. I worked my handicap, didn't second guess myself and bet $20 on the 8/9, my straight Exacta handicap. I was rewarded with a $580 return.

Race 8 SAR: The National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on Turf for 3 YOs.



I bet well before the race went to post, but a handicapper needs to develop their own morning lines and have a good feel what odds a horse will go off at. You won't always be right, but the better your handicap, the more approximate your handicap will be to the better track handicappers morning lines. I knew the payouts would be good on this race. I bet an additional six dollars only on 2 straight super's and a tri.

Handicapping and betting are two different skill sets. For many years I sabotaged good handicaps with bad betting. I'm still not a great bettor, but I'm improving. In the face of serious parity, for a low risk bettor, pass. Regardless, the worst thing any bettor can do is be reckless. It's the quickest path to a negative ROI. I went defensive. I chase super's but this one was a tough chase.

The Turk is writing this with the Little Turk next to me, Mrs. Turk close by and Kay, the foundation Weimaraner against my leg.

Life is Good. I'm a lucky man. Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: August 14, 2009; The National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes Grade II on Turf

The Turk finds himself in Nebraska tonight doing his day job as best as he can. After hours I got lonesome thinking about Saratoga and after a quick trip to the business center at the Marriott I emerged with a copy of the Past Performances and a dream. I needed a fix. The drug of choice today is the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Grade II on Turf and an impressively balanced field of 10 runners to sort out. Let's get after it!

Saratoga Race 8: National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes Grade II; 1 1/8 on Turf for 3 YOs.


The weather in Saratoga looks to be wonderful tomorrow, so expect firm turf by race time, but make sure you check the condition of the turf, as all grass ain't the same to all horses.

After running through the PPs I started to build a list of potential Top Four runners. With a 10 horse field, I had eight potential Top Four candidates. That's a problem, but as a handicapper pulling a win off with a field like this is what gives me the euphoria I seek. Build your handicap without fear when facing parity. This isn't low hanging fruit. There will be easier scores to be made on the card tomorrow, so if you don't feel it, don't bet it. Be a humble handicapper, even the best get it wrong regularly.

The Turk likes Courageous Cat to win. I tried to find a reason to not pick the Mott entry, but I could not. Coming off a solid 1 1/16 turf win with a BSF of 94. Works well in the morning. Breaking from the 8 spot, Jock Desormeaux will get a good look at the pace and may even take the lead or will run just off of likely pace setters Straight Story and No Inflation.

Next to Courageous Cat in the 9 gate is Sal The Barber. A bit raw, but lots to like. His best effort was on good turf and his firm turf work is a bit of a leap of faith to have him this high. Trainer Clement has some wonderful stats going for him as well: 22% 31-60 day layoffs, 22% Turf Wins, 24% Graded Stakes wins, and J/T combine for 27% of wins over past year.

Straight Story is good enough to win here and some tickets will have him in the top spot. A solid Grade II turf threat, has three 90+ BSF efforts in a row.

Conservative is a classy Unbridled's Song son returning to Turf for the first time since February. The talent is there and A. Garcia is up.

A bit of a live and long for me is a Roger Attfield runner Midnight Mischief.First time on turf, something Attfield hits 17% of time. I don't think he can win, but a top 4 would sweeten the superfecta payout significantly.

I have some good horses buried in the pack. The reality is that the field has alot of parity and that should produce odds that make attractive payouts. I plan on betting a modified matrix in search of an exacta and then I'll build a few super's for a hoot.

The Turk didn't get much right in the Arlington Millions last weekend except for Gio Ponti, but that wasn't a surprise to anyone.

Race 9 Arlington 8/4/09: The Arlington Millions Grade I: 1 1/4 Miles on Turf for 3 YOs and Up.





The Turk travels home tomorrow and is getting excited for another two days in the Saratoga clubhouse next weekend. Enjoy. Turk Out!