It's just numbers and pattern recognition. While there are always outliers, if you approach your handicapping from the same place mentally, with the same application of thoughts applied to the runners, if you avoid the greatest traps of all, "the biases", you'll likely predict winners regularly and be successful with your handicap to at least have a fighting chance at assembling a proper bet.
Two different sides of the coin, handicapping and bet construction. I am a top shelf handicapper, especially with my approach to only handicapping in low volumes, but I'm just an OK bettor, much better as a bettor (say that three times) when I don't concern myself with losing. That's a hard thing when you write about the races and your perceived credibility is measured strictly by wins and losses. It took me a long time to realize that the only person who will ever truly know at how good I am at the horse game is me, and once I realized that, I stopped picking chalk to win in these written blog posts and started picking the best risk/reward combinations. I always did that when I was just sitting in the stands and banging out bets, but it's more difficult than you might imagine when you write out the handicap and you are sticking your ass and credibility out there. Anyways, I've been doing this a very long time and my closest readers know my handicappers eye, that's all I really care about.
Bias. Avoid the biases
Authority Bias: Morning Line or TV Personality picks.
Bandwagon Effect: Putting aside my fan instincts.
Confirmation Bias: Keep an open mind and don't prejudge the outcomes prematurely.
Recency: Important, but not everything. Where are these athlete's in their cycle?
You'll find the Race Replay here at NYRA Website, I wasn't able to find a shareable Youtube video yet.
As I said prerace, Xigera was heavy chalk and I predicted 5 out of 10 times he would win this race. The real key is always identifying horses that can run better than their odds and horses that don't deserve their short odds. I already identified that Xigera deserved short odds, but look at Defining Purpose, fourth down the tote board at $7.2-$1 odds. I thought she could match Xigera early (she did) I thought she could be better late (she couldn't). Still, a simple $1 Exacta Box of these two returned $8.20 on a $2 investment. That's how you make money better favorites in the Exacta.
If you boxed my top four in the Superfecta a $1 bet for $24 returned $63.50. It ultimately comes down to the handicapper's secret weapon, the Fair Odds table. I didn't win these bets, I would have never placed these bets, but the handicap and the analysis pointed to these selections and this race is a classic "don't overthink it" example. Undervalued Asset was early speed and hadn't been past 6.5f. Foggy Night was slow overall but had early speed. Julia Shining has the flashy pedigree but doesn't know what she is, nor does Peak Popularity. You see these sorts of patterns every week. A handicapper must learn to understand why a horse is entered into the particular race and what the plan is for that horse by the connections.
Xigera, if she comes back as a 4 YO, will be fun to watch. Everyone else, what is the plan?
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog. I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.
I've been on a Handicappers Holiday since late August. Just like the horses need to go the the farm and freshen up, I find that my handicapping is better when I take some time away. I've already started Breeders' Cup video preparation so this weekend is a good time for me to start looking at past performances again, and The Mother Goose at Belmont at the Big A is a good handicapping challenge for me. Why? These runners, most of who are Breeders' Cup eligible, most likely didn't peak well enough to earn a place on World Championship weekend. It doesn't mean they are bad horses, it's just that their current condition wasn't where it needed to be in some of the key races in August, September and early October. I count five graded stakes win amongst the seven horses, a G1, a G2 and three G3. There is a lot to prove from the classiest of runners here, yes I'm looking at the $435,000 purchase of Peak Popularity, the $625,000 Occult, the $225,000 Julia Shining and the $190,000 Xigera. I also think it's ok at this time of the year to start and second guess the tactics of horses having underwhelming seasons who are in the barns of the mega trainers. Two Browns and a Pletcher here that fit that description, and I think it's fair game to question the choices made in their three year old campaigns. I'm of the mind that owners should not be so differential to the Big Barns and get some more personalized attention with smaller outfits, but I'm just a handicapper and a fan of this game for the better part of 40 years, what do I know.
Anyways, my other rule as a handicapper is to not worry about what runners aren't here, or what the field's overall quality is, just handicap what's on the paper and what you see in the video. Let's get after it!
Let's start with video of the runner's last starts.
The Cotillin G1: 1 1/16 miles over slop at PARX; 23 September 2023; Foggy Night/1, Occult/5, Defining Purpose/7
Seneca Overnight Race 9 23 September 2023: 1 1/16 on Fast Dirt
Allowance $115K N1X; SAR 1 1/4 miles off turf sloppy dirt: Peak Popularity/2
The Alabama G1; SAR 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt; Julia Shining/3 Defining Purpose/7
The Gallant Bloom G2: BEL Big A; 1 October 2023 6.5F Fast Dirt; Undervalued Asset/4
I don't think this was an overly difficult field to handicap on paper, but the video was an exercise in trying to see potential that hasn't translated into performance.
Xigera is the most impressive to me. In a recent interview with the NYRA press, trainer Bauer said "...we made sure the work two out (from the Breeders' Cup) was a good one and we were still trying to decide if we were going to fly out to California. We talked in circles about it and decided that maybe the best thing at the moment would be to get her a graded black type win, if we can." That seems like a logical and reasonable approach and she comes in with by far the most impressive last race out. Exceptional early speed, this versatile Turf and Dirt runner comes to NY after training up exceptionally well. Heavy chalk.
Defining Purpose cannot be overlooked. A good place at 14-1 odds in The Alabama before a flat Cotillion in the slop at Parx last time out and a Grade 1 winner at 20-1 at KEE and a Grade 3 winner in the Indiana Oaks. McPeek/Alvarado are not a very successful pairing. Will keep pace early and possibly be better late.
Occult is a bit of a wild card. Very classy, Brown/I. Ortiz combo sizzles, but just hasn't found her defining moment as of yet. Destroyed a pretty weak Monmouth Oaks field for a Grade 3 win at $1.40-1 odds. Rallied, but didn't seem to ever really stretch in the slop of the Cotillion. Went off at 27-1 in the Acorn at Belmont and finished a so-so Place to Pretty Mischievous. What do I know, but maybe a different barn than Brown's would be a better place for her. Dangerous, but hard to depend on the danger.
I have similar thoughts on Julia Shining: I am no pedigree expert but the daughter of Curlin and Dreaming of Julia is having what can only be described as a disastrous 3 YO campaign after winning a Grade 2 at Aqueduct in the slop last December. Two Place finishes, a freshening up and a terrible 57 lengths back beat down at $5.30-1 odds in the Alabama. The works have been steady since mid September and Castellano gets the mount from Saez. Dart throw as to which filly shows up.
Undervalued Asset is another Brown runner and makes the sprint to route jump, stretching out from the 6.5 f of her last race. I'm not sure why she hasn't run past 8f yet, but what do I know, especially with 1 win in 6 tries this year and 3 Place finishes where she was moving forward at the wire.
So what do I do with all this? I like Xigera a lot and toyed with making her shorter than 7-5 (42%) in my fair odds chart. I also have no interest in betting her if her odds shorten from her Morning Line of 6-5. I'm thinking something along the lines of $2 Exacta 7-5-3-4 OVER 6 for $8. I like the risk/reward of putting the heavy chalk in the Place spot but I think if this race is run ten times she wins maybe 5 times and the Bauer team gets rewarded for their patient approach.
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