The Nomination Is In: January 3, 2010; The Hal's Hope at Gulfstream & Post Race Analysis for The Count Fleet & San Gorgonio Hcp.

The fine looking, Allen Jerkens trained horse to the left is none other then two time Grade III winner, Le Grand Cru, the Turk's tepid chalk in the Grade III Hal's Hope on opening day at Gulfstream Park. Yesterday's two handicaps kicked off another year of publicly handicapping the ponies for The Turk. While I would have loved to report a big splash, it was more workmanlike and typical of the type of racetrack scores that don't kill you but don't make you rich either. Let's talk about yesterday and then get to today!

Race 8 Aqueduct: The Count Fleet Stakes; 1 mile and 70 yards on fast inner track dirt for 3 YOs and Race 8 at Santa Anita: The San Gorgonio Handicap Grade III; 1 1/8 miles on firm turf for F&M 4 YO and Up.



Full disclosure. I fell asleep yesterday afternoon and woke up with a few minutes to post at Aqueduct in the Count Fleet. I was less excited about this race anyhow after Peppi Knows scratched. I expected a better effort from Ibboyee and I hated the odds this horse was bet down to. I also liked my base handicap and didn't like the idea of a sub $10 exacta winner so I shook off the cobwebs, looked at the Tote Board and bet my 2nd and 3rd choices, which lined up with what the bettors thought as well. Laus Deo rewarded my rather lazy and uninspired bet, but a win is a win.

At Santa Anita, the scratch of Life Is Sweet eliminated a serious money magnet from the mix. I waited patiently on the tote board to see how the bettors responded and the response was about what I expected: Diamondrella was bet down to near even money with money spread nearly evenly between Cat by the Tale, Treat Gently (GB) and Diamondrella (GB). About the best value on the board was Century Park, who pre race I said would set the pace and get gobbled up at the top of the stretch, which is exactly what happened. Without a strong opinion I relied on my first impression of the race, my base handicap. Using it I constructed a win bet, an exacta and I came close to a Superfecta. I had the superfecta lined up to bet but it was a 5 horse box and I didn't think the reward was worth the bet. In hindsight I miscalculated and I left about 24 bucks at the window that should have been mine but mistakes happen, even in the confines of my quiet den. Mistakes are multiplied at the track itself with all kinds of distractions, so do your homework before you get to the track.

The results of the day were positive but more the result of good bet construction then handicapping. I don't always focus my blog on the bet construction mechanics for time constraint reasons, but soon I will do a cradle to grave blog post with spreadsheets and all on both side of the equation. I get more satisfaction from the handicapping side of things, but I get less grief from Mrs. Turk when the betting side of it pans out. A dichotomy for this horse players soul for sure!

Race 8 Gulfstream Park post time 4:43 ET; The Hal's Hope Grade III; 1 Mile on Dirt for 4 YOs and Up.



The best horse in the race is Quality Road followed by Harlem Rocker, two Pletcher trainees. That said, both enter with questions to answer and will hit the top four on class and skill more then anything else, and either could win, but I'm hunting for value and I like Le Grand Cru to win his third straight Grade III.

Le Grand Cru last raced in late October and has strung two straight upper 90 BSFs together to win two Grade III events. Working steady and fast at GP since mid December. The 5 YO son of Dynaformer is detirmined and will strike the lead early and won't cave in even if he slips back in the middle points of call. Sure its a crap shoot but most likely enters the post >5-1. No worse then fourth.

Harlem Rocker is a grade I winning miler who has raced once in over 14 months. :59 2/5ths at 5f in a handride just before XMAS, sharp enough to be competitive, talented enough to win.

Quality Road needs no introduction to most observers of our sport. Supremely talented, a bit of a tease, I do like him at 1 mile more then >8f but this is the first time back in a starting gate for real since the meltdown on live TV two months ago. I was surprised not to see some gate break training works but I'm not an Eclipse Award winning trainer so I'll zip it.

The rest of the field is a mixed bag, with the best of the bunch being You and I Forever. I'm looking at Spin Master as possibly busting into the top four.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 2, 2010: The San Gorgonio Handicap Grade II; 1 1/8 Miles on Turf at Santa Anita

When you wake up to 12 inches of snow and near zero degree temperatures, you develop a fondness for places like Arcadia, California about this time of the year. Luckily the Great Race Place provides plenty of stakes race action from now until I can actually see the grass in my front yard again to keep me occupied. Work is bringing me back to Southern California soon, but for today's San Gorgonio Handicap and tomorrow's Monrovia Handicap, I'll have to be content with the internet TV feed, YouBet and my snuggie. Let's Rock!

Race 7 Santa Anita, post time 6:36 ET; The San Gorgonio Handicap Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on lush and firm Arcadian turf for Fillies and Mares 4 YO and UP.



With Life is Sweet in this group, its hard to look past the Breeders' Cup Distaff champion, and the money will flow towards her, which makes Diamondrella even harder to ignore. A turf race last race best 93 BSF, she seems to like softer footing, with two 100+ BSF on softer footing. The turf will be firm today but look for an upper 90 BSF and a top three finish for the IEAH Stables, Gary Stevens trained runner. 7 wins in last 11 starts. 12 of 17 in the money on Turf. The distance and the footing will be a challenge but a classy mare nonetheless. I've been a Gary Stevens fan for a long time and here's hoping that he finds his way as a trainer, the sport could use his class and horseman instincts.

Treat Gently (GB)is a Cape Cross (Ire) daughter whose making only her third North America start since July. Transferred to the care of Conditioner Mott by her owners, Juddmonte Farms, after the loss of Bobby Frankel. Training steady since running a solid 1 1/8 on the turf at Woodbine, the problem being that the race was 1 1/4 miles long. More then capable of winning, look for this horse to be no worse then the bettors third choice, possibly second, and no lower then 7-2. I'd like to see more production for such a short price, but 6 of 9 in the money on turf lifetime and a Racing Post Rating of 116 on firm turf in France. Has beaten Dar Re Mi. What we'll get today, I dunno.

I actually have Life is Sweet in the Place spot but I'm planning on boxing her around from 1-4 and I also don't know what to expect when we see the poly monster touch the turf for the first time since May 2008, something "It" Trainer John Shireffs only pulls off 9% of the time. Trainer Shireffs does know a thing or two about graded stakes races though, winning 42% of them over the past year and Shireffs and G. Gomez, who don't team up very often, win when they do. Idle since the Breeders' Cup, training nicely with a sharp 6f 1:11 4/5ths for the 5 YO daughter of Storm Cat.

Another Storm Cat descendant, Cat by the Tale, the 5 YO daughter of Tale of the Cat, breaks from the outside and will go off at very attractive odds of >6-1. I don't think she can win from the post and against the company here, but a competent runner who has 4 turf wins in 12 starts and was 6 of 6 in the money in 2009. 2 Wins on SA Turf of the 5 wins on SA Turf in the whole field. Coming back to turf after a go in the Grade II Bayakoa in early December, something Trainer Drysdale pulls off 21% of the time.

Century Park will push the pace but expect to see her gobbled up by the top of the stretch. Rosa Grace (GB) goes with blinkers on today and can handle the distance as well as put up a solid mid 90's BSF. Not a winner, taking the tape only 1 time in last 9 and not at all in 2009. Teamgeist (ARG) is also winless in 2009 as a 6 YO and its hard to say what's still in the tank at 7. Mike Smith is up for the McPeek trainee.

I'll be playing a few exactas with combinations that have Life is Sweet, Diamondrella and Treat Gently on top. 10 cent supers are in play and that will make up the remainder of my betting.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

PICK SIX CARRYOVER OF $115,261 KICKS OFF NEW YEAR, SANTA ANITA POST TO OFFER NINE RACES ON SATURDAY. Due in large part to a 58-1 stunner in race seven, the New Year got off to a raucous start at Santa Anita, as the popular Pick Six eluded 11,695 on-track attendees and as a result, $115,261 will be carried over into Saturday’s Pick Six, which will be offered on races four through nine.