Sunday, February 20, 2011

The Nomination is In: February 20, 2011: Santa Anita Pick Three including The San Vicente and Post Race Analysis of the Fair Grounds Pick 3

I'll admit it, a 108 Beyer Speed Figure and impressive work, coupled with Bob Baffert and M. Garcia, has me intrigued by the son of War Front, the grey/roan The Factor. This seven panel affair features six Triple Crown nominees should make for an interesting Sunday at the Great Race Place. I'm reckoning The Factor will win, but he'll be pressed by some horses that can be had a good price, namely Premier Pegasus, Sinai and Indian Winter. I'm featuring The Factor as a single in a very cheap Pick Three comprised of two maiden fillies crapshoots and the San Vincente.

Let's get it on!

Santa Anita Pick Three Races 7-8-9 First Post 6:37 ET

In The San Vincente, I'd like to bet against The Factor, and I'm sure I will for $2-$4 dollars on a horse >4-1 but the race seems to be his to lose. 5f in :58 at SA and 6f in 1:12 and 7f in 1:24 2/5ths over the past six weeks. Nice and steady. In case you didn't see this video, watch the explosiveness but remember it wasn't against much.

Baffert's other entry is Sinai. Most likely a stalker, He'll go blinkers off today and he's been training very sharply. Bejarano is up.

Indian Winter beat several of today's runners in an ungraded stake in mid January returning $20. he will most likely stalk as well.

If the fractions get hot City Cool will be able to put up :21 and change and I think Metropolitan Man will also apply pressure to The Factor. Will he rate or will he put the pedal down? I'm going with the latter.

In Race 7, a MSW 54K for California bred fillies, I like Tribal Mistress, Whoopsie and Maggie McGowan in that order. Closing out the P3 Race 9 is a 30,000 Maiden Claimer for fillies 3 YO and I ike Sparrow, Little Mokush, Cheeky Changa and Together Webetter in that order.

i was a bit of a hot mess in yesterday's pick 3 at Fair Grounds. In the Mineshaft I hit a boxed trifecta in an overall losing effort for the day. I pride myself on the grass but I would have never picked Expansion for the win, nor did the bettors who had him 8th of 9 in The Fair Grounds Handicap.

In the Risen Star I backed Santiva and I'm not that disappointed in the effort. I had Mucho Macho Man third, same as the betting public, but he did well in the stretch. I wasn't high on Rouge Romance and expected more from Machen.

Have fun, Turk out!

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