Welcome Friends to The Turk and Little Turk Blog, with a narrow focus on handicapping, primarily older turf runners, since 2008. In those years we have written over 680 blog posts and given bet suggestions on almost all of them. Our most recent handicap of the Pacific Classic gave a $2 Exacta Bet for $20 that returned $93.20. Past results are not an indication of future, but over a long period of time this blog has offered bet constructions and documented the success. While its terribly difficult to eek out positive ROI race after race, I have proven that focusing on a small group of races and really analyzing in depth can allow me to make good race track investments. My objectives: Relaxation, small profits and sharing my insights with my small but passionate reader base.
Kentucky Downs is one of my favorite tracks, and with the unsettled future of Arlington Race Track, is easily my favorite turf course in the United States. Tomorrow marks the first of six days of live racing of this boutique meet and I hope to play at least one race every day. Let's get after the Dueling Ground Derby $750K.
Saratoga Derby Invitational G1: 7 Aug 21; 1 3/16 Firm Turf: Yes This Time, Palazzi, Cellist, De Jour
Dueling Grounds Derby 2018- Posted just for reference. 10 Starters
This is a race of potential, as three year old turf horses are generally an evolution. For that reason I typically avoid three year old turf races because of the uncertainty, but I say that and uncertainty, big fields and plenty of handle can produce the type of fun that makes me look forward to the Kentucky Downs boutique meet every year.
The handicap above is what I call my Base Handicap. You can see in the ML Column the Morning Line represented in decimal form. 26% above 100% is not a mistake, that is what drives the administrative costs associated with racing. At some tracks this number has drifted above 130%. This represents a real challenge for the horseplayer to overcome and another reason why betting tote board favorites is a bad idea.
I actually don't have a lot of respect for the Morning Line. I respect and know some of the people whose name is associated with these tracks for DRF, and they are just overworked. They don't have the two hours per race I'll often dedicate to analysis. That said, I like to show them just to get a feel for how Joe Public Bettor is going to start off looking at this race. One that pops out to me is how undervalued Red Hornet is by the ML compared to my analysis. The Fair Line takes the odds back to 100% and places win odds on the field. My fair line will have many more 50-1, 2% or longer odds on the field than a morning line will because I don't have the 26% to deal with. As you can see, I've assigned an 84% chance one of the top five horses in my base handicap will win the race. While I don't typically place Win Bets, Modern Science (Ire) and Last Samurai have a 10% chance of winning, and with unpredictability in the trips these horses might face, would be worth a $2 win bet at odds provided the public doesn't over bet them. This is a form of Tote Board Handicapping I encourage in these large fields without dominant top contenders, just pick some prices off the board that your Fair Odds Line tell you have value.
What am I going to do with this?
My indecisive $1 Exacta is 3-5-8-9-12 OVER 3-4-5-8-9-11-12 for $30 could still produce a 20% return, the low end of my investment strategy threshold. I need to be a bit more adventurous and not be so worried about losing and instead give myself an opportunity for a solid +50% ROI.
With one removal the bet drops to $20. I'm going to pull De Jour down. Why the ML and Turk Line chalk? He is starting in post 12 and his late speed hasn't been great. I'm going to assume he gets gobbled up. I like the value my $20 Bet represents even if its likely to lose.
I don't know what the track conditions will be like as it most likely will start raining as the day goes on. I wouldn't change anything with my choice either way.
Welcome Friends to The Turk and Little Turk Blog, with a narrow focus on handicapping, primarily older turf runners, since 2008. In those years we have written over 680 blog posts and given bet suggestions on almost all of them. Our most recent handicap of the Pacific Classic gave a $2 Exacta Bet for $20 that returned $93.20. Past results are not an indication of future, but over a long period of time this blog has offered bet constructions and documented the success. While its terribly difficult to eek out positive ROI race after race, I have proven that focusing on a small group of races and really analyzing in depth can allow me to make good race track investments. My objectives: Relaxation, small profits and sharing my insights with my small but passionate reader base. 
