Sunday, June 24, 2012
Post Race Analysis of the Mother Goose and Hollywood Oaks
Zo Impressive, the NY bred daughter of Hard Spun, nips Disposablepleasure at the wire of the Grade 1 Mother Goose. Prerace I settled on a bet strategy of putting Disposablepleasure on top of an exacta with Contested and Believe You Can in the Place Spot. I actually dropped Contested based her toteboard ranking but bet Disposablepleasure over Believe You Can and Zo Impressive for two $2 exacta tickets. I'm not a big fan of five horse races, but it was obvious there were four quality fillies in this race and the top two were not the ones I expected, but again, I am even now looking forward to The Alabama more than I was.
In hindsight the pace profile I expected from Contested and Believe You Can held up; :23/:46.47 / 1:11.28, it was the runners that cracked.
The Hollywood Oaks was another nip at the wire by Potesta over Eden's Moon.
This is the race I would normally have bet, but I just couldn't get my hands around the middle layer of horses: Via Villaggio, Starlight Magic and Eden's Moon, who I was less high on than the betting public that put her atop the tote board. My base handicap was good enough to string together a Superfecta, but I doubt I would have went six deep so this is a case of winning money by not losing money.
Willa B Awesome checked pretty hard in along the rail. I'll be happy to come back to her again. I wanted to see more from Killer Graces than we did. Eden's Moon bounced back nicely after the Kentucky Oaks flop and Potesta, in only her third start looks special.
2012 Mother Goose G1
2012 Hollywood Oaks G2
Have a good Sunday, Turk Out!