Saturday, March 3, 2012

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 3, 2012; The Late Pick Three at Santa Anita on Big Cap Day

While the Turk is a family man, he's not above celebrating wins in this humbling game. Big Cap Day at Santa Anita is one for the books for me, just about everything I bet turned out well, and the one I'm shaking my head at, The Super High Five, that elusive devil that I have chased and slayed before, I could have had, but the cost of admission wasn't something I felt confident to do.

No way around it, I've been cold since the Breeders' Cup, not that I've bet much anyways, I've also been distant from the game I love. Feeling ground down by my day job, I've had a real passion shortage and my mood has permeated my handicapping. The one thing I didn't do was try to buy my way out of my funk. I handicapped and handicapped, whole cards, mid week cards, just to shake out the cobwebs. I kept my betting consistent and I knew that the tide would turn. It's that sort of confidence that you have to have if you want to survive not only droughts but survive the good times too. My pre race analysis, just boxing my top six, would have returned nearly $11,000, but it wasn't to be, I only place those kind of bets when I feel 10 foot tall. I feel a bit taller again today.

Thanks to the Lovely Mrs. Turk for her patience with my horse racing mistress. As for the girl in the Panama Hat and the cigar, just a loyal reader.

Let's get after it!

Back in December and early January I made a serious commitment to playing Santa Anita regularly, and when not playing, reviewing the race charts. I have a pretty good feel for the track and how to evaluate the workout tabs over the track. I built base handicaps that I thought were a bit chalky but realistic. From those I tried to find value for the bets.

In Race 9 I saw little value; I liked Reneesgotzip more than Eden's Moon before the race but Eden's Moon clearly has more upside.

In Race 10 I liked Mr. Commons over Willyconker, but I had the bettor's fourth choice high and just as importantly, I had Massone, Megaheat and Make Music for Me as the bottom three and out of the way.

In race 11 I asked in my pre race blog, Why is Ron the Greek here? Trainer Mott doesn't ship for kicks, and he was saddling his first runner of the meet, so why? To win. He had a live horse and a $750K pot, not much else to consider really. This was really nice, competitive field. I was semi surprised how high Setsuko went on the tote board, but he is a California favorite. I had the top five in my top six, only missing on Ultimate Eagle who couldn't outrun his Tomlinson.

Why can't I do this for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner? I guess everyone needs their own personal SI Cover jinx.

Turk Out!

1 comment:

Lisa Gilliam said...

I like the first photo here… Who’s that girl? I actually envy those who can show off their style like that. I grew up in a place where cowboys and cowgirls are a rare sight. That’s why I’m not used to this. But I would definitely want to!