|Danish Dynaformer: Photo by Michael Burns|
Queen's Plate Day. The Canadian version of the Kentucky Derby is the lazy description usually assigned to this race. This is a $1.0 MM restricted to Canada born runners, run on a fair running fake dirt surface, with a big field that on paper always appears slow and unaccomplished. This is not the Kentucky Derby. There are 20 wins total between the 14 entrants, a maiden, three without lasix, a filly, and a large shadow cast by the death in the Plate Trial of Danzig Moon, 5th in the Kentucky Derby, 6th in the Preakness, and a wonderful horse who was coming home before a fatal mid race breakdown. So let's get this straight: Don't be lazy, this is not the Canadian Kentucky Derby, its the oldest race in North America, since 1860, its quirky and uniquely Canadian.
Let's get after it!
|Also Ran's||Conquest Boogaloo/8||B|
|Sweet Grass Creek/6||C|
|Bear at Last/13||D|
|Woodbine Race 11: Post Time 5:38 ET||The Queen's Plate|
|1 1/4 Miles on Fake Dirt||For 3 YOs|
I'll start by saying that this is a terribly difficult race to handicap, even when a big favorite is running. There isn't a prep season like we have for the Triple Crown season, and these horses have spent their winter and springs running all around, so its hard to gage them against each other. Races like the Marine Grade 3 and the Plate Trial, both at WO, are where I typically like to start my handicapping. I'm not putting up the Plate Trial video because of the Danzig Moon breakdown that I can live without seeing again, but four of these runners went in the Marine, won by Shaman Ghost, and five went in the Plate Trial, won by Danish Dynaformer.
I have a group of three as possible in the Win spot: Shaman Ghost/1, Danish Dynaformer/7 and Ami's Flatter/14. I think all three will be bet heavily so none of these represent a great price. Shaman Ghost is a nice off the pace runner with decent Beyer's. (Remember to adjust your thinking, a mid to upper 80's Beyer and a 2:03:45 is most likely what wins this race.) I like him coming off the pace here and I like horses that have some rally in them. Very light chalk.
Danish Dynaformer I reckon will be the post time favorite. A Roger Attfield, Charles Fipke and Patrick Husbands collaboration (Mount Rushmore-like names in Canadian racing), this horse won the Plate Trial by also coming off the pace and he had a nice rally and ate up alot of ground late in a Show finish in the Marine. A win on yielding turf at KEE shows class. Lots to like!
Ami's Flatter, a horse the Turk Clan bets on name alone, as our since deceased cat Ami demanded as much. Breaking from the far outside post, the 14 spot (this race does allow up to 17), the son of Flatter had a great spring on the Triple Crown trail with a 4th in the SF Davis at TAM, a Place in the Tampa Derby, a Show in the Florida Derby, but very flat and dull in his return to WO in the Marine. Trainer Josie Carroll has Contreras up, who left his mount on Danish Dynaformer for this. Loyalty or belief in the horse? I guess we'll find out.
That's three horses, all of which should be chasing and rallying off the pace. Where will that pace come from?
Academic, the lone filly and Woodbine Oaks winner, will be on or very close to the lead. I think she hangs on for a minor prize, that's all I'm prepared to pick. Fillies racing boys get bet hard by punters, don't be surprised by her price at post time.
Rounding out my exotic pool is a grouping of four: Conquest Boogaloo, Billy's Star, Breaking Lucky and Portree, with Milwaukee Mist just outside looking in but could have been included here.
Honestly, I could ramble about these runners but when you look at the PPs they all have warts. Conquest Boogaloo raced to Show in the Plate Trial but was well up the track in the Marine. Trained by Mark Casse with Alan Garcia up.
So, what to do with this Turk?
The betting menu has 20 cent Trifectas/Triactors and 20 cent Supers available. I think I'll do something like:
$1 Tri: 1-7-14 OVER 1-4-5-7-8-14 OVER 1-4-5-7-8-14 =$73 or $14.60 in the 20 cent variety.
A bit pricey. Perhaps I look at a simple box:
$1 Tri Box: 1-4-7-8-14=$60
I think I'll be waiting as long as possible to see where the value is and I'll single someone and build a Tri something like this:
$2 Tri: 1 OVER 4-7-8-14 OVER 4-5-7-8-9-11-14 $50. I like this combo the best. In this I have Shaman Ghost on top.
Almost any handicapping book will tell you bet consistently with your betting capital and try to block out having a good or bad feeling about a race influence you. Build the best handicap you can and bet it. I ignore this advice sometimes and if I'm not feelin' it, I don't bet. What makes me feel better about a race? Data. I like more data on the PP's to guide me. I like video and data, and that is just something I lack here.
Have fun with it yourself and keep it real. If you have a betting problem, seek help. If you have a handicapping problem, seek a better handicapper than this bald hack. My regular readers should give you an indication of the hard core nature of this blog.