Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Post Race Analysis for Raceday 5 April 2014: The Wood Memorial, Carter Handicap and Santa Anita Derby

Hold all Tickets
We've all been at the track and torn up our tickets in disgust after our bets went awry. It's such a visceral thing to dispose of the physical evidence of our missteps. Speaking for myself only, I have race track superstitions and I don't like the losing tickets to be in my pockets or even at my feet as they personify failure. That said, there is always something to be learned from your bets as well as the handicaps. Today I'm just focused on how well my base handicap was.

I had a strong Wood Memorial handicap with the exception of Wicked Strong. Yes, that's loser talk, but the fact is I had four of top five and I had Harpoon and Wicked Strong flip flopped. I expected Harpoon to fire and he never did and I'm not sure I would have ever put Wicked Strong in the win spot based on his Past Performances. I should possibly have respected Jerkens more, knowing he would not have put the horse in that spot without a reason. It's a gray area for me, more guessing than handicapping, but I lost and I'll add to my files and look for the pattern to repeat in the future as these trainer tendencies also repeat. I will say I am very excited anytime a Hard Spun does well, and check out the stride over the last 1/16 of a mile. His father was one tough SOB, we'll see what he's made of. Social Inclusion? good horse, but great, I don't think so. I am impressed by Samraat: gutty and tough, perhaps not a classic distance guy but he will win races. Pretty cool to have a few good 3 YO New York Breds right now.

My Carter Handicap was eh: I would not have picked Dads Cap. I was high on Sahara Sky, not all all interested in the chalk, Clearly Now. I loved Sahara Sky's chase but he needed another panel and there were only 7. I expected lots more from Central Banker too. This info gets filed away for next time out thoughts.

The Santa Anita Derby was California Chrome's shining moment. I liked Hoppertunity, still do, and I'm not sure what to make of Candy Boy yet. The rest of the field was pitiful and the bettors knew it.

Wood Memorial G1

Carter Handicap G1

Santa Anita Derby G1

and while not blogged, the Princess returned....

Cat Clay

Anyways, have fun friends, Turk Out!

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