Saturday, May 6, 2017

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Derby G1 plus Video Review of Prep Races

Classic Empire: Photo by Rick Samuels with appreciation for its use

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.

Kentucky Derby is such a big, fun, and inclusive day on the race calendar.  Friends and family that never talk horse racing suddenly stop their lives each first Saturday in May for a chance at picking the winner in the fastest two minutes in sports.  Little do they realize how many other great racing days their are in the calendar year, but I don't blame them: The sport is not really run by anyone.  In my own home stake, political appointed hacks make most of the decisions.  The sport is at the mercy of track owners who only care about their small slice of life, the mostly 1% 'ers who own the horses for their own reasons, and that leaves the fans a sport that is poorly promoted, contracted and not grown, and feel good moments squandered. If your looking for answers, you are reading the wrong blog!  This horse racing fan has no magic dust or great ideas other than to repeat over and over again that a single central body should be in charge and make decisions for the best of the sport.

For my readers, you know how little I pay attention to three year old prep races.  To me, it creates an opportunity that comes with some downside.  The opportunity is I am free of the hype.  I didn't even watch the Breeders' Cup Juvenile race that closely, as I dislike 2 YO racing more than I like 3 YO racing.  The names mean almost nothing to me.  When I sat down with the DRF Formulator Past Performances (which I set up to grey out horses not within 1 length of the lead at first call and times given in fractions at the different calls) I had a true beginners min in Zen terms.

Twenty horses: sensory overload.  I miss the days when these Triple Crown babies had 10+ starts by this time.  The more ink the better.  The downside of my stance is you can miss stuff when you pay no attention to media reports.  Little things, important things, like Girvin's quarter crack issues.  So, one qualifier on my position is I will try to read clocker reports (I won't pay for the service even though the best ones are at a premium and deserve to be paid), I'll pay attention to some serious horse player twitter feeds, and I'll avoid Bloodhorse, DRF and ESPN fluff pieces about the connections, a sick kid, etc. etc. etc.  I love sick kids, would give anything to help them, but I'm a sucker for sentimental things like that and sentimentality and handicapping should never mix.

Anyway's, I don't plan on rambling too much today.  I'll get 1000X my normal hits today and all anyone wants to see is if this idiot has the same picks as they do.  Let's start with watching all the major prep races just to get a feel.  The track is expected to be sloppy and the weather not very good. My base handicap downplays the track conditions a bit but its a wildcard.

Arkansas Derby

Florida Derby

UAE Derby

Spiral Stakes

Wood Memorial

Louisiana Derby

Sunland Derby

Bluegrass Stakes

Another thing this handicapper does his best to avoid until he makes his own decisions are Morning Lines.  It's just another handicappers bias.  When you handicap as much as I do, you start to gain an appreciation for the people you think are really good, and the people you wonder what game are they watching.  Out of respect, I don't talk about the good or the bad ones.  The overriding point is make your own morning line based on your own handicapping.  Use the toteboard as a way to see what the betting public thinks.  On a day like today, a lot of dumb money plays the track.  Be smart, place your bets near post time, watch the moves on the tote after the post parade, and be smart:  Why chase favorites on a Win bet, or worse, a Show bet (that was for you Mother Turk).

I cam away picking a group of horses that I will be playing in the Super High Five, my favorite handicapper challenge.  I have 10 horses who have a shot at the Top 5 spots.  If you boxed 10 horses for the Super Hi-Five it would cost for a $2 bet more money than most luxury SUVs.  You have to build a matrix and hope for the best.  Someone outside of this top 10 will screw up the works, but again, that's why its called gambling.

In layers I like Classic Empire, Hence and Irap   followed by Always Dreaming and McCraken, followed by Sonneteer, Irish War Cry, Gormley, Thundersnow and Girvin.

In my expected to screw me up group are the C+ horses led by Gunnevera, Practical Joke and Patch.

I won't bore you too much with the why's and why not's, just a few thoughts:

  • Pioneerof the Nile's son, Classic Empire, was a beast in my favorite prep, the Arkansas Derby.  Trainer Mark Casse has been building towards the pinnacle of racing for sometime. Not sure I like Leparoux up but I'll defer to smarter minds. 
  • I love how the O'Neill/Reddam team were flat at Sunland Derby and came right back in the Blue Grass, so much more relevant again on dirt.  Irap, a Tiznow son, could surprise.  
  • Calumet Farms is finally relevant again.  I wish they still had the devil red silks, but you can't have everything.  I loved Hence at the Sunland Derby and I like him here.
  • Florida Derby winner Always Dreaming is a serious contender.  Don't take my positioning the wrong way.  He could easily win, but I'm contrarian by nature. 
  • Sonneteer is a long shot I like to be moving forward at the 1/8 pole instead of backwards.  He may bring some real value in 5th or 4th spot.  
  • Gunnevera will eat a lot of dirt in his face today with his running style.  My making a gamble that he doesn't have the will to finish strong by the end but the downside risk he makes the top 5.  
There's 20 horses; You can't pick everyone in your exotics, you can't cover and box the field, well you can, it just wouldn't be reasonably financially.  Have fun picking horses.  Just like we say at our Catholic Church, we hope you enjoy it enough to come more than Christmas and Easter, and I hope to see you reading the Turk more often than Derby Day.  

So what is the Turk going to do?  

Have fun
Bet responsibly

I'm going to bet the Pick 3 (Race 10-11-12).  If your new to the sport, these multi-race bets are a fun way to enjoy the track experience and quite frankly you can be pretty successful even as a novice if you cover the favorites and throw a value horse in as well.  Don't waste too much money chasing the big exotics like a Super Hi-5.  The Trifecta and Exacta bets will pay well, especially if a value horse sneaks in .  

If I was betting, here is two versions of a Super High 5 and  Exacta bet.  I'm partial to the $48 exacta and the $134 Super High Five (a power ball ticket with a much smaller pot). 

Turk Out!

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