The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I write about mostly older horses running routes over grass, and from that I assemble exacta bets. I've been a handicapper since the mid 1980's and a horse racing blogger since 2008.
I didn't think Ethical Diamond had a chance.
Nothing here screams it: a Maiden at start of 5 YO campaign.His jockey jumped to 2X Turf Winner Rebel's Romance.
Nothing here screams winner: Most of his $521K in earnings from 2025 after a brutal 2024 (someone believed in him!). The race chart implies pressing and not deep closer. Only 1/5 of his earnings from this distance.
Breeders' Cup Turf G1: 1 1/2 Miles for 3 YO and Up
14 September 2025; Curragh; Irish Leger G1;
Amiloc (GB) Place finish for 3 YO gelding. 6 of 6 Lifetime Exacta
27 September 2025; Aqueduct; Turf Classic G1;
El Cordobes (Ire) (Show 3 3/4 back), Rebel Red (GB) (5th 7 3/4 back), Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Win 3 1/2 in front ), Redistricting (GB) (Place 3 1/2 back)
23 August 2025; York (GB); Ebor Handicap Stakes Class 2;
Ethical Diamond (Ire) (Win by 2 1/2)
27 September 2025; Santa Anita; John Henry Turf Championship G1;
Gold Phoenix (Ire) (Win by 1 1/4 in front)
7 September 2025; Baden-Baden (Ger); Grosser Preis von Baden G1;
Goliath (Ger) (Win by 1 1/4 lengths)
4 October 2025; Aqueduct; Jockey Club Derby Invitational G2;
Hill Road (Show 2 1/2 lengths back)
5 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe G1;
Minnie Hauk (Ire) (Place by a head)
4 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix Dollar G2;
Rashabar (Ire) (4th- 4 lengths back- (French Only Video-Green, Blue Sleeves, Green Dots on White #9 horse)
4 October 2025; Woodbine; Canadian International G1;
Silawi (Ire) (Win by a nose), Tawny Port (Place by a nose)
30 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Nashville Derby G3
Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) (Win by a head), Hill Road (Show 3 3/4 lengths back)
The Breeders Cup Turf G1: 1 1/2 Miles on the Del Mar Turf Course, for 3 YOs and Up
What I said Prerace:
I was going to call this an interesting field, and then I thought about it, and if you removed Minnie Hauk (Ire) and Rebel's Romance (Ire) from the field, then it would be a very interesting AmericanGrade 1 turf race. Including them makes this a top heavy race with a fairly mediocre bottom of the field, especially at the outside posts. The filly, Minnie Hauk (Ire), as morning line favorite at 8-5 I didn't think was appropriate. Yes she carries 7 less pounds than Rebel's Romance but it's her 8th start, the furthest she's traveled before coming to Del Mar was Ireland to France, a flight too short to pass out complimentary beverages. At 3 YO, if this filly wins it will be shocking and historic. Yes she can, I don't think it will happen. But it's not exactly like Rebel's Romance winning will provide value. The two of them combined for 51.5% of the adjusted Morning Line and 53.6% of Turk's Fair Odds. I think we will have to get creative with the Betting Structure to realize value.
1. Have Rebel's Romance (Ire) or Minnie Hauk (Ire) first with a few logical late runners in Place.
2. Swing for the Fence: Put a bunch of Horses (my non-RED) in Win Spot and put both Minnie Hauk and Rebel's Romance in Place Spot.
I priced out both at $24 Dollar Options:
$2 Exacta: 1-8 OVER 2-10-4-3-9-6 for $24
OR
$2 Exacta 2-10-4-3-9-6 OVER 1-8
I'm not wasting money on the most logical, a 1-8 Boxed finish.
Exacta History for 2024-2025
Tomlinson Analysis for Turf and Distance:
The Race Replay
Ethical Diamond's run in the visualization below is just as impressive as what my eyes saw. Paying $282 on a $2 exacta with 2-1 Rebel's Romance, it showed the strategy I had of putting the favorites in Place and a bunch of long shots in Win Spot was sound, I just picked the wrong long shot. Honestly, I didn't see this coming and sometimes you can complete the post mortem and come away with no other lesson except you can't win them all!
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing and Exacta Betting. "Specialize" is not how I feel this week, as I had Ethical Diamond at something like 3% chance to win the Breeders' Cup Turf. I'd love to tell you how I thought highly of him and he was my wise guy pick, yada, yada, yada, but no. I don't think I would have picked that horse, considering the field he was in, to finish in my exacta unless I boxed the whole field. Beware the handicapper and bet constructor who can't admit he was wrong. I'm going to diagnose both my handicap, pre race analysis and the video in a longer post tomorrow, just because I like pain and I also like to try to learn. The only sign was improving Timeforms, but in that field, at his post draw, I still don't see it. Anyways, I'll stop grumbling.
Turf racing is over for the year. Yes I know there are some races, but for all legitimate purposes, it's done. When you like turf racing, and you like older horses, this time of the year is slow and slim pickings, but the good people at The Thorofan asked me (they didn't read my Breeders' Cup debacle....shhh, or they won't invite me again) handicap the River City at Churchill Downs, so that is the mission.
It's not a terrible field. This time of year you get older horses possibly taking one last run before retirement or 4 YOs who are building on their improvements, with very little high end class, or graded stakes wins, to show for it.
Conversely, not a lot of video I think worth looking at for this race. Interestingly, so much of this field is early speed, and not a lot of success in the field at the distance, with only five (5) 1 and 1/8 Mile wins combined.
Before I go to far, I'd be tone death to not mention that Louisville is having a terrible week following the airplane crash that left at least 13 dead, with 9 or more missing. Say a prayer for the area as they continue to heal and bury the dead. Prayer, regardless of your beliefs, helps, and never lose sight of the fact that as humans, we are all interconnected.
The weather should be mostly dry after some rain on Friday. Keep an eye on turf conditions, as this is the last race on the card tomorrow at almost 6 PM and two other races, non graded stakes, are on the card. Today is listed as firm with rail at 36 feet, it's max position.
Let's Get After This:
Exacta History: Exacta In The Money (ITM) > 60% in BOLD
Visualization of Early and Late US Timeform Pace: Three true late speed, a few tactical, albeit slow mid runners and a bunch of very early speed.
I set Par for this race as 75 Early and 105 Late
Tomlinson Number Analysis with Focus on Distance
8 Nov 2025 CD; The River City Handicap G3; 1 1/8 Miles on Turf
So, What to do with all that? If I'm being honest, I think I'm burned out on handicapping this year because I'm without a very strong opinion. Everyone can sometimes use a break, and post Breeders' Cup I generally shut it down. It doesn't help I uked all over myself in my annual Super Bowl, The Breeders' Cup Turf (can you tell I'm gripping?).
I'm going to value the late speed of Chasing the Crown/6: Loves Churchill, 6 for 6 in the exacta. Has a win 1/2 furlong shorter so I'm not holding the distance against him but its a wildcard he has to overcome. Not the best horse in the field, not the best trainer/jock combo, but I like all of it added together. My chalk.
I like Taking Candy/12 more than others, and I have the 5 YO son of Twirling Candy for Lael Stables as a win contender I like his early tactical speed and decent late turn of foot. Place in G2 two back and a G3 win four back.
I have a crowded group just below these two that I think are all legitimate exacta contenders.
Corruption/8 is an improving 4 YO who has just been building all 2025 after entering the year as a maiden. Acquitted himself well in 4th in The Manhattan in the deep G1 waters, same in the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs.
Lagynos/9 doesn't win much, 3 wins in last 18 but 9 Place and Show in that time frame. $1.7 MM lifetime winner, won the $500K Tapit at Kentucky Downs by 5 lengths and ran back in Place 9 days later in a grade 3. Off since September 6, a break Asmussen wins 16% of the time on 485 tries. Dettori is up, winless in 5 CD starts over past year.
Epic Ride/2 is a $1.9 MM career winner at 4 YO and a 2024 Kentucky Derby entrant before going to turf in June of 2025. 1 turf win in 4 tries and today the longest stretch out beyond 8 furlongs since the Kentucky Derby. Big early speed. Quality horse, no doubt. More questions for me than answers.
Encino/4 is a Brad Cox, gaudy stats Brad,(24% Graded Stakes Winner, 22% Turf, 27% Synth to Turf, 28% Routes, 26% winner at CD with I. Ortiz, Up)with another improving 4 YO making only his 3rd turf start. First time at CD, First time at distance on turf, very classy son of Nyquist for Godolphin. More questions than answers as well.
Mercante/7 had a very good start to season in 2025, winning 3 of first 5 races before going backward a bit. Oddly placed as 60-1 shot at Keeneland in Turf Mile last month, cutting back 4 furlongs from Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs. Has a Place Finish/101 Beyer at this track and distance in May in a Grade 1 and followed that up with a G3 with 1/2 furlong shorter at CD. Not sure what to make of him.
If I boxed 6-12-8-9-4-2 (Skipping Mercante) for $2, that's a $60 bet. Too pricy and lousy risk/reward. This improves somewhat dropping the 4-2 from Win Position, a $2 bet for $24. That's my base bet.
If you are playing after the Breeders' Cup, I tip my hat to you, a real horseplayer.
