Welcome Friends to The Turk and The Little Turk Blog.
This past weekend's handicap of the Maryland Million Classic was pretty spot on and produced $695.80 on Trifecta and Exacta wins and unfortunately I left a very winable $627.50 Superfecta in the register.
As I said pre race, I mostly assembled value exactas around my base handicap, focusing on Ghost Bay, Clubman or Southside Warrior for value and Bonus Points taking the wire late.
It was a good read of the field on my part, especially when I announced I was very confused, mostly because of my first attempt to handicap using Timeform US PP's. I will admit I am intrigued by them, but I was very out of my comfort zone and ended up buying a DRF Formulator PP as well. I guess I jacked up the takeout from my own pocket buying two PPs for one race!
Pace/Class/Current Form. That was the decoder ring for this race.
This was a nice handicapping day that provided my mind lots of good race puzzles to solve. I've been on a gambling sabbatical since mid September so the reawakening of my red pen was planned and now it's onto the Breeders' Cup!
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, a race handicapping and gambling venture now in our 9th year with well over 600 blog postings to our credit. I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts on the Maryland Million Classic, a $125,000 Stakes race restricted to horses sired by a Maryland standing stud.
That dapper gentleman pictured is Jim McKay, a legendary broadcaster, horse racing owner and fan. Mr. McKay was inspired by the first Breeders' Cup to hold an event similar in Maryland focusing on Maryland's breeding. It's hard for me to believe (maybe accept) that Jim McKay has been gone from us since 2008. He was a big part of my childhood, a voice that was calming, passionate, credible and likable. It was a different era in sports, perhaps a more naive era, arguably a more enjoyable time, when sports were a release, a purer pleasure. A time when boxing and horse racing were still relevant. The Turk digresses, but at 50 something I think I have enough depth of perspective to say that the commercialization of sports, the politicization of sports, the marginalization of horse racing, have all left me waxing poetic for a bygone time, when men like Jim McKay came into our house to educate, inform and inspire us.
I've been handicapping for a long time. I took red pen to the Form for the first time in 1986, 31 years ago. I've been using DRF Formulator PPs for the past several years but today's race was the first race I've handicapped using Timeform US PPs. Working with both pieces of information was overwhelmingin many ways, perhaps information overload best describes it. I still lack a feel for the speedfigs and the pace adjusted speedfigs of Timeform, but as an information handicapper I was quite impressed. I also liked how I could add notes to each runner, as well as identify where I thought each horse might slot, win-place-show-toss. I'm using the next few months to experiment with tools like Timeform US and Thorograph. I'm a life long learner, and while I have a very comfortable comfort zone with DRF products, I'm committed to looking at my methods and tools as I take my craft to the next level.
My craft? I don't have a clue about today's race. Maybe it was the PP info overload, maybe it's the parity of class and quality in the 12 horse field, but I am not afraid to say I'm a bit stumped. Let's get after this and maybe through typing clarity will grace my thoughts.
Right off the bat I liked how the first quarter pacing was laid out for me before I even had to dive into the PPs. You can also see in the screen capture "My Picks" which saved me scribbling them out later.
I'm backing a closer, Bonus Points, to win. The 3 YO Pletcher trainee has been running in graded stakes company all year, hitting the board three times in 8 starts. I think he will have plenty of speed to target and the one I think he'll be taking late is John Jones. Making a turf to Dirt switch, the 5 YO gelding has 7 wins in 13 Laurel Park starts and is a pretty consistent effort horse.
I think the more interesting group of horses are my next three: Ghost Bay,Clubman and SouthsideWarrior. I think I could have made a good case for any of them to win-place. Ghost Bay is another deep closer whereas Clubman and Southside Warrior should be racing mid-pack and steady. Southside Warrior has declining Beyer Speed Figures over past three races (90/84/75) and while the pace adjusted figs illustrated the same decline, it did not appear as severe. I'm intrigued at the price. Clubman put up a 5f bullet :59 3/5ths on October 13 and has raced well at Laurel, 6 of 8 in the money and 7 of 9 in the money over fast dirt for the 3 YO.
Admirals War Chest and Jerandson round out my potential board hitters. Admirals War Chest will go to the front, but I'm gambling the 6 YO wont be able to stay there and there are some quality closers entered. The two time champ will get sentimental betting interest but I'm dubious.
Jerandson goes blinkers off for Trainer Pletcher (24% wins on 34 blinker off races) but the three year old so far hasn't flashed much speed. I think a very minor prize, if anything.
I think I'll be looking to build Exacta Combinations using some of the longer prices on the board and in my handicap. The weather should be good with no rain so we should assume a fast track. I'm going to use some combinations of 5-2-11-9-12-1-3. I won't box: That's a $1 Exacta for $42. I'll use the toteboard and piece together no more than 8-10 $2 bets for $20 of betting interest with Ghost Bay-Clubman and Southside Warrior mixed with others from the group.
Have fun with it friends and enjoy the Maryland Racing Showcase.
