Saturday, October 25, 2014

Breeders' Cup Classic Video Handicapping/Preliminary Handicapping

Tonalist; image courtesy of Chelsea Durand
The Turk has been on the blogging sidelines since the Triple Crown season ended.  While still playing the horses, I reckon after six years I didn't have much to offer my readers.  I'm not sure I have much to offer now either, but it's time to start banging the keyboard and talk about the horses again.

I could go to the Breeders' Cup:  I've been to a few, and I'm going to be around Arcadia most of the week, but quite frankly it is hands down my favorite betting/investment opportunity of the year and I'd rather be home at Turk Central with two laptops going, an iPAD and all my information around me with limited distractions.  I love being at the track, and next to my family, my job and my church, I'd rather be no where else, but it's distraction city, and I just can't assemble my exotic bets very well when I'm there.  I'll be happy for all my racing pals who will be there, but The Turk and lil' Turk have business to attend to.

My efforts begin with just a video recap of the major prep races leading up to next weekend.  For the Breeders' Cup, I usually start at the July 4th holiday and go forward, as Belmont Day back isn't that relevant at this time of the year.  Current form, current form on dirt, and carrying speed at distance are what I'm interested in seeing, including the gallop out, so thank you to the video feeds that focus on that.

I couldn't begin to tell you who I like yet; clearly Shared Belief will be heavily bet, for good reason. Santa Anita Wins:  Bayern X2 (ALW/MSW 56K's),  California Chrome X3 (G1 Santa Anita Derby), Candy Boy X1 (1 Mile MSW 49K), Footbridge X3 (OC's 62K), Majestic Harbor X2 (Hollywood, er Gold Cup G1 28 June), Shared Belief X1 (Awesome Again G1), Big Cazanova (Arg) X1 (1 mile MSW 57K)

Ugly Santa Anita records include Imperative (0 wins in 5 starts, 1 place and 1 show), Moreno (0 wins 6 starts, 3 Place, no Show), Prayers for Relief (0 wins 3 starts, 2 show).

First time at Great Race Place: Cigar Street, Toast of New York, Tonalist, V.E. Day, Zivo.

I haven't had a chance to study the work tabs close enough to have a better handle on my handicapping.  My first blush gut call is as follows:

Shared Belief
California Chrome

My hunt for value will have me considering Bill Mott's Cigar Street, and Bayern for top spot.

I'm really not sure yet what I have yet so I'll take advantage of the time and think a bit more on the issue

Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!

Awesome Again G1:  1 1/8 Fast Dirt; 27 September; SA

Jockey Club Gold Cup G1: 1 1/4 Fast Dirt; 27 September; BEL

Homecoming Classic  $135,000; 1 1/8 Fast Dirt; 27 September; CD

Pennsylvania Derby G2; 1 1/8 Fast Dirt; 20 September; Prx

Woodward Stakes G1:  1 1/8 Fast Dirt; 30 August; SAR

Pacific  Classic G1: 1 1/4 Fake Dirt; 24 August; DMR

Travers Stakes G1: 1 1/4 Fast Dirt; 24 August: SAR

Suburban Handicap G2; 1 1/4 Fast Dirt; 5 July; BEL

No comments: