Saturday, March 6, 2010
The Nomination Is In: March 6, 2010; Aqueduct Pick Three w/ The Toboggan as well as The Gotham
The early part of today has the Turk's mind thinking about Aqueduct. Past winters I have played the track regularly but for whatever reason this year I haven't been as compelled by the runners there. That's starting to change as I'm thinking of altering my New Year's Resolution to go to the Arkansas Derby and instead travel down to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial. As much as I looked forward to Oaklawn, the idea of going there during what most likely will be a weekend of high scalper tickets and Rachel/Zenyatta madness makes the idea less appealing. Today's foray into Aqueduct starts with an early Pick Three that's kicked off by the Grade III Toboggan and then The Grade III Gotham later in the afternoon. Let's get it on!
Aqueduct Race 4-5-6-10
A smallish field of five contests today's Grade III Toboggan. I'm generally a quality over quantity fella, and I like the quality very much but would have preferred a bit more quantity. Handicapper's have a choice to just not bet, but I'm game for the Pick Three.
Trainer Terranova brings Wall Street Wonder into the race coming off a gaudy 109 BSF on the inner course in late January. 2 for 2 at the Big A, 2 of 3 on Fast Dirt and 8 of 12 lifetime in the money for the 4 YO son of City Place. Trainer Terranova and Jock Hill combine for 40% winners and Terranova is 24% off 31-60 Day layoffs. I like the inner course record and my only concern is how he came out of last race, but I'll roll the dice.
Turk favorite Custom for Carlos, winner of the Grade III Mr. Prospector at GP ships in for Trainer Kenneally for his first Aqueduct start. 5 of 5 in the money at the distance 6 of 6 in the money lifetime on fast dirt. Lifetime best BSF for the race and 10 straight 90+ BSF's. The son of More then Ready is more then capable of winning and has J. Leparoux up.
Another 2 for 2 winner at Aqueduct is Elusive Warning running for Trainer Mclaughlin with the Mig up. Only 9th start for the 6 YO son of Elusive Quality with a stint overseas for the Darley owned horse.
Driven by Success starts for new trainer, T. Pletcher today, something Pletcher wins 12% of the time. 2 wins in last 11 for the 5 YO gelding. Capable of big efforts.
For the Pick Three I'm leaning towards a 3 X 3 X 2 for an $18 dollar bet. In Race 5, a 1 Mile 70 yard OC 50K/N2X affair, I like Sawtooth Mountain, blinkers on for trainer DeRosa. 16th career start for the 4 YO son of Johannesburg who has 2 wins at Aqueduct under his girth.My only other non tosses are The Roundhouse and Half Metal Jacket.
In Race 6, a Maiden Special Weight 49K for F&M 3 YO and up foaled in NYS, if I'm still alive and I don't have a good feeling about that, I'll be looking for either Lindsay's Point or All Sew Smooth.
The Turk will say again, it's tempting to add just one more horse but don't do it! These Pick Three's that I've been winning regularly aren't great payouts when likely horses win so unless you are wildly contrarian in two legs of the Pick Three, don't waste your money. I like them for fun but keep it real and never bet more then you are prepared to lose.
Later in the day, the Grade III Gotham goes off with Wood Memorial hopefuls and seven Triple Crown nominees. The Turk is leaning towards Wow Wow Wow, the Lukas trainee son of Broken Vow from breeder Marylou Whitney Stables. Coming off a win at 1 1/16 at Oaklawn Park and with OP jockey ship in Nakatani up, and Lukas/Nakatani chemistry is rising with a 31% win rate.
After staring at the PP's for a bit of time, I'm going out there with a Stephen Got Even son, I've Got The Fever on my board to place. Comes in off a nice effort in late February at 1 mile at Aqueduct. He ran a sharp final quarter his last time out and Trainer Terranova places Hill up for his third mount in a row on this IEAH runner.
Yawanna Twist is an R. Duttrow trainee stepping up several furlongs in distance but is 2 for 2 at Aqueduct and looks to keep record perfect. It's asking alot so I'll be hedging down more then hedging up.
Peppi Knows is a winner at the Big A at 1 1/16 miles but hasn't got much respect off a pretty slow Whirlaway win. Three Day Rush is a Pletcher trainee that has to show something today after a poor effort in that same Whirlaway.