Breeders' Cup 2018 Handicapping Homework: The Breeders' Cup Turf Video Review

Breeders' Cup Turf; Photo Harry How/Getty Images

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

The purpose of this post is to provide the last two and sometimes three races of each entrant in the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf. 

The goal one week out is just to get a feel for the runners and link the past performances to the visual handicapping.  I'll come back tomorrow and start adding my notes and observations for each race.  It's alot of effort that I'll only invest into 3, perhaps 4 races over the coming Breeders' Cup weekend.  Any other betting I do will be done using a tote board handicapping method, strictly taking some low risk/medium reward cracks at positive ROI.

The following are covered here:

• Arlow 4 YO colt.  Sycamore, Kentucky Turf Cup. 
• Channel Maker 4 YO gelding.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green, Manhattan.
• Crystal Ocean (GB) 4 YO colt.  Championship Stakes and September Stakes.
• Enable (GB) 4 YO Mare.  Prix Arc de Triomphe and September Stakes.
• Glorious Empire (Ire) 7 YO gelding.   Sword Dancer and Bowling Green.
• Hi Happy (Arg) 6 YO Horse.  Knickerbocker, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green and Manhattan
• Hunting Horn (Ire) 3 YO Colt.  Arc de Triomphe and Secretariat Stakes
• Liam the Charmer 5 YO gelding.  John Henry Turf Championship
• Magical (Ire) 3 YO Filly.  British Championship Stakes and Arc de Triomphe
• Quarteto de Cordas (Brz) 4 YO colt. Mathias Machline.  
• Roaring Lion 3 YO colt.  QE2 Stakes and Irish Championship Stakes
• Robert Bruce (Chi) 4 YO Colt.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Arlington Million
• Sadler's Joy 5 YO horse.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green, Manhattan.
• Talismanic (GB) 5 YO Horse (2017 BC Turf Winner).  Arc de Triomphe and Prix Foy
• Waldgeist (GB) 4 YO Colt.  Arc de Triomphe, Prix Foy, Prix Saint Cloud

Return back to my blog, The Turk and the Little Turk,  all week leading up to the Breeders' Cup for more content.



The Sycamore G3:  Kee.  Good Turf. 1 1/2 Miles.  18 October 2018




The Kentucky Turf Cup G3;  Kentucky Downs. Good Turf.  1 1/2 Miles.  8 Sept 2018




Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational G1. Belmont.  Soft Turf.  1 1/2 Miles.  29 September 2018




Sword Dancer G1: Saratoga.  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles.  25 August 2018




September Stakes G3: Kempton (UK).  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH.  8 September 2018



Knickerbocker G2;  Belmont. Good Turf.  1 1/8 Miles.  8 October 2018




The Bowling Green G2;  Saratoga.  Soft Turf. 1 3/8 Miles.   28 July 2018



Secretariat Stakes G1; Arlington Park.  Good Turf.  1 1/4 Miles.  11 August 2018




Prix de l' Arc de Triomphe G1.  Longchamp (Fr).  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH.  7 October 2018



Champions Stakes G1. Ascot (GB).  Soft Turf.  1 1/4 Miles RH. 20 October 2018




John Henry Turf Championship G2.  Santa Anita.  Firm. 1 1/4 Miles.  30 September 2018




British Championship Stakes G1 (F).  Ascot (GB). Soft Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH. 20 Oct 2018

Magical (IRE)




Mathias Machline (G1).  Gavea (Brz). Heavy Turf. 1 1/4 Miles LH.  4 August 2018



The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes G1.  Ascot (GB).  Soft Turf. 1 Mile.  20 Oct 2018



Irish Championship Stakes G1.  Leopardstown (Ire).  Good.  1 1/4 Miles  LH.  15 September 2018



Arlington Million G1.  Arlington Park.  Firm.  1 1/4 Miles.  11 August 2018



Manhattan Stakes G1.  Belmont.  Firm Turf. 1 1/4 Miles. 9 June 2018




Prix Foy G2. Longchamp (Fr). Firm. 1 1/2 Miles RH. 16 September 2018




Prix de Saint Cloud G1.  Saint Cloud (Fr).  Good/Soft.  1 1/2 Miles LH. 1 July 2018

The Nomination Is In: The Secretariat and the Beverly D and the R 9-10-11 Pick 3

Million Preview Day July 2009

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

While I'm bummed to not be at this year's edition of Million Day, I know I'll be back soon and I'm still excited to play and be apart of the action.  That's Little Turk and I hanging out on Million Preview Day 2009.  AP gave away hats that day (Little Turk wearing) and I'm sporting a Santa Anita 2008 Breeders' Cup hat.  There should be better horse hats available for fans, but sadly they are mostly junk.

In yesterday's blog posting I put up my thoughts on The Million and this morning I'm fleshing out my thoughts on at least the Pick Three that begins with Race 9, The Secretariat and continues on in Race 10, The Beverly D.

What am I looking for in Turf racers?  I like to see late turn of foot, trip information for at least the last three months of races, gas conditions and distance that the horse has had the most sucess with, and class.  I'm less interested in W-P-S results than the visual look of the race shape and what the horse was able to do with the trip and pace it was presented with.  When judging Euros I use the Timeform information available and gather as much information as I can.

Let's work our way through the video handicapping of both races first.

Let's get after this!

Working backwards, relevant video on Race 10, the 1 3/16 Mile Beverly D.


The Diana G1 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf- Sistercharlie






New York Stakes G2 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf



Jenn Wily G1 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf KEE




Belmont Oaks Invitational G1 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf- Athena (Ire)






2017 Beverly D Stakes G1 1 3/16 Mile Firm Turf




In Race 9, The Secretariat at 1 1/4 Miles for 3 YOs 

Belmont Derby 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf- Analyze It and Hunting Horn (IRE)




Kent Stakes G3 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf: Carrick and Untamed Domain.  The former had no excuse while the later had a horrible trip.







Nasrullah Handicap 1 1/4 Miles Left Handed on Good Ground. Lucius Tiberius (Ire)




You'll find video of the American Derby G3 7 July 2018 at this link:  Dubby Dubbie, Captivating Moon,Pont Du Gard and Real Story.

You'll find a scouting report on Lucius Tiberius and Hunting Horn here.




The cost to benefit ratio of any horizontal bet is the races that add uncertainty, and with that uncertainty, long prices in the Win Spot.  In this sequence, Race 9 to me seems the most possible to produce a >10-1 Winner and possibly>12-1.  Avoid the temptation to cover too many horses, as in my example a 5-2-4 combo at $2 is an $80 bet.  I would rather lose $16 with a chance at winning three figures than bet $80 to make $80.  I'm most likely settling on Lucius Tiberius and Hunting Horn OVER Sistercharlie OVER Robert Bruce, Oscar Performance, Spring Quality and  Almanaar.  I'd actually be OK to $32 but you get the idea.

Have fun Friends!

Turk Out!

Little Turk: Million Day 34th Edition 2016