Saturday, September 11, 2010

Post Race Analysis for Race Day September 10, 2010; The Presque Isle Mile and Pick Three

It's been sometime since the lovely Dita wanted to sit with the Turk for a cigar. While we didn't talk much, instead reflecting quietly on the maduro wrapper and the sun cured tobacco that was loving rolled by the artisans at Padron Cigars, she did say that the fact that The Turk preaches just a few simple principles, that he talks it and walks it, made her want to celebrate. Who am I to say no?

Simple principles. Principle #1 is always to pick your marks. There are lots of races every day, find ones you think you can beat. Principle #2 is that you have to build a base handicap, a reordering of the field from start to finish without the bias of morning lines, talking heads, TVG/HRTV/DRF hype. Principle #3 is to take that handicap and work the tote board. I'm looking for value, not chalk, and with my "built in a vacuum" handicap approach, look for horses you are bullish on that you seem to have a different opinion on then the betting public.

I reckon those are the big three. The Turk hit a nice strike on an unlikely Allowance Race on synthetic track none the less because he followed his principles. Let's go!

Presque Isle Downs Race 5-6-7

The target was the Pick Three. The Pick Three paid $188 and I should have hit it, winning the first and third legs, but missing on the leg I singled. My second highest ranked horse won the race but I made a decision to not spend $36 on a Pick Three that seemed very chalky to me and I can take losing $12 dollars instead of over covering the bet. Others will disagree but over the long run over covering will raise the investment and only marginally increase the ROI.

I was watching the tote board for Race 6 and salivating; My base handicap valued horses that were the 5th and sixth favorites of the betting public. My top horse, New Englander was the overwhelming bettor's chalk but I thought Place and Show would be owned by these value horses and I'd have a nice payout. Taking my top 5 I rolled the dice, and lacking the time I normally have, I boxed all five and let it ride. Boxing Sherribaldi, Iowa Alice, Jewels and Jeans , the 4th, 5th and 6th top choices of the bettors and then having them actually win produced a $1,442.60 trifecta win.

Remember, this isn't bragging. The Turk doesn't brag and he respects this game. I am humbled by it regularly, but you have to savor the good times along the path of life, and this was a good one for Big Turk because it was an affirmation of my principles and the time that I put into my craft.

I made the strike and didn't even care to bet the Presque Isle Mile, which I had pretty much horsecollered and I left some money on the table in that race, but I'll leave you today with another principle: Don't be greedy, forget the idea of needing "action". Pick and choose the races you bet. If you're not concentrating or you don't feel it, keep your money in your pocket and walk on.

Thanks Mrs. Turk for your patience.

Remember 9/11 and what we collectively lost on that day.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!


Tony Bada Bing said...

You're a good handicapper. Congrats!

The Turk said...

Thanks Bada Bing, from a handicapper as good as you I appreciate it very much.