The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Who doesn't love a rematch? That's Smiling Tiger, with Rosario up, taking last year's Hollywood Park Triple Bend by 2 plus lengths over Camp Victory, these two, with The Factor tossed in, should make for a speedy seven panels in today's edition.
Is California racing in a bad state of affairs? It may not be at its peak of health, but cards like today's that include the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, with Little Mike, Mr. Commons, Jeranimo, and Turk favorite, Liberian Freighter, make me forget the troubles our sport faces, at least for one day.
The Turk's going to have to wax poetic in my second blog post of the day. I'll be returning for a Pick 3 of Iowa's Festival of Horse Racing, including the Grade 3 Cornhusker, Iowa Oaks and Derby. Favorites struggled last night at Prairie Meadows and we're coming for bear later. For now, Little Turk goes for soccer glory in the Fort Niagara Soccer Tournament and I'm off soon.
I've been really enjoying this meet at Hollywood. I think the fake stuff plays fair, and while I love the atmosphere of Del Mar, I hate that fake surface and will miss Inglewood in a few weeks.
Let's get after it!
I'll be building something out of this following these base handicaps.
WTF moments happen to all of us. I would think Team Mo last weekend had a serious WTF moment watching the 2 year old champion fade badly to Show in the Wood Memorial. How could they not see it coming?
We humans are often quick to label things "the next". I've read quotes comparing Uncle Mo to Seattle Slew. Why does he need to be anything other than Uncle Mo? Forget the horse flesh, Seattle Slew's conditioner prepared that horse differently, even on a compact prep schedule. Take a gander at a nice piece of writing at The Knight Sky and then think about Mo's extended spring break: You can be the best athlete in the world but if you aren't properly trained and placed at the top of your form cycle, you won't be successful. Is any of this new? There is no doubt Uncle Mo is talented, but what possessed the Kentucky Derby winning trainer to take such a conservative route? He is sound were told, why treat him like he has Big Brown's hooves?
Anyway, I'm a handicapper, not a trainer, so I'm not going to ramble on any further on this. I'm not sure what Mr. Pletcher will do to sharpen the colt. Regardless, this internet hack has contributed his darts at the dartboard, or I should say, my studied and considered choices for the top 12 Kentucky Derby contenders for this edition of the Wire Players Derby Dozen.
I remember vividly that the late Michael Hutchence of INXS didn't like to be photographed in promotional events without his bandmates because it was about the band and not the individual. While the Ol' Turk is neither as handsome or talented as Michael, he always respected that feeling and I partially regret posting my own pathetic Derby Dozen choices up separate from my esteemed group, but I think it illustrates how varied our opinions currently are. I freely admit how apathetic I feel towards this years Triple Crown trail. I loved Premier Pegasus, and I dig The Factor, and Santiva interests me, and when I saw Uncle Mo at the Breeders' Cup I thought I'd be putting another Triple Crown winner picture up on the wall, but who knows.
That smilin' cowboy to the left is Larry Jones, the winning conditioner of Havre de Grace, the 2011 winner of the Grade III Azeri at Oaklawn Park on Rebel Stakes day.
The Turk netted $140 bucks but came up just short of his targeted Pick Four bet when the last leg, a Maiden Claimer, didn't go our way. A Superfecta bet on the Azeri did well for me, as I didn't think it was too complicated to have Havre de Grace and Blind Luck 1-2 and then find a few others for Show and 4th. My Superfecta bet in the Rebel came up just off, as Sartaoga Red and JW Blue snuck in ahead of lumbering duo Sway Away and JP's Gusto. Sway Away was a real disappointment and I'm curious where he turns next, while J.P's Gusto is about what I thought he was. The race was very different then what I handicapped with the scratch of Elite Alex and then the late scratch of Alternation, but no excuses.
What do we make of The Factor. I've loved him this spring but perhaps wrongly pigeonholed him as a sprinter/miler. The gallop out showed me he's got 1 1/8 no problem and 1 1/4 may be within reach.
Oaklawn Park Pick Four March 19, 2011
We've finally reached the most interesting part of Derby prep time. The serious runners of the 3 YO crop will be making plans for their final preps and horses we may be discounting at this point will slip under the radar. What a great sport, ain't life grand?
Have fun this week, be safe, show your friends and family you love them. The Turk gave up bourbon and cigars for lent so I'm overcompensating with coffee to keep my cheery disposition intact.
Pictured to the left is a scene that never gets old, Blind Luck and Havre de Grace trading strides to the wire. Havre de Grace, in the Fox Hill Farm red and white silks is now trained by one of The Turk's favorite trainers, Larry Jones, and all seems right in the equine world again. Blind Luck has had two unimpressive efforts as the heavy chalk on Santa Anita dirt, but she brings an impressive 17 of 17 in the money record into today's Azeri at Oaklawn Park and these two four year olds most likely will stage another battle, with only a few others that may challenge them.
Let's get after it!
Oaklawn Park Race 8-9-10-11: the Late Pick 4 including the Grade III Azeri and Grade II Rebel
As always, start your day with a quality past performance. My choice is formulator Deluxe from Daily Race Form that allow me to tailor the information I print, like having split times and workouts embedded in the running lines, and delete the things I don't want, like morning lines. Use whatever makes you comfortable: The Turk endorses no particular product (although I was asked, the only real endorsement deal I have is a product that is uniquely classy and artistic) Also check the track website, the scratches and changes and the weather.
In the opening leg of the late Pick Three and Pick Four we have an Optional Claiming Race with a price tag of $40,000 on two of the runners, run at 6 furlongs for fillies and mares 4 years old and up. While not high on Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, he's clipping along at 19% at this meet and his Glowing Report is my chalk. The filly runs for the fourth time in 2011, in the money in all of them. She'll be challenged by Eve Giselle, unraced in 13 months, Bikini Bella who runs with a price on her head and Bell's Shoes. I may flip Eve Giselle and Bikini Bella but my top four is set.
Race 9 is the Azeri and will be challenged by a field of seven. Blind Luck has run twice since running a solid final quarter to Place as the chalk behind Unrivaled Belle in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. She's Placed twice as a heavy chalk at Santa Anita this spring in two Grade II's with small fields and no pace. The last one, The La Canada is worth looking at for her closing kick.
The La Canada Grade II 13 February at 1 1/8 miles
A paceless, four horse graded workout. Yawn. Gomez gets the mount for trainer Hollendorfer. I'm most impressed by 17 of 17 in the money; 4 wins on fast dirt, 4 fake dirt wins, 4 wins at this distance and a win at OP, $2.45 MM in earnings for an $10,000 foal. Awesome. I wish her luck and she could easily win today, but I'm backing Havre de Grace. First time back since the Breeders' Cup Distaff, but training very well. Perhaps its too much too soon but Trainer Jones wins 38% of his first time with trainer runners and 42% of his 61-180 day layoffs and she ran very well off a longer break before. It's a flip of a coin.
Spacy Tracy and Absintheminded seem to have the best chance to send the chalks to the curb. Spacy Tracy is Anthony Dutrow trained and looks to turn the table on his previous charge, Havre de Grace. Two very sharp 4F in :47 and change makes the six year of Mare look attractive. Absintheminded, with Borel up for Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is in very good current form and makes the third start of her current form cycle. She bombed in three graded stakes races in 2010 before bouncing back against softer competition. Consider defensive bets at the right price!
In Race 10 we have the Grade II Rebel. Let's look back first at two key races, The Southwest at OP and The San Vincente at SA.
The Southwest Stakes Grade III 21 February at 1 Mile
6 wide at the top of the stretch, Archarcharch was in good position and drew away but Elite Alex had a lousy trip and was coming on and Picko's Pride had a good final 1/4 mile too, while J.P.'s Gusto was game and needed a few more hops (or an extra 1/16 of a mile).
The San Vincente Grade II 20 February at 7 furlongs
The two races are similar in that I like the losers a bit more than the winners, with no disrespect to Archarcharch or The Factor intended.
My chalk, albeit tepid, is Sway Away. I like the way he grinded through the smoking fast opening fractions and rallied and he wins with 30 more feet. I'm a big fan of The Factor already, and maybe I'm wrong, but he seems more like a dominant one turn sprinter. We'll find out. His sire, War Front was a grade II winning sprinter and its hard, not impossible, to outrun your DNA.
Elite Alex was six wide and was very impressive coming up the lane in the Southwest. J.P's Gusto had a better trip and I reckon should have beaten Archarcharch but didn't. Both are formidable. Picko's Pride took a big run up the lane too but let's keep him in perspective. The Factor and Archarcharch will be competitive and I also expect a good run from a Distorted Humor son, Alternation. Training very sharply and comes in off a nice N3L at 1 1/16 miles at OP. Watch the tote!
If your inclined to such things, the pick four ends with a 6f sprint maiden claimer with a $15,000 price tag with nine runners. I've narrowed it down to four, with the 7-3-6-8 my picks. Semiconductor/7 lost by a length in late February at OP at 6f but ran well. Thundersong/3 is the class of the bunch. Who knows but have some fun with it but keep it real: You can't cover everyone.
I'm looking forward to a good day of watching and reasonable betting. The day seems chalky to me and its going to take someone stretching themselves to make the payouts more than pedestrian. Keep the multirace bets within reason as its never fun to spend $100 bucks to make $50.
The end of February marks the start of the heat up on the road to the Kentucky Derby and today someone will emerge from the Fountain of Youth as a favorite in the coming Florida Derby, a key battleground on the run to the roses.
The Turk turns his red gel pen today at the all graded stakes Pick Three which features a solid Grade II field of fillies in the Davona Dale, a field of mixed expectations in the Grade II sprint, The Hutcheson, and then the main event, the Grade II Fountain of Youth.
Thanks to Alex Feldstein for the kewl picture of the Gulfstream Park starting gate. Let's get it on!
Gulfstream Park Pick Three Races 8-10 with first post 4:14 ET
As always, check the weather, the scratches and changes, and the track condition prior to sitting down with your past performances. As I'm doing my handicapping a day or two before the actual race, the subtle differences in the field composition is what screws my pace expectations and base handicap up the most, but no crying, just planning, will lead you out of the valley of darkness.
Race 8 is a one mile one turn Grade II, the Davona Dale, for three year old fillies. I've attached some key race video from the Grade II Forward Gal for fillies from Holy Bull day in late January.
A Grade II for three year old fillies in January? Really? Many of the runners were in the first race of their cycle, not to take anything away from the winner, Pomeroys Pistol who opened up a 4 length lead before hanging in at the wire, but where was the response from the competition at the top of the stretch? Absent.
I'm backing one of those no response fillies, the bettor's chalk from the Forward Gal, Dancinginherdreams, with Leparoux up for trainer John Ward. a sharp :47 4/5ths work last week signals good form and I expecting the extra panel will be hers.
Oh Carole may be a bit of a stretch, and I placed her there without looking at the morning lines. I stopped just now and took a peek and the track 'capper had her at 4-1.
I guess I'll digress and suggest friends that what I did just did should be how you use morning lines: build your own running line (or assign letter grades like me) and then look at some other analysis like morning lines or internet hacks like The Turk (Note: You'll find some really good handicappers on the internet too, like my friends at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, but still, never let anyone influence your opinions or you will never get better.
Oh Carole comes in off a driving win in an N1X on Forward Gal day. Leparoux leaves for Dancinginherdreams but that doesn't mean this girl ain't good an Castellano/Kenneally combined for an overall 29% winners over past year.
I don't know what to make of R Heat Lightning: Making the 5th graded stakes start of her career (the rest of the field have six graded stake starts combined), the horse clearly has very good quality after winning the Grade I Spinaway and placing in the Grade I Frizette and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Also had no response in the Forward Gal, her first race off the layoff and has been training sharply with 4f in :47 and a Pletcher 26% win rate for the 2nd effort off 45-180 days, an a Pletcher/Velazquez team that wins at GP 25%of the time. Don't ignore.
I like Pomeroys Pistol to possibly find the exotic tickets as well as the journeywoman of the group, Evil Queen, making her 11th start.
Not to sound like a broken record, but a Grade II sprint race like race 9, The Hutcheson for Three Year old's in late February seems a bit pointless. That said, the field has 41 starts and has won 22 times, so we'll leave the discussion of what constitutes a graded stake to more intelligent types and handicap whomever shows up.
I like Madman Diaries as my chalk, the morning line 6-1 and fourth choice. A homebred for trainer Wesley Ward, training very sharply at 5f. Ward wins 31% of the time coming off 61-180 day layoff, and this horse has been off since the Breeders' Cup, my only negative. Ward wins 38% of his Turf/Dirt switches and 44% of his route to sprint switches and a gaudy 29% of his dirt races. Very impressive.
Travelin Man will be the bettor's chalk and comes in off a solid 106 BSF maiden breaker in early January. His work has been pedestrian and I'm not going to get all giddy yet but we will take hime seriously.
Crossbow is a Bernadini son from a Forest Wildcat mare. Dominguez gets the mount for trainer McLaughlin and looks to step forward after two solid previous races. Could step forward or step back, we'll see.
Flashpoint is another maiden only winner with high expectations. The Florida bred son of Pomeroy will look to run loose and I'm thinking he'll fade near the end but we'll see.
I like Razmataz and Manicero to possibly hit the exotic and I've soured on Black N Beauty since the Holy Bull but the distance drop may be the ticket. Leave of Absence needs to do something today.
In the Fountain of Youth I'm a fan of To Honor and Serve but I'm backing Gourmet Dinner today. This is a gut call for me, not the best handicapping methodology, but at least honest. Dominguez is up for trainer Standbridge. the Florida bred banged out a smoking 3f in :34 4/5 this week and a :47 3/5 the week before at 4f.
This is gambling, and while I'm gambling I'll throw Shackleford in there for place: a nice N1X win in early February and I expect him to rate off the pace and be there late.
To Honor and Serve is a heavy hitter, a $575,000 KEE sale sticker price on the trendy Bernadini son. A two time Grade II winner. Training well for Bill Mott, I just want to see what he has before getting misty eyed.
Soldat goes on fast dirt for the first time today. I'm a fan of War Front's and Danzig heirs but I'm being fickle and tossing the 103 BSF on the slop in mid January and dialing his BSF expectations back to low 90's. If you're going to be wrong, swing for the fences!
I'm planning a Pick Three that looks like this:
And finally, while still not 'capping real well right now, I nailed a no brainer pick three at Santa Anita last week, singling The Factor and making a good bet strategy with the two low level races that sandwiched The San Vincente. Consistency and pattern recognition is always more important than fancy betting angles.
I'll admit it, a 108 Beyer Speed Figure and impressive work, coupled with Bob Baffert and M. Garcia, has me intrigued by the son of War Front, the grey/roan The Factor. This seven panel affair features six Triple Crown nominees should make for an interesting Sunday at the Great Race Place. I'm reckoning The Factor will win, but he'll be pressed by some horses that can be had a good price, namely Premier Pegasus, Sinai and Indian Winter. I'm featuring The Factor as a single in a very cheap Pick Three comprised of two maiden fillies crapshoots and the San Vincente.
Let's get it on!
Santa Anita Pick Three Races 7-8-9 First Post 6:37 ET
In The San Vincente, I'd like to bet against The Factor, and I'm sure I will for $2-$4 dollars on a horse >4-1 but the race seems to be his to lose. 5f in :58 at SA and 6f in 1:12 and 7f in 1:24 2/5ths over the past six weeks. Nice and steady. In case you didn't see this video, watch the explosiveness but remember it wasn't against much.
Baffert's other entry is Sinai. Most likely a stalker, He'll go blinkers off today and he's been training very sharply. Bejarano is up.
Indian Winter beat several of today's runners in an ungraded stake in mid January returning $20. he will most likely stalk as well.
If the fractions get hot City Cool will be able to put up :21 and change and I think Metropolitan Man will also apply pressure to The Factor. Will he rate or will he put the pedal down? I'm going with the latter.
In Race 7, a MSW 54K for California bred fillies, I like Tribal Mistress, Whoopsie and Maggie McGowan in that order. Closing out the P3 Race 9 is a 30,000 Maiden Claimer for fillies 3 YO and I ike Sparrow, Little Mokush, Cheeky Changa and Together Webetter in that order.
i was a bit of a hot mess in yesterday's pick 3 at Fair Grounds. In the Mineshaft I hit a boxed trifecta in an overall losing effort for the day. I pride myself on the grass but I would have never picked Expansion for the win, nor did the bettors who had him 8th of 9 in The Fair Grounds Handicap.
In the Risen Star I backed Santiva and I'm not that disappointed in the effort. I had Mucho Macho Man third, same as the betting public, but he did well in the stretch. I wasn't high on Rouge Romance and expected more from Machen.
