The Nomination Is In: The Charles Town Classic G2

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our eleventh year of blogging and celebrating 33 years of horse playing, if that's something to be celebrated (I know it is by my rabid audience of readers.)

I'd like to thank The Thorofan, and the Handicapper's Corner, for this opportunity to share my thoughts with you today on the Good Friday.

This is the sort of race I hear a lot of fellow horse players starting to call this year's edition of the upcoming Kentucky Derby, a bettors race.  There is no heavy favorite, there are multiple horses a handicapper can make a case for, and there is a growing feeling of a chaotic mutuel end result.  Perhaps that's the case here but that also assumes the big three don't factor in the top two if you are an exacta player.  At worst, the lowest of the favorite odds is finishing second and long odds win the race.  The big three by the morning line have winning odds that add up to 60.5% and if you put the top four Morning Line odds in you are at 77%.

While it's a subject for another day, you should be focused on who can win and how does the overall public view the odds of the horse you identified could win.  In doing this analysis you are creating a fair odds line for yourself.  You'll notice the odds on the Morning Line's don't add up to 100% and the reason for that is pesky little things like takeout (major) and a bunch of other small deducts from your betting dollar like rounding and breakage (minor).  Ignore that.  I'll actually take a minute to tell you that if you are gambling solely on morning line odds you should really consider reading a good book and learning to handicap yourself because most track odds makers tend to introduce biases into their work, and they have an obligation to tell you the most likely winning odds, not who is an overlay.

Overlay: An underestimated horse by the betting public.

Underlay: An overestimated horse by the betting public and what you get when you read and consume most horse racing fluff pieces.

I'm jumping ahead, but quite frankly this discussion to me is more interesting the the actual race and maybe helpful to my readers who are more casual and social bettors.  Look at my chart below.

Diamond King was a 20% ML winner and I have him at 18.19%.  That is first signal of open betting race, a ML and Fair Line odds of 4-1 or worse.

Look at Unbridled Jean:  6.25% ML, a 15-1 shot, yet the Turk Fair Line has him at 14.29% or 6-1.  Forget if I'm right or wrong, that is the Overlay you are looking for.  To get better as a handicapper you have to practice.  To get better as a bettor you have to trust your handicapping and act on when you identify an Overlay.  I can't tell you how many times I'd identify Overlays but lacked the courage to bet them or even put them in a chart like this because of fear of comments from other handicappers or on social media.  Think about it like this:  I gave Unbridled Jean odds to not finish first 85.71%.  When he doesn't win tomorrow was I dumb for betting him?  Another subject for another day but if you are betting a safe choice, with short odds in the Win Spot race after race, you need a new hobby. 

Underlays?  Again this race isn't great for the examples because of the relatively small bid-ask between the ML and the Fair Lines, but Discreet Lover, a horse and trainer I absolutely love as a fan, by my handicap is the biggest underlay, and with that pronouncement,"... let's announce to the winners circle....Discreet Lover."

Let this bald handicapping idiot savant shut up for a moment and lets get after the race!



My handicap and thinking are influenced by the fact I expect the track to still be wet at race time tomorrow.  I know most of the rains will be gone by post time but I think alot will fall and I have to consider what I think the track will be like based on what I know now so this rubbish insightful commentary can be published before lunch on Friday, 30 hours before the race.  You don't have that burden, so use the information you have effectively, such as track conditions and scratches and changes. 

I like Diamond King, son of Quality Road, buts he nothing more than light chalk. I could run down the whole field but I'm not sure of the value quite frankly.  in bullet points:

• Diamond King: 4 YO with 5 wins in 11 career starts.  Low 400 Tomlinson. last race win as chalk. Servis and Castellano 0-4 over past year together.  Tepid.
• Unbridled Jean:  7 YO loses class war but solid career with 25 of 29 races in the money.  6 of 7 in the money over wet dirt. good early speed, strong final kick, will need tactical speed breaking from 10 post. 
• War Story:  Easy Choice, Safe bet. 16 of 32 in the money with $2.6 MM in earnings from a $5,000 stud fee. I think he gets bet hard and goes to gate 2-1 or 3-2. 2 wins in 3 wet races. 
• Mongolian Groom: California Shipper.  Trainer Genbat no stakes wins in past year.  Slow Early, good late speed.  Breaking along rail. Eh. 
• Rally Cry: Last win April 2017. Race best 417 Tomlinson but one Show wet start. Good overall speed early and slow.  Pletcher an amazing 33% winner off +180 day layoff as hasn't gone since Woodward.  Was my chalk, still could win, one of those horses that should be better than his record, 6 YO and 14 career starts.  

 I don't know what i'm going to do yet, but I'll take my top five and assemble win and exacta bets.  If forced to choose now I'm leaning towards something simple like this:

Unbridled Jean 10 Over  3-9-1-4 a $2 Exacta for $8.  Odds of winning low,  odds of paying well if it does win, high.  That's how the long game is played.  My real inclination is to walk away but you only need to win a few of these low risk $8 bets in a year to boost your overall ROI. 

Have fun with it friends!

Turk Out.