The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Derby

Reed Palmer/CD

The Turk is not dead, nor did he give up on the horses.  The Turk is working long hours and going to school at the same time, so while handicapping continues, blogging time is at a premium.  Alas, as the semester comes to a close, and The Turk inches 4 credit hours closer to a Masters Level Education, I return to blogging with today's Kentucky Derby and my annual quest at the holy grail of my betting universe, the Super High Five.  The only horse I really developed an emotional attachment to over the Winter was El Kabeir.  I can't explain it, who can explain their race track romances, but the grey/roan Florida bred son of Scat Daddy, just did it for the inner fan in me.  The inner handicapper, the cold, investment banker side of me is not at all saddened that I won't have the burden of emotional attachment clouding my handicapping.   With three scratches already, El Kabeir, International Star and Stanford, Frammento joins the field at very long odds and most likely the first toss of my handicap.   

Enough rambling, let's get it on! 

Race 11 Churchill Downs

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	Dortmund/8	A++
Place	Carpe Diem/2	A+
Show	American Pharoh/18	A+
Exotic	Materiality/3	B+
Also Ran's	Mubtaahij (Ire)/6	B+
	Firing Line/10	B
	Frosted/15	B
	Upstart/19	B-
	Far Right/20	B-
	Danzig Moon/5	B--
	Itsaknockout/13	B--
	Keen Ice/14	C+
	Mr Z/17	C+
	Bolo/9	C+
	War Story/16	C-
	Ocho Ocho Ocho/1	C-
	Tencendur/4	C-
	Frammento/21	D
	Churchill Downs Race 11: Post Time 6:34 ET	The Kentucky Derby G1
	1 1/4 Miles on Dirt	For 3 YOs and Up

The Super Hi-5 can be a very expensive bet.  A $1 seven horse box would cost $2,520.  I would call it a lottery ticket more than anything.  I've won the Super Hi-5 three times in 20 years, but all with singled huge favorites on top and the 10 cent variety of bet that allowed the investment to be much smaller.  I'm at a point in my handicapping life where I get incredible satisfaction for my handicaps and bets that minimize covers. It that vein of thought I propose the following off of my base handicap:

	Win	Place	Show	Exotic 1	Exotic 2
8	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund
2	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem
18	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh
3	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality
6	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij
10	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line
19	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart
15	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted
20	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right

A one dollar bet on this base bet would cost $768.  That's not happening!  I'll play with it but I'll most likely go with something like this:

	Win	Place	Show	Exotic 1	Exotic 2
8	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund
2	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem
18	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh
3	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality
6	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij
10	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line
19	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart
15	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted
20	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right

This one dollar bet is a more reasonable $205.  

This bet is NOT for everyone.  It's something I do knowing that the odds of hitting are very low. That's not my business model friends, but it's the Derby and I like the challenge.

For fun, I'll play some of my favorites with long shots in an exacta.

Enjoy the day, thanks for reading.

Turk Out!