The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now beginning our twelfth year. I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing us the opportunity to opine on what we love, turf racing.
My readers and friends and family know that I have been sour on horse racing most of this year. I needed a break. The bad press, the self inflicted screw ups, the small fields and my perceived lack of general interest from the race tracks and the people that horde over this sport for the average fan had left me questioning my life's choices. I'd love to tell you I'm over that, but I'm not. Watching Santa Anita, and most of California racing, flounder in their own missteps still leaves me jaded. The one thing I do love in this sport is turf racing and I've never soured on the horses. I have a real soft sport for the cagey turf runners in their late careers that can still find that late turn of foot that makes you need to remember them, to account for their pace and positioning. Similar to my Catholic Church which has been screwed up royally by the actions of flawed humans, so has horse racing, but the one thing humans can't screw up for me is the horses themselves and the hard knocking honest efforts. Let's get after this!
The Tourist Mile; 31 August 2019; Firm KD. Next Shares/1, First Premio/9, Real Story/14
Secretariat G1; 10 August 2019; Firm 1 Mile; AP. Van Beethoven/2 and Valid Point/4
Arlington Million G1; 10 August 2019; 1 1/4 Mile Firm; AP. Bandua/3
Del Mar Mile G2; 18 August 2019; Firm Bowies Hero/5
Vanderbilt Stakes G1; 27 July 2019; 6f Fast Dirt; SAR Diamond OOps/7
Oettingen-Renned G2; 1 September 2019; Good Turf 1 Mile; Baden Germany. Vintager(GB)
Prix du Moulin de Longchamp G1; 8 Sept. 2019; 1 Mile Good/Soft; Robin of Navan (FR)/10
Bernard Baruch Handicap G2; 2 Spet 2019; 1 1/16 Mile Soft. SAR. March to the Arch/11
I never BS my readers: I don't have a strong opinion on this race. That doesn't mean much because my handicaps are built with the best information my eyes see and the data that is available, but from a betting perspective, because it's so close, I didn't have strong convictions on the pace and how the race might unfold. I've won some big strikes when I felt worse about a race and I have lost races I felt invincible about. Welcome to the most humbling game in town!
All that said, I liked Bandura coming in off the Arlington Million show. The four year old son of The Factor, has deceptive Timeform figs and is very tactical. The data doesn't support me too much here but I like what I see and I like the last two efforts.
Valid Point is a three year old undefeated Scat Daddy trained by Chad Brown. His future over a route of grass is bright but is his present good enough to take on seasoned older horses? A grade 1 winner, The Secretariat field wasn't spectacular. Class alone has me high on him as each start goes by.
I'm not going to analyze too much deeper that this next group as I'll only be looking at exactas and I'll be playing this group in with the top two. Bowies Hero ships in from California. He's a solid mile horse, 8 of 14 in the money with 6 wins. Van Beethoven is a Canadian bred Scat Daddy 3 YO also, winless in 6 starts in 2019, winless in 4 tries at the distance. Last three race running lines before Secretariat: "...1f out w/o threatening, no threat, never a threat...". That's a problem. I liked his Secretariat effort and I think he's improving for Trainer Aidan O'Brien. Admission Office is just an honest Trainer Brian Lynch special. Cutting back a 1/16 from a solid Grade 2 Wise Dan. Of the foreign invaders I like Vintager (GB) but others will argue Suedois (Fr). Vintager is first time lasix and comes in off two wins. Trainer Appleby does well first time in North America, 60% off small sample size.
I'll be keeping my risk small and my fun high. Enjoy friends. Exactas only for me. 3/4 OVER 3/4 and X, Y, Z. X, Y and Z will be from my B's and C++'s and I'll be looking at value on the tote more than anything else on the past performances.
Friends, thank you for reading and welcome to this handicap written for the Thorofan Handicapping Corner. The Thorofan is an organization of racing fans who cater to the racing fans. It's run by some great folks and is spreading every year. If you are like me and crave a bit of horse talk on a regular basis, then you will find all the social interaction you need here.
The handsome man and equine is none other than J. Elliot Burch and the 1959 Horse of the Year, Sword Dancer. Burch, a Hall of Fame Trainer, just recently died in 2011 but he belongs a part of every Saratoga summer, as his charges won many a race just off of Union Avenue. Burch is a four time winner of the Travers Stakes, a feat alone that reserves reverent remembrance. I personally remember Sword Dancer as a two time Woodward Stakes winner, a Travers winner, a Belmont winner, and Sire of Damascus, winner of so many races except the Kentucky Derby, conditioned by yet another Hall of Fame trainer, Frank Whitely Jr.
The Turk likes turf racing. The pace scenario is typically understandable on the races between 1 3/16 and 1 1/2 miles: stay close, keep a clear lane, run like hell at the end. You'll get your occasional maverick who wants to charge out to a 20 length lead and wire the field, but most of these races run the same way. My keys have always been to identify class, late turn of foot and who's done it before.
Races as investments are risk/reward: You put your investment capital on the line and you expect a return. I'll save diatribes about take out for others as I accept take out as a market condition that I just have to factor in. One thing I like about Turf Races of this kind usually is the field size, as anytime you lump 10-14 horses together there will be prices to be found, even on the cream of the crop.
I think there is a clear dividing line with this field of 13, as my initial count has five possible victors and I expanded my exotic pool to eight. I like to start by watching some video of the last race or two from some of the key contenders.
6 July 2013; Monmouth: 1 3/8 Miles Firm Turf; Grade 1 United Nations. Big Blue Kitten, Teaks North
13 July Belmont Park; 1 3/8 Miles Turf Good- Grade 1 Man O' War; Twilight Eclipse, Al Khali, Optimizer, Exclusive Strike, Boisterous
I like Boisterous and Big Blue Kitten at the top of thechart and if forced to single I'd take Boisterous but that's pretty light chalk.
Boisterous is 15 of 21 in the money on Turf and 9 of his last 11 in the money. No wins in only one try at this distance and one win on Saratoga grass. This 6 YO Distorted Humor son, Trained by McGaughey and ridden by John Velazquez rattled off :46 2/5ths on the grass here on August 5th. Maybe likes softer grass and is carrying 123 pounds, so thoughts to consider.
Big Blue Kitten is coupled with the veteran gelding Stormy Lord. Winner of last two firm turf runs, the Grade 1 United Nations and a $100,000 OC at Churchill Downs two days before the Kentucky Derby. The 5 YO is 15 of 16 lifetime in the money, 13 of 14 in the money on turf, a winner at Saratoga, but new to this distance. Trainer Chad Brown is winning 29% of turf starts and 31% of routes and he's 33% off the break.
Optimizer, owned by Calumet Farms and trained by Wayne Lukas is a 4 YO English Channel son with 27 career starts already, 15 on turf, and 10 of 15 in the money with 5 wins over grass. He doesn't win much but he'll be competitive. I'll be looking at him for Place and Show in the Trifecta.
Twilight Eclipse still has something to prove. While I can't embed because Gulfstream aren't as blogger friendly as they could be, check out the Pan American at 1 1/2 miles from earlier this year. I'm not sure he beat much except maybe Newsdad and Teaks North, but he looked good doing it with a perfect rail trip. Castellano, the pilot that day, is up again. Seems to be improving for Tom Albertrani.
Teaks North is a hard knocking horse I've always appreciated. If I'm trying to keep the investment lower though I drop him out of the Trifecta, but I do it at my own peril. Capable of Show or Last.
Exclusive Strike is a 6 YO Smart Strike gelding, perhaps singularly the turf horse I've lost the most betting his offspring but I don't hold it against him! It's class warfare with him, great in OC 16K affairs, not so much in this company.
Nutello: Your guess is as good as mine. A Kentucky born Lemon Drop Kid son from Nutcase returns from France without much success in graded stakes action but 5 wins in 13 starts. No idea.
Al Khali, London Lane (Colonial Turf Cup 2013 Winner) and Tannery (Ire) are mild threats for Show and little separates them from Teaks North, Exclusive Strike or Nutello.
Judging from my numerous betting options I really don't know what I'm doing, but I'm writing this on Friday and I have time to check the Turf Conditions and Scratches and Changes. The last part of my decision making process is always an honesty moment with myself: Do I want to bet this? I'm a horse tracker investor, so I'm not opposed to it, but what is my likely chance of success? My ROI on American 12 panel racing is not very good and in fact a money loser over the past four seasons, albeit with only a sample size of about 25 races. Ultimately it will come down to the tote board and if Boisterous and Big Blue Kitten can stay closer to 3 or 4 to one each. I will keep working my options until I get my two dollar investment between 30-50 dollars.
Good stuff friends, as always, have fun and don't bet what you need to live. If you have a problem, get some help, there is plenty out there.
More importantly, I've never asked the readers of The Turk for anything, and I'm not asking anyone to do something now, but if you could consider the fundraising request below I would deeply and humbly appreciate it. The people involved with this young colt, Timothy James, are all very good and decent folks who need help paying for emergency colic surgery. Animal people understand this. From Facebook today
"....Timothy James (the colt) had to have emergency colic surgery last night & needs financial support along with the many prayers. He is named after our Son who sadly died 9/26/2011. His owner, Maria Borell & Timmy are now "family" to us & we want to help ease their great financial burden. Our Facebook Friends/Family all know what this special colt means to the Reynolds' Family. What an amazing memorial tribute this would be to our Tim "Tiznow"! Thank you in advance, from the bottom of our hearts, for any support you that you are able to send!!"
Well, everybody who has ever taken a tough test knows you reach a point and you have to put your pencil down and stop. I think we are just about at that point with one of the hardest handicapping challenges of the year, the Kentucky Derby. I'd like to start off by thanking the good folks at The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity to provide my handicapping analysis and selections for such a prestigious race; I'm humbled and appreciative.
"Keep shakin' the Magic 8 Ball and it might say Black Onyx"
We have been following this collection of runners since late last summer and now we are down to the final twenty.
I like to start every handicap by identifying what conditions the race track is going to be in. Before race time you will want to check the track surface. This sort of information is easily found at the track websites, usually listed in the racing or horseman's section, and typically under track maintenance or track conditions.
Next, I like to check the weather. It's important to know if it will be raining the day before or the day of, and for how long before the post time. Any time you can limit the number of variables in handicapping you can improve your ability to pick winners, and quite frankly mud and slop is a variable that can't be ignored. It appears that weather will not be ignored this weekend, with 80% chance of rain Saturday, and 60% from 1 PM on. I'm going to assume the track is sealed and I'll factor my thinking about the mud into my analysis.
This year, horses had to earn their way into the starting gate by earning points in races designated by Churchill Downs. I think the system was successful in its first incarnation: It gave fan's races every week of special significance, it downplayed graded stakes earnings in sprint and turf races, and it forced trainers to get their charges some action, especially the winners of the big stakes races from late last year. I took a look back today to look at which races seemed key and which races were non factors. I thought I'd be able to better glean what horses faced the most competition. I've crossed out the horses who aren't running in the Kentucky Derby. The races in red have no Derby starters as the point earners. The horses in blue are running.
I'm not sure what the take away from that exercise was; if forced to articulate I'd say it shows that most of these horses avoid each other and the notion that each prep race is some WWF steel cage match isn't the case. I personally ignore everything before the Futurity at Hollywood in mid December. I look for guts and willingness to win primarily.
So what are we going to do with this? Typically I start with my base handicap and from that my choice of wager is settled on. With major races, I like to bet the Super High Five. It's a tough bet, it can get expensive, and the odds aren't that good. Boxing 5 horses costs $240 but you might as well give your money away, you aren't likely picking 5 out of 20 like that. Boxing 6 horses costs $1,440 for a $2 bet. Get the idea? Crazy bet. We'll get to that.
I like to wager the Super High Five and get style points too: as low an investment as possible and still have a reasonable chance of winning. In order to do that you have to build a matrix: perhaps a single winner, a few horses for place and show and a bunch of choices for fourth and fifth. I've hit it a few times so I know I can, but again, it's not for the faint of heart and when you bet you must be prepared to lose. I think I'll build the base handicap and then develop some betting options to choose from.
My base handicap is nothing more than a reording of the field into probable order of finish. It's my morning line without assigning odds. I'm a layer handicapper: I assign horses within layers and I typically don't get too emotional if a horse wins or not as long as I had him in the right layer of Win-Place-Show-Exotic and Toss. That's the trick I'm trying to employ here, slotting the horses within the matrix and seeing if the stars align.
With 20 horses you have to make tough choices. I tossed Mine the Bird. It was the sensible thing to do, but there were some very good, very shrewd, and better handicappers than I, that didn't. This group of toss horses is where misery will be born for me. One of them won't get the memo and will stumble in under a blanket finish for 5th and I'll die in that instance. If I'm going to toss them in the discard pile I'm going to look at them a bit closer first.
Black Onyx/1: first dirt will be the Derby. Work was just OK. Won grade 3 Spiral Stakes. Beat NX1 winner and Derby entrant Giant Finish by 2 1/2 lengths. Also Eligible Fear the Kitten was Also Ran here.
Golden Soul/4: Maiden Winner, one win in five starts, no dirt, non-descript work. Watch end of Louisiana Derby if you need something to hang your hat on.
Mylute/6: I said we have to make hard choices. The combination of Napravnik and Trainer Amoss win at 33% clip together. Place in the Louisiana Derby. N1X winner.
Giant Finish/7: Winner of only NY State Restricted races, and performed badly in the mud in one of them.
Lines of Battle/11: I respect War Front and I respect first time Lasix, but hard decisions are hard decisions.
Falling Sky/13: Dropped like a stone in Arkansas Derby. Nice bullet work :59 3/5ths at 5f on April 7 and 26th, no fluke. Grade 3 Sam F. Davis winner. He's a gutty horse who will be part of pace but I am going to bet he drops out of top five by finish line.
Frac Daddy/18: Maiden winner, never fired in Florida Derby, came up, albeit slow, for Place in Arkansas Derby. Third race after an early season injury reboot, I suspect he will run solidly, but hopefully 6th.
Vyjack/20: Third in Grade 1 Wood, exited with an infection. Works have been slow. Grade 3 Gotham Winner. Grade 2 Jerome winner. He could get into Top 5 but again, broken record, tough choices must be made.
So, We have tossed 8 of 20 horses: 1,4,6,7,11,13,18 and 20
So what do we have left?
Oxbow/2: Gary Stevens up for Trainer Lukas. It gives me the chills to see a Calumet Farms runner but its not the same without devil's red and blue silks. Gutsy runner with a tough trip in Arkansas Derby.
Revolutionary/3: Calvin up on a closer, how unique. Hard close at Louisiana Derby and Grade3 Withers. Castellano picks Normandy Invasion mount.
Normandy Invasion/5: Fox Hill Farms, with so many good fillies, brings in Tapit's son, trained by Chad Brown. A closer, just not sure if he's a winner, seems to like to rush to the front. Should be OK in slop. Distance should be OK despite Tomlinson of 228. Let's look at close in Grade 2 Remsen and his loss to Overanalyze. Very game!
Goldencents/8: 3 wins in 5 dirt starts. Distance a real issue. I think very highly of Kevin Krigger and his swagger and Doug O'Neill and his swagger, team swagger. A rare three digit Beyer for this slow group in Santa Anita Derby. Don't buy into the trash talking that he didn't beat anyone. He's run far past his class.
Overanalyze/9: 4 wins on dirt, 99 Beyer in Remsen. Weak Gotham effort before winning Arkansas Derby. Sharp :47 flat 4f bullet 4/27.
Palace Malice/10: On a short list of horses that could rip my heart out; Nice close on stalk trip in Blue Grass Stakes. Sharp form but didn't have enough in the tank three weeks ago, gets blinkers on for this.
Itsmyluckyday/12: Outfinished in Florida Derby on a very sensible pace. Son of Lawyer Ron will always be asked distance questions.
Verrazano/14: Winner of Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial; Undefeated, didn't race as a 2 YO but ran on January 1st so lets not get all crazy about that. Like the post especially if sloppy.
Charming Kitten/15: Only considering for 4th and 5th spots, and even then, only a minor look. A turf horse that should get a good trip for final big run at end.
Orb/16: Rosario up for Trainer McGaughey, 4 wins in a row including Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth Stakes beating the impressive Violencewho ran wicked fast fractions. Top 3.
Will Take Charge/17: Trainer Lukas shut him down and he's been training well since winning the Grade 2 Rebel.
Java's War/19: Winner of Grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes. Closes hard, expect him to take run into Super High Five from the outside.
So what do we have?
I like Overanalyze to win, with Normandy Invasion perhaps too high but in Place, and the two money horses on the board, Orb and Verrazano Show and Exotic. I've created two Super High Five $1 Bets that will cost you anywhere from $88 to $154 dollars. I don't like The $88 bet very much and I think I'll play with it a bit, perhaps singling Overanalyze and picking up another horse or two for fourth and fifth. You get the idea from the spreadsheet below. The safe thing, perhaps the smart thing, would be to flip flop Orb/Verrazano and Overalyze/Normandy Invasion. I may on one or two tickets, or I may not. All of us have to detirmine our own levels of recklessness.
I hope whatever you do you have fun and enjoy the Derby. To my friends new to horse racing, I always suggest just having fun with exacta combinations using the tote board odds: take the horse with the 2nd and 3rd highest tote board action and combine them with some of the horses in spots 6-10.
Don't forget the Oaks-Derby Double bet, perhaps my favorite and the subject of tomorrow's Turk posting.
Thank you friends, and Thank you Thorofan. Turk Out!
With this weekend's Stake Races, the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes, we will have come to the end of the prime point gathering races. The standings are below as well as a race by race look at the action. Over the next three weeks the Turk is going to go back over the last several prep races, complete video analysis, and we'll watch the workout tabs very closely. The Turk was humbled and honored to be given the Kentucky Derby to handicap for the Handicapper's Corner at The Thorofan, and I tell you right now we have two key targets, The Oaks-Derby Double and the Super High Five. Two bets, two handicaps, a centerpiece day in my handicapping year and I love the challenge.
In case you missed it, I posted all of the Championship Series race videos and it can be found here.
Have fun handicapping friends. Keeneland, it must be spring! Turk Out!
Hello friends and welcome to the Thorofan Handicapper's Corner, a feature brought to you by the fine folks behind The Thorofan, an organization dedicated to horse racing fans and the racing experience. This is a big weekend of racing and the Thorofan has you covered with Paul Mazur handicapping The Beverly D at Arlington Park and the Sword Dancer and Alabama at Saratoga are being covered respectively by Laurie Ross and The Turf Queen respectively. Good stuff indeed!
I've watched all meet at Arlington for the stars to appear and I realize two issues are at play: A lack of star power horses in general, so fewer to go around, and with the purse funding at Arlington right now, horsemen are just staying away. Surely I thought that would change for Millions Day but I'm not so sure. While as a (thoro)fan I'd rather be getting excited about a star horse, I have a choice as a gambler to either bet this race or find another mark. I'm not here to discuss the quality of the runners or to bemoan the genetics of these equine athletes: I'm here to rank the likelihood of which horses can win, place,show or hit the exotic ticket and my secondary goal is to build a bet that will regard the gamble of my money. When I look at this field I see parity and uncertainty, and those are two key ingredients in big payouts. Let's get after this!
The weather looks like it will be good for Friday and Saturday. The Arlington turf course is world class and I consider it the best turf course in America. The Arlington website will provide you in depth information on the condition of the course and we'll assume the turf will be good to firm but not rock like. The track condition is updated around 12:30 ET over the weekends.
Eleven horses are entered with the 11 post horse Vertiformer cross entered in Saturday's Race 7, the $400,000 St. Leger. I'll assume he's going here for now but I think he's better suited at the shorter distance.
The Turk typically handicaps a race and then builds a bet based on the handicap. The concept that I developed for myself is to build a "base handicap" which is a predictive order of finish regardless of odds. I do this with as little "bias" as possible. I do not look at morning line odds nor do I read handicaps of the race before I build my base handicap. With the base handicap written I can spend the 20 odd minutes or so before a race goes to the starting gate and study the tote board odds looking for value within the base handicap. That strategy works well for me but I often overlook a key early step; After my first read of the Past Performance I earmark what sort of bet may be possible with the race. I've been a handicapper for a long time so this step doesn't take me long. With one quick glance I can pretty much determine if the race has exotic potential or if I'm scratching for even an opinion on the potential winners. Races like the Million or the Breeders' Cup Turf races attract foreign invaders which add a degree of difficulty with making the field apples and apples for comparison purposes. My first read of the Millions' Past Performances is murky; 3 first time lasix runners, 10 previous wins at AP, 19 wins at 10 panels, 3 millionaires, a bunch of sub 110 Racing Post Ratings, and in my mind two potential winners, Boisterous and Treasure Beach (GB). What I also took away from my review is the parity: I'm tossing out from the Top Four only two runners to begin with, Cherokee Lord and Vertiformer. I have given many of the field a B grade which slots them anywhere from Place to 4th. Ugh, The Ol' Turk has his work cut out for him but there are is nothing but potential with this race (The potential to look smart and win money and the potential to look like an fool-As a handicapper, especially one willing to give his selections this far in advance of the race, you have to have thick skin.)
After my full review I increased my toss list to four horses, adding Willcox Inn (3 of 4 at AP) and Crackerjack King (not the Sausage King in Chicago but he is a big deal in Italia). When I think about all the ways I can look dumb in public, none come to mind better than a toss horse winning a race i handicap. It happens, move on.
Adian O'Brien's Treasure Beach is the 4 YO son of Galileo has a win at Arlington but has not fared so well after returning two more times to North America. To me he represents the best of the invaders, a well traveled campaigner making his third effort since 14 July.
Boisterous is just an honest 5 YO son of Distorted Humor. He'll run his race and it will either be good enough or not. I like the switch to Lezcano and I think he's clearly in the win mix here.
I'm going to build several Exacta's based on my base handicap tied to these two potential winners.
A $2 Exacta (which I won't bet but just to give you some idea of the bet magnitude) of the #2 and #6 Boxed Over #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6 and #8) is a $24 bet. There is a combination in there that makes sense at $24 but do yourself a favor, bet no more than a few selections and hope for the best.
Have fun with this friends; This is still a premiere race, even in a year where the premiere talent may not attended.
The Turk would like to thank the fine folks at The Thorfan and the Handicappers Corner for the privilege of throwing darts against the wall, errr, handicapping this weekend's Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park.
The Turk loves the handicap division because the richness of information over several seasons that unfolds on the past performances stirs the mathematical intrigue in me. Horse racing for me is a two for one value; I get jazzed by the handicapping and the gambling, especially when I win, but I'm also able to put aside the money side of things and just be a super fan. Like everyone, I dream of the next Triple Crown winner, and I honor the eleven previous winners, but it's the older runners on the dirt and the turf that really do it for me. Last year was a bit lean on returning heroes and it's time that the cupboard gets restocked with superstars older than 3 years old.
There are some great minds on this internet-thingy handicapping: The Handicappers Corner, The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers are great places to go and bounce your own thoughts off of people who are right pretty often. I believe strongly in building handicaps without outside influence, so I really hope you have already built your handicap and you are just using this to gage your own thinking.
I was musing the other night that my own racing year mirrors the handicapping division: I shutdown after the Clark Handicap, I go to the farm (OK Chipolte's and the corner bar) and just chill until early January, I show back up in Florida and start running again, getting my stride up before taking another break in May, only to pick it up around Saratoga/Haskell time and making the strong run back to the Breeders' Cup. Turk buddy, what the heck are you talking about? I'm sayin' that I'm rusty in the handicapping and I've been resting my red pen since the Clark, just like some of these runners have been resting since that same race. If I graphed my ROI, which I do, I'm at my absolute best at the end of the season when the horses are a pretty known quantity and my handicapped skill is at its proverbial "3rd race after a layoff" best. I ain't there yet but let's take a swing at this race anyway.
Gulfstream Park Race 10: The Donn Handicap
One problem with being an internet hack handicapper is exposing your thoughts before you have enough information. Without blogging I'd have my base handicap for the Donn done on Friday night but my bet strategy would be formed once the track conditions and scratches and changes firmed up. I also like to stare at the tote board for as long as possible to make sure my superfecta investment makes sense. Perhaps the worst feeling I know is "investing" $50 to make $30. The weather at Gulfstream this weekend looks like it has the possibility to continue to be inclement, and I've built my base handicap with a slant towards slop.
So where am I coming from? Flat Out has four progressively decreasing Beyer races in a row. He looked like a horse that needed a break after the Clark Handicap, but many Breeders' Cup combatants put in dull efforts in thier first races back. Trainer Dickey got a turf effort in for God only knows what reason except possibly to increase sire value, or he just couldn't find a better spot in the conditions book. I dunno, seems like an Allowance race over dirt and 1 1/16 would have been better but the point is he got work in and this is his second effort off a 45-180 day layoff. Surely Turk that's a winning angle? 0% for Dickey but only his 5th try. Jock Solis is just a 6% winner at Gulfstream. On the positive side, I liked his slop effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and he is a bit sharper race wise than some of his cohorts, at some point I have to believe he reverses course and returns to form. This weekend would be a good time!
Dick Dutrow, not my favorite trainer but a solid horseman nonetheless, brings in Trickmeister, 5 wins in 5 starts lifetime at age 5 after beating up on shoulda, coulda, woulda types like Our Dark Knight. Ramon Dominguez and Trainer Dutrow combine for 32% wins and the son of Proud Citizen has been sharpening up over the Gulfstream Park track since New Years Eve. I want to be careful he's not too high on the toteboard but I will cover him in all four spots in my Superfecta.
The presumptive bettor's chalk will be Shackleford. I love the horse but there are red flags; winless since The Preakness, before that an N1X. A loser to Coil at the Haskell by a neck and trounced at the Travers, a loser to Wilburn at the Indiana Derby, only to choke to Caleb's Posse in the Dirt Mile. I am tickled pink to see him back and excited for Dale Romans and his barn, but I am concerned. He's a tepid B for me, Top Four on expectations and class.
Ruler on Ice, the Belmont winning gelded four year old son of Roman Ruler, is back for popular trainer, Kelley Breen who places Rosie Napravnik up. Also resting since The Clark, some very impressive bullets at 4 and 5 furlongs and a very solid resume on slop may make me reconsider and move him further up the handicap.
Soaring Empire and Redeemed will round out my top six Superfecta candidates. Soaring Empire is more of a one turn specialist and he enters off a disappointing 6th in the Hal's Hope after winning in 2011. I like the 5 YO an awful lot and I am very interested in seeing how he goes over the slop. He does own the best Tomlinson (453) over the muck. Redeemed is Dick Dutrow's other runner who is taking a jump up in class but is worth a look. The one that could make me look stooooopid is Hymn Book, but then again, a son of Arch, ridden by Johnny V for Shug McGaughey is just screaming to not be ignored. You can't cover everyone and you'll go broke tryin; build your handicap and bets with an eye towards the bottom line.
I'm going to assemble a Superfecta that approximates my base handicap. If I don't like what I see on the tote board or if more than just Al Khali scratches (I'm going to guess he does)I may retrench to a Trifecta just to keep my action reasonable and in line with where I feel my handicappers touch is right now, which is, well, "1st effort off a 60-180 day layoff".
Also, sorry for the gratuitous $6,000 dollar pile of winnings on my desk. I'm stroking my bad motherf**ker handicapper mojo back up, just like a trainer takes a horse out for a nice blow before a big race. It's my "It's Britney, Bitch" moment.
Great talking to you friends. Enjoy the races, Turk Out!
The Turk and the Little Turk are back in 2012 and we are proud to lead off the Handicappers Corner this year for the good people of The Thorofan.
The Turk loves the handicap division. It's pretty simple really too, I love numbers. I see elegance and beauty when I study a Past Performance. To people who know me the best, and who allow me to bore them the most, they know that I went years working a night shift where I handicapped whole cards, never once watching the physical race, just working the red gel pen only to repeat the process night in and out. It was my crossword puzzle, my Sudoku. It was the Internet that brought me back to racing after a lull in my interest, the Internet and horse racing on satellite television. This time of year, the older horses are either on the farm or they are just coming back to training and quality of the fields can be a bit so-so. This Grade 2 San Pasqual might not pass for an OC $40K N1X at another time in the year, but here we have it. I led off by saying I loved the handicap division because I like to deal with long racing histories and lots of running lines, but this group caught my eye in a bad way: 135 career starts, 4 fast dirt wins. Can you say ugh!
I do love Past Performances but I also love Race Charts. I have all eight days races in the current meet at Santa Anita printed and I'm starting my review of them this weekend. I'll break down the winning post positions, the basic race forms and pacing, and how the tote board rankings compared to the final outcome. I'm not so much interested in races like the San Pasqual as I am about gleaning knowledge about how the races might unfold in February and March and April, and I keep my own statistic. I prefer to gather my own stats because when you just look at the numbers you can sometimes miss the economy of word descriptions of how the race unfolded and the "story behind the story". It's too early to really hang too much on what I'm seeing but chalks are winning 38% of the time in my early review of the first six days of racing. I'm not interested in chalk today, let's see if we can beat em'.
I'll assemble a reasonably priced $1 Superfecta built around my base handicap. I'll pay attention to the tote board as well as the scratches/changes and I'll either slip back to a Trifecta or pass altogether if there is a key (non-Toss Out) scratch.
I look forward to another great year meeting like minded horse racing fans. The Thorofan's Handicappers Corner has assembled a deep and eclectic collection of writers and handicappers, the best of the best in the blogosphere, providing keen analysis and insight from now until Breeders' Cup. Don't be bashful if you are new to the game, there isn't a blogger or writer who doesn't love to meet his readers, and you are in the right place, The Thorofan is all about the racing fan community.
Happy Holidays to my friends, family and readers. The Turk enjoyed some quality downtime from the races following the Clark Handicap, which hard to believe, was a month ago. As a blogger I'm often loathe to take weeks off, but I remind myself I've never really been about traffic, ad revenue, or even good writing, so a few weeks away during the holidays is almost a public service! Seriously, I had nothing to offer over the past few weeks and I'd rather be silent than flap my gums for the sake of flapping.
Without the cycle of handicapping, blogging, betting, post race analysis (wash, sleep, repeat)I was able to go sleep early on Friday nights, push away from the computer screen on Saturday mornings, and think little of the races. This time of year, even though we haven't gotten much snow, I build a fire each Friday and Saturday night, and after Mama and Little Turk go off to bed, Kay, the family wiemaraner and I, will sit in quiet reflection and think on the events that were and the future to come. I like to believe that it's during this time that I elevate myself from drone to human.
The Turk had a good year overall and there is much to be thankful for. My family remains alive and healthy: Papa Turk's mechanical ticker is still ticking and cousin Kevin beat cancer. My nephew Danny, try as hard as he can, healed all his broken bones. My job continues to place food on my table and provide for my families needs. The job is a tough physical and mental grind, but I'm grateful for the opportunity and when it ends one day I'll be able to say I gave it my all. Little Turk became a black belt in his martial art, Bushido Kai. He worked all off season with a private coach and brought his soccer game to a new level as well. Little Turk is a good student, with grades in the low 90's, but more importantly, his report cards are filled with top marks for discipline and conduct and he's becoming a thoughtful young man. Unbeknownst to me, he wrote a paper in school recently about what he wished he could give for Christmas, and he wished he could bring Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds back to life for his family. Speaking of Tiznow, his death in late September might have been the low point of the year. The young man had so much passion for our sport, his death has left a void in many peoples lives, especially his family and young daughter. Lost as well this past year was Rachel Beard, DVM, a passionate horse racing fan and veterinarian. I hope both Tim and Rachel find peace on the other side.
I was blessed again this year to be able to collaborate with some of the best writers on the Internet(and traditional media) covering horse racing: Steve from Wireplayers.com invited my to join his merry group to vote on Derby Contenders for the second year in a row. It's a raucous group effort that I thoroughly enjoy and speaking of collaborations, I've contributed to some group "Top Five" efforts at Hello Race Fans! and I'm always honored at the opportunity to share my thoughts when they kindly ask. The Thorofan allowed me to handicap for The Handicapper's Corner. The Thorofan is an organization of people united together to give racing fans a voice and an opportunity to come together socially. Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers and the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance are two groups that I proudly write for, and I have been grateful as well to have my postings available at Raceday 360 Wire.
The subtitle of this blog is "Horses, Handicapping and Hi jinks". I cover the handicapping pretty well along with the horses, but this ol' cigar chomping handicapper may bore you with what he considers hi jinks at this point in his life. In 2011 I was lucky enough to attend races at Santa Anita and Del Mar, as well as witness morning work at both tracks. I visited Turf Paradise, Belmont, Arlington, Aqueduct and Churchill Downs, as well as a brief, few race Saratoga visit. The highlight of the year was the Breeders' Cup with the Turk Clan and our dear friends from North of the border.
I'm going to be playing Santa Anita and Gulfstream primarily over the next several months. I had negative ROI through April the past three years in a row which doesn't surprise me: I don't pay attention to two year olds and the Derby prep races chew me up. I am positive ROI during that same time period with older horses and turf racing. A quick review showed I had spotty results at Aqueduct, Tampa Downs, LA Downs and a few other tracks I don't play often. That makes sense as well and I'll spend the first few weeks of the new year handicapping but keeping my bet exposure reasonable or non existent. I do my best work when I get a feel for how the track plays and with horses on their second efforts of a meet. I'm going to be a patient bettor but an active handicapper and post race analyst, which is my real love anyways (not that I have a problem with large stacks of money).
I'll be back before tomorrow with opening day at Santa Anita. Life is good friends, enjoy it, we are only here for a short while. I'd like to end with a final thanks to all the kind words of support my horse racing friends provided while my loving dog Kay went through a serious health scare. I didn't think she'd still be with me this time last week, and while not out of the woods, there is daylight again.
"Go Big or Go Home" It's a fairly macho statement, spoken by Type A personalities just to let you know their outlook on life. The Turk's feeling macho: Let's swing for the fences with a statement bet, the kind of bet you hit and you brag about for life. Anything that carries lifetime bragging rights should be sufficiently difficult and I present to you the challenge before us, the Super Hi Five: The top five finishers selected in order.
I tried to find the etymology of this statement, go big or go home, and Google keeps pointing me to a petite female named Eliza. Go figure, but I digress and for now imagine a bald, handsome, cigar smoking handicapper, nattily dressed with a Korean kid in tow standing at the betting window smiling at the the glazed over teller and leading with "Go Big Or Go Home", which to him she replies "read the sign: track, race, and bet". Respect.
It doesn't get much bigger than the Breeders' Cup Classic or the Super Hi Five Bet. Before I go to far I'd like to thank the Thorofan for inviting me to handicap such a prestigious race for the Handicappers Corner. I'm honored to not only be associated with a group like The Thorofan as a guest handicapper, but I put my money where my endorsements are and I'm also a dues paying member.
The Super Hi Five, Go Big or Go Home. Is it harder than a Pick Six? That's relative but I'm going to say yes. It's so random who trots home in fourth and fifth, Win Place Show for that matter, that all you can do is the layer the horses into the slots you expect them to finish within and place the bet. Boxing the top seven horses on the tote board would cost you $2,520. That's pretty pricey. I assembled a chart of the last eleven Breeders' Cup Classic races and it would strongly suggest you are wasting your money using the tote board as a gage: The chalk finished in the top five 8 of the 11 years, the bettor's second choice only 4 times. Ugh, you get the idea.
I'll go off on a tangent one more time and suggest that this sort of gamble is extremely high risk, but the payoff reward can be significant. Don't bet the milk money or the mortgage money and stop reading now if you aren't interested in such an unlikely proposition (The Turk isn't that macho really. I won't tell on you if you place show bets, honest, I'd still love to hang with you in the paddock). From my base handicap you can easily assemble Win-Place-Show- Trifectas and what seems like a conservative bet after talking about the Super Hi Five, the Superfecta. Whatever you do, do your own handicapping, only bet what you are comfortable losing and study after the race what you got right and what you got wrong, its the best way to get better at this.
If you've never been to the Breeders' Cup I hope you can find the opportunity in the future to attend. It's two days of total immersion within our sport. Everywhere you look is regal purple and splendor.
Let's get after this before I get all misty eyed.
The Breeders' Cup Classic; 1 1/4 Miles on Dirt
Over the last week I've assembled quite a bit of readily available video on the Classic runners. Video is an important tool to the Turk. I have no special insights into the way the animal physically appears and you won't find me rambling here about switching leads, no for me the video is strictly about the trip. When I look at the past performance I get a pretty good idea of what happened but its like a black and white TV for anyone old enough to remember how lame that was, but taking the PP's and watching the video is like unlocking the HDTV settings on your phat plasma; you get a real indication of the "extenuating circumstances" as I like to call them.
Another notion you must learn to control if you are going to be a good bettor is the concept of "feeling good about the bet". You may be confident in your abilities, and by all means you should be if you are even trying this, but you never really know how things are going to turn out. When I analyzed my own betting years ago I often found myself getting very conservative on the exotics, clinging to the tote board ranking like a life preserver. When you handicap publicly like I do, its easy to be embarrassed. The average punter who loses at the windows doesn't write 10,000 words about who is going to win only to see that horse come in last, but that happens at the Turk and the Little Turk from time to time and it will happen again. The point is you have to assemble your handicap and place your bet, and you must learn to not negotiate with yourself, against yourself. Resist the urge to add 10 of the horses to the mix. You can't cover everybody and no handicapper or bettor is always right. I urge you friends to be a brave pari mutuel commando.
A real good tool during weeks like this is the Clocker Reports. You can pay money and get some really kick ass opinions and insights or you can be like me and watch the free ones at Daily Racing Form. They are pretty hype free. Also this week, I grabbed a web address from a PR guy at Churchill Downs for the official work tab. Just play with the date in the address bar. I like the work tabs quite a bit just to get a feel for how the runners are moving leading into the weekend. Remember, its not what a horse did in May or June, it's about what they have been doing since late August and September. I love to see on the Past Performances race efforts in Grade 1 company, on dirt, at or near the distance, punctuated by solid work at 4 and 4 furlongs. That floats my boat.
It's really a flip of the coin for me but I like Harve de Grace and Flat Out to be very competitive here. I'll cover both through positions 1-3 on my versions of my bet. I guess I should say because this is going up on the Thorofan Handicappers Corner by Thursday or Friday morning, I'll be tweaking my final bet a bit right up until Saturday. If your interested, you can find it at my blog my final matrix.
Flat Out lost in the Woodward to Harve de Grace. one of the real shames of the Fall was the track conditions and the field sizes on Super Saturday at Belmont, but that wasn't Flat Out's fault and he took care of business in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Training sharply, I dislike the 0 for 2 goose egg at Churchill Downs.
Harve de Grace also followed up the Woodward with a romp on Super Saturday in the slop. She's been training over the poly but her past performances are just epic and I'm really curious what she still has in the tank at this point in the season and the distance is a question as well and she has a small Tomlinson for the distance (mild indicator) and she has a goose egg in two grade 1 tries (The Alabama and Delaware Handicap) although she was a narrowly beaten Place in both. i think its feast or famine: She either really runs well or she drops out of the top five. That's my gut and I may revisit my bet and cover her positions 1-5 or be brave and cover her 2-5.
So You Think (NZ) is a monster on paper with one glaring issue: first dirt. This is the 5 YOs sixth straight Grade 1 effort, where he is 17 of 19 lifetime in the money on turf and a staggering $7,587 million in career earnings on 12 wins. She's picking up the post race feed bill. Aidan O'Brien places the horse on lasix for the first time and adds blinkers. He has gone left handed before, something you should always note. Came up flat in the Arc de Triomphe. I'm thinking I have him too high, he's just got alot to overcome. It's the Animal Kingdom spectre that looms in the back of mine and others heads that I just don't dismiss him outright. I'll say this: Who knows how he responds to dirt in his face, especially if he rates in a stalk and faces real traffic. I don't think he can win so I doubt I cover the top spot with him. Very curious to see how he works Thursday over the surface.
My next group for betting purposes are who I see finishing anywhere from Show to Fifth: Uncle Mo, Stay Thirsty, Drosslemeyer and Game on Dude. Game on Dude is 6 of 7 in the money in 2011, has won 5 of last 13 starts for Trainer Baffert, is 7 of 9 in the money over fast dirt and has put up big speed figs at the distance. It can't be discounted and his Goodwood effort was very solid. He's my wiseguy winner, especially where I expect to find him on the toateboard.
If I'm sneaking horses up as I'm slipping down So You Think it's Uncle Mo and Game on Dude. I have Headache and To Honor and Serve on the fringes of the exotic ticket. Somebody has to be tossed or we'll be spending a fortune and Ruler on Ice, Ice Box and Rattlesnake Bridge are on my list, but any of them can finish fifth or better and fudge up the works. This is gambling after all.
I'll be in Churchill Downs with my family as well as friends. I'm going to Go Big and Most Likely Go Home as well but it's been a good year at the windows for me and I've made some pretty nice stacks of green, it's time to swing away.
My last shout out to The Thorofan is thanking them again for what they have done to help The Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds family. Tim was an incredible race fan who passed away at way too young an age, leaving behind a wife and young daughter, as well as a grieving family and friends all over the country. If you can, please read the information about Tim at the Thorofan and your donations there, with a PayPal option, are going towards the education of his young daughter.
That's Kay, the Turk Family Weimaraner, getting her Breeders' Cup handicappers homework in. We've studied some of the contenders for the Turf in our last post and today we will look at the Classic.
I'm not sure my first emotion when I look at the contenders for the Classic. Underwhelmed? Disappointed? I dunno. Sure it's exciting the idea of a filly, Harve de Grace, as a serious contender, and the idea of Uncle Mo returning to Churchill Downs where he won the Juvenile a year ago and seemingly was a Triple Crown threat that never materialized (The Timely Writer?....nice move), but the rest of the field is really lacking star power, or is it?
I've been asked to handicap this race for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner. I was honored to be chosen to handicap such a prestigious race by one of my favorite horse racing organizations so I am hopeful that I can identify someone that can come here and win as an overlay. I'm going to try and set aside the "fan" in me and take a strong look at the expected entries and see who is peaking at the right time.
Let's Get after it!
Can anyone possibly make their first dirt start and win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Can anyone make their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby and win that? Well, Animal Kingdom did just that this year. He wanted the distance and he was a superior athlete in comparison to his competition.
Oh Turk, horse racing has a long history, it can't possible happen twice in the same year at the same track? I don't know, we've seen a filly win the Belmontfor the first time since 1905, a filly win the Preaknessfor the first time since 1924, two fillies win the Woodward.
So You Think is a Coolmore runner trained by Aidan O'Brien. The High Chaparral(Ire)son (yes, two time Breeders' Cup Turf champion) seems like the sort of horse that could start on dirt for the first time and gobble up the distance.
2000 M.(~ 10 furlongs) Moresbridge Stakes
2000 M. (~10 furlongs) Prince of Wale Stakes rest in peace Rewilding
Irish Champion Stakes
15 October 2011 10f British Championship Stakes
Some nice effort in all these races for So You Think. Strange days indeed.
Tizway when healthy, is a dominant handicap division runner who should need no introduction. His trainer James Bond is confident. Interestingly, Trainer Bond thinks Flat Out is the horse to beat. We'll get to him soon.
2011 Met Mile
2011 Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs
Tizway, the son of Tiznow, will be my emotional chalk for the Classic, but it's not like he isn't talented enough to pull it off. The reports of his work at Belmont, where he shipped in to run over a faster strip of dirt, have been excellent.
Flat Out has been dazzling, with last three Beyers 107,109 and 106.
2011 Suburban H. with Flat Out in a powerful five wide move at top of stretch to win by 6 lengths.
2011 Jockey Gold Cup
2011 Woodward Stakes with Harve de Grace by a length over Flat Out
Injuries, perhaps from some tough efforts at Gulfstream early in the year, put the son of Bernardini on the shelf.
But after being brought back slowly over the Saratoga season, even tried as a sprinter, To Honor and Serve fired off a freakish effort that highlighted his talent setting a stakes record time over a fast PARX track.
9f The Pensylvania Derby
This Optional Claimer/High End Allowance race at Saratoga was a very nice effort at 9 furlongs as well.
Stay Thirsty is another son of Bernardini that I did a horrible job judging all year. I was fairly unimpressed with him as a 2 YO (a stupid, closed minded mistake that a horse player cannot make!)but let's review how things turned around for him.
8.5f The Gotham March 2011
I rationalized the Gotham off and he did little after that until the Belmont.
12f The 2011 Belmont Stakes
I rationalized this one off too; Wet track and a perfect rail trip. He did track the pace the whole way around and he made a nice run in the last 1/16th.
...but the Jim Dandy and the Travers can't be ignored (although the fields were pretty soft...rationalizing....)
9f The Jim Dandy
10f The Travers Stakes
I think you just toss the Jockey Club Gold Cup effort but that leaves the Travers as his last good race. Not many reports of sizzling works so we'll be paying attention over the next two weeks for some hype machine comments.
Game On Dude, poor animal, not exactly a regal sounding name he was, ummm, saddled with. Luckily, were professional horse players, we don't let names influence us. Never. Maybe a little.
The Turk's favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, really got a great game effort from Game On Dude over the Santa Anita dirt strip this year, a Santa Anita main track he's 3 for 3 on this year.
The 9f Goodwood Stakes
...and a bit of a shocker in the Big Cap
10f Santa Anita Handicap
Take a look at this effort of Tizway and Game on Dude.
9f The Charles Town Classic G3, April 2011
Uncle Mo has had quite a journey: I had a 12th picture frame ordered for my wall, the wall that has the 11 Triple Crown winners on it (this is my annual optimism)
2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile
..then just a questionable plan put together by Trainer Pletcher that gave him a very long break and then a return to action in a minor stakes race.
Injury/illness kept Uncle Mo on the shelf and the picture frame went back into my drawer. The son of Indian Charlie hasn't been past 8 furlongs since April, only twice in his career, and he's never been to 10f. My fellow blogger, Brock Sheridan at The Brock Talk wrote a nice piece recently about Mo's 220 yard elephant.
Here's the 1 mile Kelso. I'm just not sure how you can take the Super Saturday races and make something from them. Look at nice middle and end and he freaked out an awesome 1:33 and change mile.
Harve de Grace. The daughter of Saint Liam has had just an awesome year. She seems poised to be the chalk for the Classic, something she's deserving of based on her campaign. You wonder if she still has enough in the tank after some pretty tough efforts this year.
2011 Delaware Handicap at 10f was my favorite race of the year so far.
2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff
Another Super Saturday performance I'm not sure you can stake alot on but a win is a win.
The 9f Beldame
The distance....I just don't know, but luckily today isn't about handicapping as much as it is reviewing the body of work that creates a Breeders' Cup Classic Champion.
While the racing may not have been indicative on Super Saturday, the commentary and insights of the E Train, Ernie Munick are always spot on
I love the beauty of Keeneland. I love the ebb and flow that Keeneland provides the racing calendar; the start of spring, the end of summer, like bookends on the turf racing season. I love the beauty of the track and the details that seem to pop out when you take time to just look. I'd like to rant about the fake plastic dirt, and I won't lie, I'd rather it was dirt, but it seems to play fair and it does allow for racing and handicapping in the sometimes horrible weather that can accompany these meets, so I'm going to say I don't mind it and have come to be as accepting of it here as I am Arlington, Woodbine and PID. Now Del Mar and Hollywood, don't get me started.
When I went looking for a picture that screamed Keeneland I found a clock, a majestic Rolex clock, taken by a wonderful writer, the talented Michigan Bred Claimer, Joe Nevills, who I thank for its use.
I handicapped a sequence of races that lead to a late Pick Three that finishes with the Grade 1 Alcibiades. i really dislike two year old racing and I just can't seem to get that interested in the Grade 1 affair so out with the Pick 3 and we'll just focus on a very nice Allowance Race on Turf and a Grade 3 sprint on the plastic. Let's get it on!
Twelve horses should enter the gate in a $58,000 allowance, 1 mile on what should be firm turf. I placed Blue's Street on top, but the chalk isn't that heavy. A Grade 2 and Grade 3 winner, recently shifted by Anstu Stables to Eddie Kennelly's barn from the trainer Pletcher. A real dog last time out, Kenneally is a 24% winner with first timers and Blues Street is a talented 7 YO gelded son of Street Cry (Ire): 12 of 12 in the money at the distance, 17 of 27 in the money on Turf, 5 of last 9 in the money. Leparoux is up. I do not believe he will be the bettor's chalk, that honor most likley will go to Yankee Fourtune, so I am looking for an a good price as well.
There is lots to like about Yankee Fourtune and the only thing i don't care for is the long layoff, but McLaughlin hits 32% off this sort of extended rest. MClaughlin places Alan Garcia up, and they combine for 27% winners at KEE over past year in 11 tries. 5 wins in 6 tries on turf, gotta love the will to win, a nice contract to Bim Bam who we'll get too.
Not much separating my next layer, Moryba (Brz) and Bim Bam. Morya (Brz), trained by Bill Mott, is a fairly consistent runner cutting back in distance. 9 of 15 in the money on turf and competitive in his Grade 2 races this year.
Bim Bam has no wins in last 15 starts and zero of 9 in 2011 while getting up for Place 6 times in last 20 and 12 of last 27 Place or Show. Doesn't seem to want to win but more than capable of 4th.
I have Hollinger next but Mikoshi is better overall; Mikoshi is a 5 year old Orientate horse trained by Matz with Go Go Gomez up. Winless in two tries at KEE, 1 win in six starts at distance, but 15 of 20 in the money turf. Last time out at Woodbine he laid an egg. His post and his last effort will have to be reversed but tough spot.
Hollinger has two Show finishes in last 7 races, never won at the distance and only 1 turf win in 5 tries. Trainer Attfield is pretty sharp and would not be surprised if he scratches out of here.
Cherokee Artist has Johnny V up for Trainer Motion. I'm actually going to flip flop him and Hollinger in my base handicap. No wins in 5 tries at the distance, 1 win in 10 tries on turf, winless at KEE and 1 win in last 13.
I'll build a superfecta out of this, matrixed as I won't cover any of the exotic picks in the win spot.
In the Grade 3 Phoenix, I think Aikenite is a deserving chalk and I expect he will be the chalk at post time. 3 of 4 in the money at KEE with 2 wins. Pletcher and Johnny Velazquez win 41% of KEE starts and 29% overall in past year on a whopping 705 starts together.
Sterling Outlook has been claimed twice in past six months and last out gamely dead heated a win at 6 furlongs at Del Mar with a 101 BSF. Trainer Saddler places Gomez up and the two win 235 of the time together. 2 wins on fake dirt in 9 tries. Feast or famine I reckon.
Hamazing Destiny is very reliable and honest. Trainer Lucas is looking for a graded stakes win, with an unthinkable zero for 69 streak in the rolling year. 5 of 10 in the money at the distance.
Flashpoint is training very fast on the fake stuff, banging out :59 and change 5f workouts at KEE. First time racing on plastic so how the Pomeroy son performs, who knows. Could get bet down to the chalk and maybe the bettors are right but I'm not there yet. He's very good though so we'll cover the top spot with him. Trainer Ward very respected here at The Turk and Little Turk.
Only other horse I'm covering is a bit of value, Hoofit (Nz) . I'm not sure what to expect but he ran well at PID in September.
The Turk has never been very successful at Keeneland, especially the poly races. I'll be playing quite a few early to get a feel for it and we'll see if we can't do a bit better here.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
Horse players, in late September horse racing lost a super fan, in fact the HRN Fan of the Year, "Tiznow" Tim Reynolds. Please consider a completely tax deductible donation to help for the education fund of Tim's daughter, Lauren.
There are so many people and organizations that need our help, I know that, but if possible, please help the family of one of our own, a horse racing fan who oozed passion for this sport and who is dearly missed by his friends and family.
Yes, I'm going to talk betting menus and Breeders' Cup Classic statistics but before I go to far, today is the grand unveiling of Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers, a group that I am an invited member of. This collection of twenty bloggers, while all individual voices, isn't just a blog aggregate site. In our introductory press release, one of our six founding members, Valerie Grash defined our goal as "...to gather the best the blogosphere had to offer in regards to the coverage of horse racing...where readers can easily find select and thought provoking writing by individuals invested in sharing their love for the sport." Well said Valerie and thank you for inviting me.
My blog, The Turk and the Little Turk, has been a labor of love for three years now. If you don't know me, let me introduce myself and my blog. I am The Turk. Yes I have a name, but don't expect me to use it much here. The Turk moniker was not an uncommon nickname in handicapper circles in the sixties and seventies and I reckon every OTB and backstretch had a "Turk" and a "Greek". Not too long ago I read an obituary of a World War II veteran which he was described as a longtime horse player whose nickname was "The Turk". I feel a kinship with the older generations and I hope I carry on this man's legacy well.
I picked my nickname up in 1986 when a bunch of sailor buddies of mine got sick of hearing me talk about Turkoman, especially after Precisionist smoked him. It was a friendly taunt that I wore as a badge of honor. The Little Turk is my eleven year old son, a Korean-American with an uncanny knack for picking winners out of the horses I inaccurately toss out.
I've been in the game a long time but don't expect breaking news, trainer quotes, insider information or controversial opinions on matters I know little of: I'm a handicapper. I take a red gel pen to Daily Racing Form Past Performances and I apply my derivative techniques to construct exotic vertical and horizontal betting structures from my base handicaps. I build my handicaps in advance of the post parade with each of the horses identified by "layer"; where in the field a particular runner will finish, be it W-P-S, the Exotic 4th, or my toss outs, the Also-Ran's.
I will identify what sort of bet structure I intend to build and often, not always, I'll post the exact bet. I believe in watching the tote board and being prepared to alter your bet structure within the confines of the base handicap, albeit slightly, if opportunity presents itself. After the race I'll break down the race chart and we'll try to learn something in hindsight about why we won or lost.
I have my quirks; I don't read much in advance of the racing, preferring to only study the past performance information, race charts and YOU TUBE race videos to avoid outside bias. I also ignore morning line odds. A good example of why this can be very helpful was this past weekend at Santa Anita in the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon. Turning Top (Ire), a 5 year old that was 13 of 21 in the money on Turf, a 402 Tomlinson, 3 of 5 in the money on Santa Anita turf but a woeful one of six in the money in 2011, but all Grade 2 with one Grade 1 effort. It was her third effort off of a clearly needed break. In my mind this horse was top six in a nine horse field and she was in my superfecta mix. The bettors didn't see it that way and she was pushed down to the lowest odds on the board. When she hit the wire in fourth she provided the only value in a chalky Superfecta. Her morning line odds? 20-1. She fell to 46-1 before the race began. It's these contrarian thoughts where I find value choices. Bias can influence you in all sort of ways and you'll hear me tell you to block out the bias (including Internet hacks like me) at least until you make your selections.
The Internet is a big place; If we are going to make horse racing relevant again culturally it will be at the grass roots level. The Turk is neither a journalist nor an irreverent or irresponsible writer: I hope you come and visit my blog, share your thoughts, take something away like I have taken away from the handicappers I respect the most. There are lots of places to find interesting voices in racing , be it new media, old media, or a melting pot of both journalists and others crashing the party. The Turk is also a proud member of The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and Raceday 360 as well as a sometimes contributor to various sites such as Hello Race Fans! and the Thorofan Handicappers Corner.
Now that I rambled my gums at you...
The Breeders' Cup is a unique event in American horse racing, especially since getting the Stretch Armstrong treatment and turning into a two day festival. Churchill Downs will be packed with the true believers, horse racing fans who know their stuff. The mostly Grade I level racing will feature cards that read like the who's who of the particular division, multiple graded stakes winners and racing millionaires who suddenly find themselves overlays. I find the best way to handle the excitement of being at the track on big days like this is to be prepared; All races I intend to bet will be base handicapped and I'll have some idea of how I intend to build my bets, along with a budget that I won't exceed. It's a bit too early to start handicapping, but I will do my homework over the next week and put in the preparation for how these races have been unfolding and what sort of odds I should expect.
When I walk into Churchill Downs I'll be prepared with pre-made scratch pads to take the tote board information and layer it over my handicaps, helping me make the final decisions that will define which particular exotic option is best.
The tentative betting menu was released. There are Pick Five's with fifty-cent minimums, ten cent Superfecta's and a Pick Six that will carry over to Saturday if its not hit on Friday. There will be rolling Pick Threes, one Pick Four on Friday that ends with the Distaff or the Ladies Classic and two Pick Fours on Saturday. There is also a Distaff-Classic Double and $1 Super High Five's for both the Distaff and the Classic, with the Distaff High Five payout carrying over to the Classic which will have a mandatory payout.
That's alot to digest but digest it friends and start thinking about what your primary targets will be. I've got a soft spot for the Super High Fives.
I've spent sometime on the front end of my homework looking at some historical information.
What to glean? Only three chalks in past eleven years have won; Chalks have been in the Super High Five nine of eleven years; The bettors second favorites have only hit the board 4 times, only once as high a Show; The average winners odds: $10.12-1.
It's going to be a fun month of preparation. I hope you join me each post.
