Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 14 July 2012: The A Gleam and American Oaks at Hollywood Park

Beautiful Switch, after such a tough 2011 campaign, bounces back strong in last weekend's American Oaks, securing a starting position in the 2012 Breeders'Cup.

The American Oaks was the sort of handicap that reminds me that I'm pretty good at what I do. That's not cockiness, and its not arrogance, it's confidence. I'm placing my hard earned investment capital on the line and I need to know that I am not going to turn a big pile of money into a much smaller pile.

Handicapping isn't my problem, it's the easier part of the two part equation. Bet construction is always the most critical piece of the puzzle. I'm a Superfecta and Pick 4 fella and there's a fine line between overcovering and undercovering, spending too much or too little. I find that while tedious, I must keep good betting records and constantly analyze if my ROI meets or exceeds my investment hurdle.

Just using these two races as an example, the two superfectas cost me $480; That's more than I'm usually comfortable investing but I felt confident that I would hit one or both. Again, arrogance? No, my readers will see a continual involvement of myself at Hollywood this meet. I watched video every race day and I studied the race charts of every stakes and high level allowance race. At the end of each meet is when I do my best, a nugget only gleaned by self analysis.

The rare occasion for me comes along when Handicap and Bet Construction are both perfect. This wasn't one of those weeks, as I rushed the bet construction because of time constraints.

It's always better to realize you made a mistake while not costing yourself too much money. I made about $1,000 last weekend, so why am I so gloomy? At an investment of $480 if I don't win every three races I'm losing money, and again, with an investment hurdle of 20% ROI, I need to win more than 2 out of 3. I'm not that good!

I screwed up but it didn't cost me badly, but its the type of bad habit that can be the difference between a good disciplined bettor with a positive ROI, and a unsuccessful bettor.

The A Gleam Handicap Grade 2

The American Oaks Grade 1

You don't have to become a CPA to have good betting history, and in fact most online betting options have exportable histories to EXCEL. I keep a running spreadsheet and I make a point of reviewing my investment results every week. betting on horses is alot of fun, but winning those bets is even more fun!

Turk Out.

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