Saturday, May 3, 2014

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Derby Super Hi-5

The Gods must be against me;  I've been unable to print from DRF's Formulator for the past few days and of all days, Google changed the way I import spreadsheets into my blog.  I have taken a deep breath and refocused on the fact that this is a confounding group of horses running today.

Welcome friends to the biggest race day of the year for casual and non fans, while as a horse player, Kentucky Derby Day is in my top five along with Breeders' Cup Saturday, Travers Day, Arlington Millons Day and Clarke Handicap Day.

The weather will not be an issue at all.  Expect the track to be fast and stop trying to make a case for a good wet surface Tomlinson Number.

I've got a base handicap that singles California Chrome.  For most wise guys, picking the chalk is anathema, and I'm good with that:  I like to study the form too and find good prices that can win, but I think that California Chrome has a better than 40% chance of winning and that's good enough for me.  I'm on the hunt for a Super High 5 at the lowest possible investment, and singling the California bred makes the investment less lucrative but also less expensive.  I was not bullish on Medal Count until I took a second and third look.  I've liked Intense Holiday and I am still a bit in shock over Hoppertunity's scratch.

The Wireplayers Derby Dozen Gang had pretty mixed views in the final poll.  Pay attention to this list as it was prepared by horseplayers far better than I.  For people new to the sport, there is no finer website for the beginner than Hello Race Fans!  You'll find everything you need there to get started.

I'll most likely be playing with my matrix all day but below is my current thinking.  The group listed as C+/C is where heart break will most likely come.

Anyways, handicapping is about taking a position.  Betting is about having conviction in your handicap.  Have fun and pick away and ignore the experts and idiot bloggers alike.

Turk Out!


Wubert said...

Thoughts on how Commanding Curve finished second? I have been trying to figure this out, hopefully to learn from it. One site did give him props for possibly being a contender.

The Turk said...

Wubert, Commanding Curve finishing second wasn't so far fetched. The group that I vote with were talking him up this week. Check out a blog called to find some really insightful takes on value horses.

I discounted Commanding Curve for lots of reasons, and in hindsight I would have done it again. You can't pick everyone.

Remember longshots are more likely to finish second instead of first so I suggest to my friends to single the favorite and bet 5-10 of the longshots on Derby Day. For 20 dollars you could have 10 different exacta selections, with yesterday's paying $315.00

19 horse races aren't that easy, especially at a distance none of them have ever run. Watch the video and see how much movement in positions there was in the last quarter mile. Its a bit of a crap shoot.

Thanks for reading!