The Nomination Is In: The Mother Goose Grade 1 at Belmont Park

Rachel's Valentina: photo credit NYRA/Susie Raisher

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing blog started in 2008 before the micro blog, the Twitter 140 character blast that made long winded air bags, errr, bloggers like me less relevant.

 I'm not a fan of the short blast; I like to ramble, I like to share race videos, race charts and past performances with my readers in an attempt to talk about handicapping in a Tom Ainsile/Brad Free style that my methods are based on.

I've studied analytics and algorithms but at the end of the day, class, conditions and pace usually dominates my selections. My readers don't read The Turk for the human angle, fascinating stories or interviews, or the latest racing news.  I cater to a degenerate crowd that would prefer I just posted by winner in the first sentence so they could read it and move on to the next blogger in an attempt to ignore the handicapping and jump right to the bet selection.  What you do with this blog is your business, I do this for the love of racing and the puzzle solving euphoria that comes from assembling winning tickets.

The Turk has really focused his handicapping this year on 4 year old's running routes on dirt.  It's my sweet spot, and quite frankly, those horses are my favorites.  I love the older horses, not yet wanted in the breeding shed, gelded, with lots of past performance to guide me and a sporting quality I really am pulled towards.  I completely ignored the Triple Crown folly this year, and only now in July do I even want to start looking at 3 YOs as I prep for Breeders' Cup weekend, my highlight weekend of racing every year.  Today's Mother Goose will give me a good feel for the serious Eastern US filly group. My quick review of the past performances is wow: A Curlin, two Bernadini's, one by Rachel Alexandra running in Stonestreet Stables silks, and just a pretty classy high end group.  The race fan in me is excited by a Rachel's Valentina, above.  I still get goosbumps thinking about Rachel when she ran by me at the 1/16th pole on the way to winning the Woodward.

One of my things is I don't really read racing news stories, especially puffy piece stuff about the horse, the connections, etc.  I don't like the bias of these articles seeping into my process.  I'm OK if I sound weird, to me these horses are fresh runners, I've never read about them, never watched them run, never bet on them.  As bizarre as it reads, my best ROI is on these sort of races.

The weather should be beautiful  at post time and I would expect the dirt to be fast.  As always, make sure you check the scratches and changes before plopping your money down at the windows.  Let's get it on!

Let's get a feel for who are the players here.

The Acorn Stakes at BEL at 1 Mile.  Off the Tracks a game place after a tough inside trip.




The Kentucky Oaks 1 1/8 Miles at CD.  Rachel's Valentina gets smoked in the stretch by Lewis Bay as well as the winner of this and the Acorn, Cathryn Sophia





Such good racing, explosive stretch drives.  My initial thoughts are:




I'm leaning towards Off the Tracks as my tepid chalk.  A game place in the Acorn after a lousy trip.  Jockey Johnny V jumps off of her and J. Ortiz is up for Trainer Pletcher.  4 of 4 in the money on fast dirt with a career high 96 Beyer, no wins at the distance or BEL.  3 weeks after Acorn she's back, I'm guessing Pletcher knows what he's doing.  We'll find out.

Lewis Bay is back since last running on Kentucky Oaks day and Trainer Brown is 28% off the layoff. 4 of 4 in the money on fast dirt with a 91 career high Beyer, cutting back a 1/16th off last few races, and 2 of 2 in the money at BEL.

Rachel's Valentina wins the sexy award but sexy doesn't win races.  I'm having a hard time getting the image of her fading badly down the stretch of the Oaks out of my mind.  If you want to see a bit more competitive fire, look at her effort in the Ashland, a bizarre finish as well.



The quality is a bit sketchy after these three.  Lightstream is on the outside for Trainer Brian Lynch, 2 of 2 on fast dirt with a race best Career best 103 Beyer and 3 of 3 lifetime.  She's stretching out from a 7F comfort zone and is a G3 winner.  She's in the deeper end of the pool today.

I'm not sure what I'm doing from a bet construction perspective.  If I bet, and I'm not sure right now, I'll guard against over covering and I'll follow my base handicap fairly closely.  I'm thinking 2-5 OVER 2-5-6-7-3 OVER 5-6-7-3.  Something along those lines but even that feels a bit too safe.  I'll think about it after looking at tote board and scratches and make a decision then.

Have fun with the racing and the handicapping.

My last note:  There is a wonderful effort underway to bring help to 43 horses found to have been abandoned by their owner in Kentucky.  Just an amazing effort and if you are interested in helping, please follow this link
 

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Oaks-Kentucky Derby Double

Close Hatches Winning the G2 Gazelle 4/6/13

I don't know what it is about the Oaks-Derby double that I enjoy so much? I think its the feeling of being alive after day one and having that little extra to look forward to the next day.

I love the fillies, but I pay no attention to Juvenile fillies and almost no attention to the 3 YOs until the Kentucky Oaks every year. It adds excitement for me to see for the first time these wonderful race horses, like a big wrapped box on Christmas morning. The fillies, quite frankly,  have been more engaging to me over the past several years than the colts, and today is the first time I've really spent anytime looking at the past performances of Dreaming of Julia or Unlimited Budget, Midnight Lucky, Beholder or my pick, Closing Hatches, and I like what I see.

I bored my readers (blowhard bald guy pontificating again) about my layer handicapper method in my extensive Kentucky Derby blog post yesterday. I won't bore you again. I have three horses that I think can win and I won't get hung up on who actually wins, but clearly I'd prefer the longer odds on the board which should be Mott's Gazelle Winner, Closing Hatches.

Let's get after it!



The track is currently listed as FAST. I think we'll get lucky and it will stay fast before the rains come. That's what I'm handicapping.

I like the progressive improvement of Close Hatches and the work she's done over the Churchill surface, and Rosario is smoking hot right now, 48% winner at CD and 25% winner overall.  Wow!

I'm going to Play 11-4-8 with a bunch of horses from the Derby, and hopefully Close Hatches brings value on the front end of the bet, or someone like Overanalyze or Revolutionary brings value on the backend.

Either way, fun times, good stuff.  The Turk is headed to the Black Eyed Susan and the Preakness in two weeks and he is VERY excited.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Days April 30 and May 1: The Kentucky Oaks - Turf Classic- Kentucky Derby Pick Three

Readers of the Turk have heard me prattle on before about base handicaps and bet constructions, and it's weekends like this one that continuously reaffirm to me the basic principles of handicapping are alive and well and relatively unchanged since I first read Tom Ainslie during one long trip at sea in the mid 1980's. Any multibet race starts with the first leg: Nothing is more of a downer then losing the opening race of the centerpiece of a many hour handicap, so with that in mind, I thank that lovely lady Blind Luck , pictured, for rescuing my winning Kentucky Oaks - Turf Classic - Kentucky Derby Pick Three bet from ruination. Thanks as well to The Saturday Post, also a member of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, for the best picture I found of this special filly. Let's get after it!

CD Race 11 April 30, 2010: The Kentucky Oaks Grade I- CD Race 10 1 May, 2010: The Turf Classic Grade I - CD Race 11 1 May 2010: The Kentucky Derby Grade I.



As far as the Pick Three Bet construction, I saw The Kentucky Oaks as a two horse race and my first gamble of the weekend was slicing my options down to just Blind Luck and Amen Hallelujah. That worked out but my inner race Superfecta bet fell apart. I had Evening Jewel and Tidal Pool pegged into the Show and 4th spot but completely missed on Beautician and that was all she wrote, but, I was alive. Looking back in the PP's, I still don't see Beautician finishing here, but Amen Hallelujah dropped like a stone the last few hops and opened the door. Another principal of my handicapping is avoiding pre race hype and after I built my bet and I started to do some reading I was surprised by how hyped Crisp and It's Tea Time were. I didn't see it and I discounted them.

The biggest wild card in this Pick Three for me was the Turf Classic. The weather forecasts on Friday were all over the board from Biblical to just bad. My pre race analysis took into account two different scenarios: On turf and taking off turf. I thought the bigger wildcard would be the scratches that came from that. For building a Pick Three win selection I took both my scenario handicaps and I realized I only had one horse in my top five on both turf and dirt, Court Vision. The rest of my possibles were a hybrid of both base handicaps with a premium on horses I thought would run regardless of the surface and also who may provide some big prices on what otherwise would be a chalky pick three. I inserted Court Vision and Battle of Hastings from my on turf scenario and General Quarters, Wise River and Al Khali from my off turf scenario. We are gambling right? We take chances right? We also get VERY LUCKY sometimes. I did not like General Quarters in this spot on the turf and was only in my Pick Three because of his dirt abilities, and even then, he was lousy on the slop in the Kentucky Derby last year. I love General Quarters but I don't bet my favorites, I try to bet who I think is going to actually win. I am enjoying being wrong this morning and still being right. We'll take it and I was still alive. And now the big event!

I didn't have any deep belief on which runner would win this race after Sidney's Candy drew 20 and Looking at Lucky drew 1. I don't think either colt is "special" enough to overcome bad draws, heavy traffic and lots of thrown mud after being conditioned to not have that with the fake dirt. I tossed the filly Devil May Care as well as nothing more then an owner wanting something that the horse couldn't do. I liked my base handicap quite a bit in terms of layers of horses as tosses, possible exotics and probable winners. The slop added a wild card and after spending a few days watching morning work (it seemed to be in favor to bash morning works this week as not important-I disagree). I backed gingerly Conveyance to win. I'm convinced he's a top flight sprinter and from post 12 I knew he would take the lead, but I was hopeful M. Garcia would rate him and put up mildly slow fractions and give him the speed at the top of the stretch. It was my thought but :22 3/5ths and :46 cooked both him and Sidney's Candy.

The Turk Clan was over the house and the place was buzzing by 5:45. With one last look at the tote board I took my base handicap top five and boxed them for the trifecta. I also threw $10 down on Conveyance, Nobles Promise and Stately Victor to win, all big prices with a chance. My base handicap was pretty darn good and I took down $2,237 with the long prices of Paddy O'Prado and Ice Box bumping up the score. I almost bet the superfecta which returned a whopping $202,569 but I would have never hit it with Make Music for Me unless I bet a ton, not my bag baby!

Congratulations to Todd Pletcher and Calvin Borel. I saw some great cell phone pictures on Facebook yesterday (thanks to Paula W) of Todd watching the race in a small office sitting in a dingy green office chair with his expensive suit and the boots that belied the fact that at his heart, he's a horseman who suffered for years the ridicule of people who said he couldn't win the big one. Pretty ludicrous considering how few actually make it every year. Here's hoping for a Triple Crown.

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Oaks-Turf Classic-Kentucky Derby Pick Three

So I had it all planned out. This Turk's been happily wearing his Mine That Bird hat since last Father's Day (Thanks Mrs. Turk)and after the Wood Memorial I went to horsehats.com and got myself a sporty Eskendereya hat. Hopefully I'll be proud to wear that hat later this summer.

I try to enjoy Oaks/Derby Day as a fan more then a horse player. These are big fields, the best of the best, and when you factor in new distances, heavy rains, the handicapping trends towards hope-capping instead of intelli-capping. All that said, I'm busting out a few bucks from the YouBet account and I'm going to have some fun with a multi day, multi race bet, The Oaks/Turf Classic/Kentucky Derby Pick Three and the Oaks/Derby Double.

Because of the multi day event, I've had to handicap tomorrows races with the expectation that the rains could be very heavy. I've handicapped the Kentucky Derby with the expectation that the track will be very sloppy and I've handicapped the Turf Classic on and off turf. The BIG wildcard will be scratches. We can't worry it. I'll be back tomorrow to handicap Pick Threes and Pick Fours and assemble some inner race betting and we'll assess then. Let's Let it Ride!

The Oaks/Turf Classic/Kentucky Derby Pick Three (spreadsheet attached)



I'll be betting as I laid out for the Oaks as well as the Pick Three. I'm also going to bet the Oaks/Derby Double and eliminate the wildcard of the Turf Classic.

Have fun with it, more soon. Turk Out!