Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on turf handicapping and exacta bet construction.
The Turk feels 1,000 pounds lighter. I'm currently transitioning in my work career into a new company and new position. At 58, the Turk needed a change of pace. "Growth must be chosen again and again, fear must be overcome again and again" said Maslow, who theorized a hierarchy of needs that all humans must have to be fulfilled. I was in a safe comfortable place and the trade off was a lack of growth and self actualization. I get the opportunity to meet and talk with many young people entering the work force or with less than 10 years of work experience and I always tell them never to be afraid of change because if you apply yourself, show up and be engaged and accountable, you will always have work. I took my own advice. I thank my former employer of over 33 years. I step into the unknown prepared, engaged and ready to continue my growth.
Let's get after this!
Today's focus the is Robert G. Dick Memorial G3, named in honor of the Delaware Racing Commission longtime chairman. The weather should be incredible, albeit hot. You'll find track conditions and scratches and changes here.
I won't spend too much time on Video today but I thought this first video was a good lesson in turf handicapping beyond 10 furlongs.
25 May 2024 CD; The Keertana $234K; 1 1/2 Miles on firm turf
Early speed isn't something I really care about. One of the first things I do is analyze late turn of foot utilizing the Timeform US Pace figs. You can read about how to use that data here. I generally set a value and measure the horses relative to that value. In this case I set par at 110. Of this par figure, Atomic Blonde (Ger) is 19 points above it and the best in the field, followed by War Like Goddess at +10, and in the rear of the field Alpha Bella at -21 (the early pace leader btw) and Vergara at -17. It's one value, and it can be misleading, but we put it into the mental handicapping data calculator and weight it slightly higher.
The Robert G. Dick Memorial G3; 1 3/8 Miles on Turf. F&M 3 YO and Up
The Turk likes to adjust the Morning Lines back to add up to 100%. First of all, I don't use the Morning Lines to handicap and I actually don't look at them until my handicap is done and I'm building this chart. Track handicappers are busy and many of them are just rushing through their work. The tote board and odds at Post Time are much better BUT I don't have a time machine to compare to those. Finally, with track takeout now approaching 30%, it just skews the values. I adjust the morning line back to 100% just using simple proportions so I can more readily compare to my Fair Line and then I look for blatant over and underlays. Nothing really pops off the paper to me except I value Alpha Bella (easily the early speed and worst late runner) higher than the track handicapper. At Marathon distance in January, she wired the field with decent fractions and really nice late speed of :47.1 and :23.3. It's not outside the realm of possible and we are in the business of developing bet constructions that can actually return positive ROI over a long time and you need dart throws now and then to do that.
From class perspective, head and shoulders above all is $2.6 MM winner War Like Goddess, purchased for $30,000 in 2019. Mott brings the 7 year old in 2nd off a long layoff, which he wins 12% of the time, and she's racing at 118, her lowest carry since 2022. I generally sleep on weights, but you have most of my other contenders carrying 6 additional pounds. Hard to ignore.
Atomic Blonde (Ger) has failed to win any of the four previous tries at this distance but is 9 of 20 in the exacta over turf. 1 win in last nine tries is a big red flag but I really like her driving outside win in the race I showed above. I think she'll attract a lot of attention at windows.
I have a trio of horses I could throw a blanket over: Alpha Bella is a 4 YO Justify who seems a bit slow overall. She's still young in this game and her time might not be now, but she's 7 of 10 in the money over grass for Trainer Pletcher. Chop Chop is 4 of 5 in turf race exactas and is one race in the money away from becoming a millionaire. The 4 YO has decent early and late speed, tactical. Cox puts Prat up, and they are 30% winners with 129 races. Vergara is saddled by Trainer Motion, who leads all other trainers lifetime in this race with 9 wins (35% winner). Ruiz is up.
La Mehana (Fr) is Clement's other runner in the race, with J. Ortiz up. 5 wins in 13 turf starts. Let's take a look at her close at the end of the Sheepshead Bay G3 in early May.
While not a big field, that was a hell of a race and La Mehana could have easily won and looked great. It's a good example of needing to marry the past performance (3rd place by a head with a 4w upper, closed well comment) to the video.
I tossed three at my risk with the most talented being Freydis the Red (Fr). I'm not sure I like her at distances this great but she has been versatile in distance, racing from 8 to 12 furlongs for Trainer McPeek.
What to do with this? I'm doing what I said I'd do, I'm not picking the handicap but constructing a bet that has the most value if it hits. Yes, I won't win as many, but when I do, good times!
La Mehana(Fr)/1 OVER War Like Goddess/9, Atomic Blonde/5, Chop Chop/7 and Alpha Bella/6, a $2 dollar Exacta for $8. Vergara would make it $10.
