The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Turf

Highland Reel (Ire)- Jesse Caris, Eclipse Sportswire

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  Friends, I'm a handicapper and gambler first and blogger second, and its days like today when I'm handicapping a lot of races with a bunch of racetrack capital in play that the needle moves more towards degenerate and less towards writer.  I wanted to at least blog my full thoughts about one race before I get lost in the gambling action and I choose one of the harder mysteries for players, the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf.  What makes it hard?  Usually a very big field of outstanding Euro invaders along with the best in the division from North America.  It's complicated by Euros that mostly run on softer ground, speed figs that don't align Beyer's and pace projections that can be challenging to predict.  I find the complexity of the issues the fun part and armed with two sets of Past Performances, a US Timeform and a DRF Formulator, I try to tackle this one head on.  Let's get it on!





I'm looking to the best from North America this year, Beach Patrol, as my chalk.  Chad Brown has Rosario up again (29% winners) and they have won two straight, including last time out Belmont Turf Classic G1 and the Arlington Million G1 before that.  I love the 4 YO's drive and acceleration.






I see little difference in my next group.  Ulysses (Ire) is a very classy 4 YO Galileo (Ire) son with impressive Sir Michael Stoute training and Dettori, up.  I expect he will be the chalk:  6 of 6 in the money in 2017 with $2.2 MM in earnings.  His Juddmonte International G1 win in late August was impressive.



Hunt (Ire) I have more forward that I possibly should have him but I love his two summer 2017 Del Mar Grade 2 wins.  No, he didn't really beat anyone in either win.  I did like Itsinthe post (Fr) in the Del Mar Handicap.





Highland Reel (Ire) and Oscar Performance make up my next grouping.  Highland Reel (Ire) is the defending champ for Trainer Aidan O'Brien, and his last strong performance was Prince of Wales Stakes G1 in June.



Oscar Performance is 4 of 6 in the money in 2017 with $1.1 MM in earnings.  6 wins in 10 turf starts but winless at the distance in only 1 try.  I don't like 3 YO's in this spot.

Fanciful Angel and Sadler's Joy have nice late turns of foot and should be moving forward near the end of the race.  Decorated Knight and Bigger Picture round out my contenders to hit the board.

Have fun with it friends.  Good luck with the gambling.

Turk Out!


I'd be remiss to not remember George Washington, who died at the end of the Breeders' Cup Classic 10 years ago. Gorgeous George was one of my all time favorites and it bothered me to see him brought out of retirement and then run over that sloppy course.  He deserved better.  Rest in Peace George.

George Washington as I want to remember him

Post Race Bet Review and Video: Arlington Million Day

Permian-Ire  with Buick Up

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  Little Turk and I are back after a beautiful weekend in Chicago. 

What a difference a year makes:  Last year we broiled under the sun and this year, while not cool, was far from warm.  Either way, no rain, firm turf and a great time.  

I can never say enough about the Arlington International Racecourse.  They treat you good, the facility is well maintained, and the fan experience for me never fails.  

The only downer for me was the death of Permian and the injury to William Buick.  It literally happened the first hop after the finish line and Little Turk and I saw it happen in real time.  The horse appeared to me to have suffered a terrible break and I told the Little Turk I didn't think he was savable and he wasn't.  Bless his heart, he remembers the dead and he immediately thought of when we saw Turk favorite George Washington break down in the Breeders' Cup Classic on a sloppy track in Monmouth.  Buick's father is quoted as saying William is in good spirits and was set to fly home on the Sunday after the race (Fuller) .  With Scottish (Ire) scratching in the Arlington Million, his day was over.  Now lets just hope we see him up again soon.  

I felt bad for the connections, as they were visibly upset on the track, looking for a divot or anything that may have led to the break and the fall.  I commend the track for getting the temporary barriers up quickly.  I personally don't care for how quickly we move on as a sport when one of the runners breakdowns like that.  I understand the horse player attitude, I witnessed it in my Twitter feed the lack of "dwelling" on it, the desire to forget it quickly, the harassing of anyone that showed empathy.  It's just not me.  It bothered me on Saturday and it bothers me the number of deaths at Saratoga this year. Writers I know and respect constantly downplay it, write it off to coincidence, cite the varied ways the breakdowns happened.  Like I said, I hold onto these deaths longer and I don't have any answers, just an observation that the horse racing media doesn't like to talk about the breakdowns more often, doesn't aid the fan in the process of grief anywhere near as much as they could. 

It's hard to call a day where we risked $476 dollars and grossed $882 in returns unsuccessful, but I was a mess most of the day on my verticals while my horizontal P3's were very good.  Silly me not playing the P4's, which would have made me low four figures, but I left that money on the table.  I said I was a mess, mostly on the bet construction side of things.  In fairness, the handicapping wasn't bad.

Anyway, I've got the charts update with Post Race Info and the bet results are below that.  At least it wasn't that chalky.  

Race 7-Chalk $1.50-1

Race 8- 8th on Tote  $27-1

Race 9- 5th on Tote $5.50-1

Race 10-5th on Tote $5.90 -1

Race 11-2nd on Tote $4.90-1

Race 12- 7th on Tote $12.20-1

Turk Out!

References

Fuller, Harriett (14 Aug 2017): Arlington Fall: Buick Recovering in Hospital following Fall From Permian.  The Sun. Web.  Recovered from https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/horseracing/4231799/william-buick-on-his-way-to-hospital-after-fall-from-permian-in-the-secretariat-stakes-at-arlington/

Post Race Results: The United Nations at Monmouth

The Turk don't brag or self promote.  I've been handicapping for well over 25 years and I can pick winners. The first step before you even try to assemble the exotic bets that I do is learn to place horses in expected ranges of finish.  In a nine horse field, can you get the horses into a Top, Middle and Bottom three to start?  Can you identify solid singles?

The Turk looked at post time 10/1 Bigger Picture (4-1 ML) and saw real value.  Joe Bravo up, big plus.  Trainer Maker 20% on 887 turf races, big plus.  Solid training and a cut back in distance.  A value pick, and contrarian to post time 7/5 Beach Patrol who I like, but hey, this isn't Curlin or even the Lemon Drop Kid. 

Value pick.  No pink sheets.  No fees.  Handicapping and Bet analysis for people who never asked for it!




The Turk cashed tickets on the exacta and trifecta.  Good way to start the second half of the race season.




Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The United Nations at Monmouth

Beach Patrol: Photo Lane's End

Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk blog.

The Turk loves a good head scratcher.  That's what today' United Nations over the grass is to me:  A quality nine horse field, with the turf listed as firm but heavy rains predicted over the next several hours.  The field is still intact but keep your eyes on the track conditions and scratches and changes.


I picked Beach Patrol for my highlighted equine today, but I'm betting against him.  His last win was a gutty effort six races back at Arlington and he's the only Grade 1 winner here, but I'm expecting he'll be heavily bet so I'm thinking contrarian and will fit him into Place and Show.

I'll save my crazy, rapid readers a rambling diatribe and just get after it.




Chad Brown's barn is 23% over the turf, 24% routes and 20% graded stakes, all race highs.  Beach Patrol is 10 of 13 in the money over turf.  I'm shading out of the Win Spot to my own peril.

I'm considering any of three for Win.  Bigger Picture, trained by Michael Maker, with Bravo Up, has two wins at the distance.  The gelded six year old should be in the top 5.

Messi (Ger) has been training sharply for Graham Motion and the seven year old will have a nice price.  Better suited in Show-Exotic spot.

Can'thebelieving (Ire) it's Motion's other entry.  The six year old gelding put a good effort up over Monmouth turf in June and is also training sharp.  Better suited in Place-Exotic.

Itsinthepost (Fr) is 4 of 5 in the money in 2017 and he should put up a solid effort regardless of turf condition.  I like him to Win through Exotic, top 4.

Oscar Nominated is a four year old Kitten's Joy colt running for Michael Maker.  He's a bit slower than the rest of the field but is my only remaining candidate for the top 4.

That's six horses being considered for top four slots.  I'm not going to overthink this one too much.

Beach Patrol should set the pace.  I'm looking for Itsinthepost to rally for the Win as most likely scenario.  My base handicap is a rare deviation for me and I didn't base handicap and instead built a possible exotic bet structure.  I may keep it simple and put 3-5-7 OVER 2-1, a $2 bet for $12.

My trifecta may be 2 OVER 1-3-5-7 OVER 1-3-5-7-8, a $2 bet for $32.   Whatever I do today, I'm not over covering and I'm prepared to lose for a reasonable chance at least double the return if I win.


What ever you do, handicap yourself and bet responsibly.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The All Grade 1 Pick 3 (race 9-10-11) at Belmont Park

Spectacular, Spectacular!  Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 9th year.  We specialize in old school handicapping based on a derivative of the style Tom Ainsile, Brad Free and Steve Davidowitz.  Old School: Class, Pace, Conditions, Tactical Speed.

I love the big days.  I get excited at seeing the best in the sport race on the same day, and in our declining sport, these days are fewer and fewer and less and less spectacular.  This isn't the blog that analyzes ways to improve the sport.  If you unfortunately wandered into this blog all you can expect is no BS, no bravado, free opinions that will reward you  the opportunity to turn big piles of cash into slightly smaller piles of cash more often then not.  That's the game, its stacked mostly against players.  Be diligent, be smart, bet and handicap with consistency and with time, skill and luck, you'll scratch out a break even or positive ROI, return on investment.  It's very cool if you just like to drop a few bets every year with friends.  In that case, ignore me, and my picks are in the chart below.  If you're a horse player more than a few times a year, work at your craft, study the losses as much as you study the wins, bet responsibly and have fun.

The Belmont isn't a race I particularly like to handicap, with it's extra quarter mile and long straight, it's been a bit of a graveyard for me.  When I stepped back after handicapping, I thought I'd share my all Grade 1 Pick 3 (Race 9-10-11) with you instead of trying to read the tea leaves on a race 11 exotic.

Multi Race betting is a great way to think about the card horizontally , with less of a focus on single race vertical slotting.  As an exotic player, I can typically roll through a card pretty quickly if I'm just identifying exacta possibilities, and that's how I approach multi race horizontal bets, just as a series of exacta's.  How many you cover, taking a strong view and singling,  and how much value you can find, is always the key.

Let's get after this!

Race 9-10-11;  First Post 4:41 ET






In Race 9 we have the Grade 1 Met Mile.  I'm still not sure I'm happy the race moved from Memorial Day, but again, this isn't the sort of blog that has much credibility with such topics, you can find all sorts of haughty, elitist opinions if you try harder.

I have 5 horses in my Exacta possibles, with two covers for the Pick 3.  I don't think I'm really offering value as I suspect both Sharp Azteca and Mor Spirit will both be bet hard.  Rally Cry, a Pletcher/Velazquez Up  combo, is 3 of 3 in the money at the distance and BEL and the 4 YO Uncle Mo colt will be 3rd or 4th on the Tote Board.  Economic Model/7 goes Blinkers off, something Trainer Chad Brown has mixed sucess with at 17%, but its his second effort off a long layoff and Brown is 28% on that angle and he's a hot 30% on dirt.  Mark Casse's Awesome Slew will also be 4-6 on the tote board and has a fantastic late burst, on display in his last two races at 7f.

In Race 10, we have one of the premier turf races of the year, The G1 Manhattan. I also am covering horses here that should be bet heavily.  Beach Patrol, winner of G1 Secretariat on Arlington Million Day 2016, is a front runner less of a late turn of footer and I typically prefer the latter to the former over a route of grass.  Time Test (GB) has monster numbers and Chad Brown's Juddmonte invader may be setting up for a big summer.  This may be the race he steps forward and joins his barn's plans.  Leparoux's choice of mounts, World Approval, a beauty of a 5 YO Northern Afleet, must be respected.  Three horses I think represent opportunity and value: Potemkin (Ger), on Lasix for first time, and Divisidero, both have great late moves.  I'm not covering and may regret it, Sadler's Joy from the 9 spot.

In Race 11, The G1 Belmont Stakes, The Turk looks at Tapwrit and can't help but think, why not? He came late in the Kentucky Derby, Late in the Blue Grass, Late in Tampa Bay Derby and SF Davis.  He'll have a long straight and targets to aim for.  Pletcher's Graded Stakes over past year down to 17%.  Looking at Lee and Irish War Cry are obvious choices but not very wiseguy of me.  Solid is still solid, don't buy into that feeling you have have to be wiseguy-ish.  This is the sort of race where there are a lot of similar runners so don't be shocked by the winner, no matter what the price.

So what to do?  Have fun with it.  Find some value on the toteboard with what I suggested here or with your own handicapping.  I'm not sure what I'll do:  I may try to single one of these races  and cover a few more Belmont Stakes runners.  I'll pay a few exactas working off my base handicap and the toteboard, not getting sentimental about the names or the human connections but thinking of value propositions only.  I'd rather gamble $20 with a 10% chance of winning >$100 then gamble $36 with a 45% chance of winning $50.  The numbers may be skewed but you get the idea.

Turk out!