The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
The Diana represented an opportunity to remember a cardinal rule in horse racing: look for the underlays and overlays and exploit the inefficiency in the tote board odds. With Morning Line odds of 1-1 (50%), a Turk Fair Line of 2-1 or 33%, and an absolutely ridiculous post time tote board odds of 3-5 (62.5%), She Feels Pretty was an overlay. The overlay was there, I just wished a bigger field challenged her, as with one scratch only four other horses went to the gate, and there just wasn't a deep closer talented enough to bump She Feels Pretty from the Show spot, where the real exacta value would have been. Credit where credit is due, Excellent Truth brought it but was the second best odds on the board which gave us a $2 Exacta Payout of only $17.
Horse race handicapping is all about identifying who should win. Bet Construction is about creating value. She Feels Pretty is one hell of a horse, arguably the second best horse Lael Stables has ever fielded behind the mighty Barbaro. Multiple Grade 1 winner, success at Saratoga. I wasn't betting against the horse, I was looking for value, looking for an underlay, and reacting to unreasonable odds placed on the Mare by the betting public. This was sort of a gross example but you get the idea, avoid the hoopla, look for chaos.
She Feels Pretty/Photo Credit: Courtney Snow/Past the Wire
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.
$5.50 for a DRF Formulator Card at Saratoga, a price increase from DRF over the past year, after to be fair, the price was held constant for a very many years. Still, for the monopolies that hold a tight reign over the information in this sport, it does seem excessive. I say all that because it's hard to make a return on investment capital plus the high cost of information when you get a six horse Diana where the morning line favorite is 1-1, 50% of the odds. That is, unless we can make a case for her to finish in Place, or worse. That favorite is She Feels Pretty: 10-10 lifetime in the money, 2 starts at SAR, both in the money, the last on yielding turf at 1 3/16th was a career best 100 Beyer. 2 of 2 at the distance. Lot's to like but 50%, this is less of a handicapping exercise and more of a betting opportunity.
Let's get after it.
The Diana G1: 1 1/8 Miles on Inner Turf for F&M 4 YO and Up
Most of the other runners competed in either the Gamely G1, Just a Game G1 or Jenny Wiley G1. Let's take a peak.
12 April 2025 KEE: The Jenny Wiley G1: 1 1/16 Miles on Good Turf.
6 June 2025 SAR: Just a Game G1: 1 Mile on yielding turf.
26 May 2025 SA: The Gamely G1: 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf
Finally, She Feels Pretty.
6 June 2025 SAR: The New York G1: 1 3/16ths on yielding turf.
A different horse from a different time, but Lael Stables silks with a #8 Saddle Cloth always makes me think of this guy, the horse that made me start blogging, Barbaro. Hard to believe next year will be 20 years!
Barbero: Photo Eliot Schechter/epa/corbis
So what are we going to do with all this? As I said, we have to bet against the heavy favorite. Horse racing code compels me, and even at a more realistic 2-1, 33% odds, there is still a 6 in 10 chance she loses.
I like late closers Dynamic Pricing (Ire) or Lady Claypoole (Ire) to get her late. The scratch of Be Your Best (Ire) however changes the race pace dynamics greatly, as his early pressure will be missing and I think that leaves Choisya (GB) and Excellent Truth (Ire) to press She Feels Pretty early. Choisya's last outing at SAR was a disaster on yielding turf. You can find Track Condition and Scratches and Changes Here. Current inner turf condition is yielding and its raining.
3-4-5 OVER 1-3-4-5, a $2 Exacta for $18 seems a bit pricy. 3-4-5 Boxed is $12. I'll be thinking down these lines later today.
Sadlers' Joy ar SAR: (c) NYRA/Chelsea Durand/Adam Coglianese Photography
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog. To those that know me, welcome back and to any new readers, thank you for visiting. The Turk Blog is in our tenth year of handicapping Graded Stakes Racing in the United States and Canada. I'm a handicapper first and a bettor second. I don't consider myself a "tout", quite frankly hate the term, and if my 30+ years of handicapping has taught me anything, it has been to stay humble.
My primary target today is a Pick 3 beginning with Race 8, the G1 Vanderbilt Stakes. I may start that P3 with Race 9, the G2 Bowling Green and end it with an OC Turf race with a big field instead of trying to read the tea leafs on the Vanderbilt. Regardless, my focus early is on the Bowling Green and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, so let's get after it!
I honestly never understood how people could handicap at the track. After taking a course a few semesters ago on how people learn, I realized that my process requires quiet. I get up early and handicap with a cup of coffee and a very quiet house and I generally do pretty well. I wish I could be that guy in Section K of the Clubhouse scribbling away but it's not. Know thyself! I think I know myself pretty well, and boy do I love gutty and honest turf runners like Sadlers' Joy pictured above. I don't know if he'll win or not, but I know he'll show up and contest the route of grass.
Sadlers' Joy is 3 of 4 in the money at SAR, 3 of 4 in the money in 2018, 66% of the time in the money over turf and 71% of the time in the money at this distance. He'll be dragging behind the pace before his speed comes with a very late turn of foot. Trip is so key. Castellano is up while Leparoux is on the long shot Glorious Empire (Ire). Typical effort seen below in the Manhattan G1. Money Multiplier finishes in Place, alot. 33% Place Finisher, 65% lifetime in the money. Trainer Chad Brown with I. Ortiz, up, are 28% winners at SAR and Brown is a 27% Turf winner. Ok, not stunning effort in the United Nations I posted below.
Hi Happy (Arg) has been a fun horse to watch this year. 4 of 4 in the money in 2018. He'll be the one that Sadlers' Joy will have to race past if he wants to win. Take a look at him repulsing Sadler's Joy in the G1 ManOWar below.
I like Bigger Picture and Highland Sky with late speed to possibly get into the ticket. It's hard to not like a Mott horse but 4 YO Channel Maker I need to see more from but no denying his late speed either.
G1 United Nations
G1 Manhattan
G1 ManOWar en Espanol for Hi Happy (Arg)
In the Jim Dandy we are faced with a five horse field, of which 50% odds of winning have been placed on the 5 horse Vino Rosso. I'm feeling contrarian and I'm making a case of Mark Casse's Flameaway. Watch him crumble badly here at the top of the stretch.
The G3 Ohio Derby
This is a good horse, a Scat Daddy Ontario Bred. Reride should be the only other early speed.
Vino Rosso won the Wood Memorial and is a solid Curlin, but 1-1 odds? Let's look at the Tampa Derby where he finished up the track from the Place finisher, Flameaway.
I take nothing away from Vino Rosso, he didn't set his own odds, Less experienced players may want to just single Vino Rosso in a multi race exotic horizontal bet. I'm less interested in winning small as I am in risking small to make big. I'll be curious where his odds are at post time.
Another Curlin, Tenfold should not be completely discounted.
I'll be building bets later today and you'll find my thoughts on Twitter later (you can find me on the link in the right header of my blog).
While I "won" both bets, I hunted for value in the CCA Oaks and didn't get it. On $16 wagered I returned $55.60 for a $39.60 profit.
The G1 Diana at SAR 7/21/18: DRF PDF Chart
I really like that Sistercharlie (Ire) and so did the bettors. It was me being less concerned about a small wager return or a loss and inserting Ultra Brat and Hawkmoor, the 4th and 5th horses in my handicap, to finish in the Place exacta spot that made the bet. Once you reach that place as a gambler that you'll sacrifice capital for larger strikes you'll....get humbled back or go broke! Always bet within your means.
G1 CCA Oaks at SAR 7/22; DRF PDF Chart
I'd like to wish Justify a happy retirement as well. I've now been alive for 5 Triple Crown Winners and it's nice that I most likely will never have a time in my life again where there are no living Triple Crown winners, as that was a bit depressing. I wagered $556 in the Triple Crown Season on almost no handicapping as I was deep into my final semester of school and I am also wildly busy at work. I returned $857.25 for a $301 profit. While not a great ROI, I considered it easy money. My only losing bet was a Preakness bet against Justify. Like I said, I'd rather lose now and then but take swings at long balls because if I would have connected that would have been a four figure payout.
Welcome friends to the Turk and the (now not so) Little Turk blog, now in our eleventh season of blogging about thoroughbred horses. To anyone that knows The Turk, they know that he likes Turf and he likes older runners. Call me old fashioned. I got my start in handicapping in 1986. I was already a horse racing fan, growing up around family members like my dear Aunt Rosie who loved the ponies. In 1986 I found myself living in Saratoga Springs on Jumel Place, a short walk from the track, and one day I grabbed the form and....had no idea what I was doing. In Turk fashion, I read, I read, and I read a bit more to learn from others what I didn't know myself. My handicapping combines elements of Tom Ainsile, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz and Robert J. Summers, The Buffalo News "Happy Handicapper", Rest in Peace.
I like to think of my handicapping as a derivative of each of these gentleman handicappers, clumped together into Turk style. I like data. I watch video, I crunch fractional split times, and my greatest strength is combining good handicapping with solid betting strategy. I haven't blogged much in 2018 as I was finishing an MBA. My MBA armed me with all kinds of new techniques to know that these race track investments are highly speculative. You can say you want to scratch out a 15% ROI, but the track smacks that type of talk out of you quickly. I ride streaks of 500% ROIs and streaks of -500% ROI's. It happens. I'm happy to break even, scratch out a small profit, because for me, I'm here for the relaxation it brings me and the thrill of the animals. I'm here for mares like Dacita, pictured above, a beautiful Beverly D G1 winner and Scat Daddy daughter, winning the Diana in 2016 for Chad Brown, looking to win this race for a third straight year, which I think he has a great shot at today.
I've featured the Diana for today and the CCA Oaks for tomorrow at the Spa. Let's get after it!
You can find the track conditions, scratches and changes and equipment changes for NYRA/Saratoga here. Today looks bone dry BUT beginning later tonight and it looks like tomorrow will be wet. You'll find the Saratoga Springs hour by hour weather here.
With a seven horse field in the Diana, my first thought is I have two of Chad Brown's three entries one-two with Sistercharlie and A Raving Beauty, with Brendan Walsh's 4 YO 2X Saratoga winner Proctor's Ledge the best upset candidate.
Sistercharlie (Ire) has the best Timeform US Pace Fig late at 131. 6 of 7 in the money on Turf and 7 of 8 in the money lifetime. Brown is 27% over a route of grass. Lost by a head last time out to Fourstar Crook in the G2 New York. Sistercharlie was 28 lengths back, yes 28 lengths and was coming late. With 1/8 less, with this cutback she'll need to be closer, obviously! You have to watch this video.
German bred A Raving Beauty is a 5 YO Mastercraftsman (Ire). Ortiz and Brown are 29% winners together. Two wins in two starts in North America. Edged Proctor's Ledge in the G1 Just a Game in early June.
I think Proctor's Ledge likes softer grass than she'll find today with her last two wins over good turf and her last win over firm turf six starts back.
Ultra Brat comes in off a win over soft turf in the Galorette G3 at Pimlico.
The 5 YO Uncle Mo Motion trained runner is 3 of 4 in the money in 2018.
Hawksmoor (Ire) in those Barbaro silks of Lael Stables has the best Timeform US early pace fig at 114. Trained by Arnauld Delacour, if you're looking for a price this isn't a bad one.
I'm going to keep it simple with a $2 Exacta 1-(7 and 5) (Sistercharlie over Hawksmoor and Ultrabrat) for $4.
A rather small 5 filly field will challenge each other in Sunday's Grade 1 CCA Oaks G1. Just because, let's go off on a tangent and watch Ruffian set the race record when it was a 1 1/2 mile race at Belmont. 1975. I was 9. I looked forward to reading Sports Illustrated every week. I think it was a good way to live, but hard to beat the instant information age 9 YO's live in now.
Midnight Bisou, a Midnight Lute, is my tepid chalk. A big win under big money Mike Smith in the Grade 2 Mother Goose last time out. A 4 horse affair.
Monomoy Girl will be the post time favorite, of this I am sure. 7 win sin 8 starts and 8 of 8 in the Money lifetime for the Kentucky Oaks winner. Dominant that day.
I like Eskimo Kisses late speed and Chocolate Martini is a solid, not spectacular filly. Gio Game shouldn't be a factor.
$2 Exacta Box: 2-4-3 for $12.
I handicapped the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar only to be typing this blog and have at least 4 horses scratch in a 10 horse field, including Accelerate. Yawn.
Today I pulled together all the video on every stake race run at the Saratoga Springs from the opening of the Meet through August 2.
I've never had a very good ROI at Saratoga, especially on the dirt track. The surface doesn't seem to be playing as in years past. I've heard it referred to as playing like Churchill Downs. I don't know about that. When you watch the races back to back like this you will see the rail and the next path over seem to have a bias. I'm sticking to the Turf and just handicapping the main track for kicks.
I'll update this as the weeks go on.
Turk Out!
Turf
Lake George Stakes G3 8.5F 3YO F 21 July
Diana Stakes G1 9f 3YO and Up 22 July
Bowling Green G2 11F 4 YO and Up 29 July
Coronation Cup Stakes 5.5 F 3 YO 31 July
Dirt
Coaching Club American Oaks G1 9F 3 YO Fillies 23 July
Honorable Miss H. G2 6F 3 Yo and Up F/M 26 July
John Morrissey Stakes 6.5F 3 Yo and Up F/M
Curlin Stakes 9F 3 YO
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes H. G1 6f 3 YO& Up 29 July
Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk Post Race Analysis.
Handicapping for these two races was not complicated and in many ways very similar. Both had what should have been overwhelming favorites taking on slightly lesser competition. The Chalks went into the gate at $0.95 to $1 for Lady Eli and $0.70 to $1 for Ashleyluvssugar. It was tee'd up for the classic single the heavy chalk and find value in Place and Show -OR- Beat the favorite and watch the payouts go big (See Arrogate in the San Diego). Speaking of Arrogate, The Turk said pre-race he really hates the returning from Dubai first race back angle. I find it's almost as bad (with smaller sample size) than the first race back after Breeder's Cup. These big events take a toll.
I said Lady Eli would win that race 90 out of 100 times. I still believe that. I said Lady Eli, Antonoe,Dickerson and Quidora would be 1-4 on the tote board and they were. My handicap could have easily netted a $22.20 exacta and $66.50 Trifecta.
It's so rare to see a horse break through the gate and then run well. Lady Eli really impressed me today. I'll be curious where Antonoe is pointed next as I'm still high on the physically big filly.
In the Eddie Reed, my real coup was where I rated Mr. Roary. I thought he'd be Place or Show and he was, while the betting public had her sixth out of 7th. It's that sort of edge that separates you from the public and gives you an opportunity to make money in this game. My handicap would have given you the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta. The $2 Superfecta paid $485.60.
Ashleyluvssugar is an inconsistent runner who Stevens usually gets the most out of. Overbet, but the field didn't exactly lend itself to confidence in the other runners. Hunt (Ire) and Mr. Roary should be added to virtual stables and kept tabs of.
Have fun with the races friends. I'll be back with Tuesday's $500,000 Prince of Wales Stakes from Fort Erie.
