Monday, November 1, 2010

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Homework Session Part 4

The Turk has a big assignment this week and one that he's woefully prepared to handle: Handicapping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Readers of The Turk know that I'm not a big fan of the Del Mar, Keeneland or Saratoga baby watch and that two year olds just aren't my bag. That said it's a challenge that I look forward to and its not that I can't or haven't handicapped two year olds, I just don't generally care to.

In order to prepare, I have to do my homework. It's important you understand the players and without alot of information to go by on the PP's, all you really have is your eye, the pedigree, and a leap of faith.

In this fourth and final homework session for this race I present to you Riveting Reason, Rogue Romance, Stay Thirsty and the presumed morning line favorite, Uncle Mo. Let's get after it friends!

Riveting Reason: Trainer/Owner Cho Myung Kwon campaigns this son of Fusaichi Pegasus. The Foolish Pleasure is asking the question on many people's minds now, who is Cho Myung Kwon? With Little Turk hailing from Pusan, South Korea, we are partial to this runner as well.

Riveting Reason was in a good stalking position but never seemed to accelerate here in the Norfolk at the Oak Tree at Hollywood. He was striding nicely, just slow behind Jaycito and J.P's Gusto.

And another uninspiring effort by Riveting Reason in the Del Mar Futurity. Watch it again for Jaycito's strong finish and J.P. Gusto's front running.

Rogue Romance: This son of Smarty Jones trained by Kenny McPeak has three starts, winning two including the Grade III Bourbon at Keeneland. A very sharp 5f bullet in :58 2/5ths over the fake stuff on October 23rd shows very tight form.

Stay Thirsty: Another Bernardini son along with Biondetti has one win in three starts and was out finished at 7f by Boys of Tosconova in the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga. Trainer Pletcher has worked Stay Thirsty six times since mid September at Belmont with the most impressive at 5f in 1:00 and 1/5th. Pletcher's stats are hard to gage: 25% winners on over 60 day layoffs, 25% 2YO, 23% sprint to route, 24% two sprints/route, 26% dirt, 22% routes.

And finally, Uncle Mo. A son of Indian Charlie, from Playa Maya (Arch). Pletcher's other Repole Stable runner won in convincing style in the Grade I Champagne.

Breaking his maiden by nearly 15 lengths at Saratoga on August 28

In Zen terms, we should approach this with a beginners mind. Not beginers in the sense of a neopyte handicapper but as one without a hype filled, preconcieved winner already residing within or Turk craniums.

Who's gonna win? Who knows. Uncle Mo will be a safe pick and Boys of Tosconova and Jaycito will be more stylish because of better prices, but I'm not convinced yet. I'll be back tomorrow with an initial base handicap.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

1 comment:

EricTheRed said...

Just came across your blog while doing some studying up on BC. I'm a novice handicapper and I look forward to reading about your and your son's escapades at the track. I have a 2-year-old daughter who loves to sit on daddy's lap at the computer and watch the "horsies" run the replays. Maybe we'll be a formidable parent-child team one day too. Best of luck in the BC. - Eric