Friday, January 24, 2020

The Nomination Is In: The Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational G1

Magic Wand (Ire) 
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog. Our blog, now in its thirteenth year, focuses primarily on turf handicapping of the handicap division.   Today's post is written primarily for the The ThoroFan and the Handicapper's Corner.  The good people at The Thorofan have created the only nationwide fan- centric organization in the horse racing community.  God knows this sport needs a few things, like a sense of community and relevance and joining The Thorofan will allow you to find like minded people who enjoy your passions too!

Who doesn't like a good "whodunit", the classic murder mystery.  Handicapping is a lot like that.  You have all the usual suspects, you have backstories, competing motivations, strangers in a strange land, and drama. The Pegasus Turf offers all these things.  There is no real strong suspect, the race is held without race day medications being given (is it really so hard?), and you have a motley crew of veterans and up and comers.   To me, turf racing epitomizes horse racing, a sentiment I know my fellow American's don't really embrace, but as the years go by for me, it's the sort of racing that offers good sized fields and lots and lots of intrigue, the proverbial "whodunit", or maybe more appropriately, who will do it.

I've found recent video on every horse in the field.  I think its important to look closely at the Race Charts in concert with videos.  It's very easy to brush through the PPs and see a horse hasn't won in three starts, but how many beaten lengths was he, what was the trip like, how impressive was the late turn of foot?  The paper tells quite a bit of the story but the video brings it color and sound.


Breeders' Cup Turf G1:  2 November 2019;  1 1/2 Miles Firm SA




Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1: 5 Oct 2019; 1 1/2 Miles Firm BEL





The Fort Lauderdale G2: 14 Dec 2019;  1 1/8 Miles Firm GP




The Sea Biscuit Handicap G2: 30 Nov 2019;   1 1/16 Miles Good Turf  DMR





The Hollywood Derby G1: 30 Nov 2019; 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf  DMR



Hong Kong Cup G1; 8 Dec 2019; 1 1/4 Miles Good Turf' Sha Tin (HK)



Breeders' Cup Mile G1; 2 Nov 2019; 1 Mile Firm Turf  SA



Arlington Million G1; 10 Aug 2019; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf   AP



It appears the weather will be dry.  You can find the scratches and changes along with track conditions here.  I'm handicapping expecting firm turf. 




The mare, Magic Wand (Ire) just jumps off the paper in terms of pure class and ability. Look at the Hong Kong Cup video above and just watch her explosion in the last 1/8 of a mile as she comes out of traffic and surges. $4.1 MM in earnings.  Only 3 wins in 22 turf starts.  Only 1 win in 10 starts at this distance.  Trainer Aiden O'Brien ouch: 0 of 24 starters last rolling year in Graded Stakes NA, 0 of 28 Turf Starters.  With the bloodstock he has access to, that is staggering.  I know its a challenging trip but wow.

I have a group of three after the Mare.  Arklow is first back after Breeders' Cup, a 61-180 day layoff that trainer Cox does well with, 24% winners on 87 tries. 5 of 7 in the money in 2019 as a 5 YO but only one 1 win,  a game Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at 1 1/2 mile.  First GP start.  12 of 24 life time starts ended in Win-Place.  Without Parole (GB) is first back off the Breeders' Cup Mile. The distance seems to be the biggest question for him although his breeding implies he should handle it, he is one of only two here with a Tomlinson Number >400. Chad Brown Trainee put up bullet 5f last week.  No Wins in 3 starts in 2019.  Mo Forza is a wildcard.  4 YO son of Uncle Mo should be faster than he's shown.  Peter Miller's trainee has won four straight.  7 of 9 in the money over turf and the only other +400 Tomlinson Distance Rated Number in the field.

My exotic/show horse group is four deep and of that two I suspect are better than the other two.  Sacred Life (Fr) is 11 of 13 Win-Place finishes lifetime.  Chad Brown trainee.  Game and gritty.  Loses class battle and he's never seen a field like he will today.  Late speed and effort could propel and long tote board odds make me consider him in back half of exacta.  7 YO Zulu Alpha first back from Breeders' Cup Turf.  5 straight 100+ Beyers.  10 of 18 in the money over past two years.  16 of 26 in the money over grass.  Won at this distance here in March 2019.  What you see is what you get.  The same can be said for 7 YO Sadler's Joy.  Trainer Albertrani skipped the Breeders' Cup and found a win in the G3 Red Smith at AQA in late November and now first time back.  18 of 26 in the money lifetime.  Channel Cat is Todd Pletcher's lone entry.  Trainer Pletcher was in a downturn last year around this time winning "only" about 22% of the time.  That has slipped to 10% Graded Stakes wins in 129 starts over the rolling year.  This 5 YO loses class but has enough intangibles to be considered in tickets. 

For better or worse I'm tossing everyone else because you can't cover them all. I could have made a case for Next Shares in the exotic group, and Henley's Joy will get better but the water is deep here. 

So what to do with it?  While it's not sexy, a $1 six horse boxed exacta of 12-2-3-10-11-1 for $30 should make money provided the top two horses on the tote board don't finish 1-2.  Even then, it should still pay about 2/3's the cost of the bet, sop gambling that the order and the value pops favorable may be the uncomplicated play. 

Alternatively, I'm inclined to $1 exacta 12-2-3-10 OVER 12-2-3-10-11-1-4-5 for $28. 

Final Alternative, I'll be watching Arklow closely.  If he's 4-5 to 1 I may single and bet a few horses under him in exacta.  Lots of options.  Arklow may represent the safest Win bet.  Cox is on top of his game and Brown's runners here aren't world beaters. 

I'll be thinking about this right up to post when I get a look at the odds.  A win bet on Mo Forza at the right price isn't out of the question. 

The Turk began his 2020 handicapping challenge, entitled 52 bets in 52 Weeks.  Through the first three weeks of 2020 the ROI sits at 40.6% with winnings of $227 on $162 dollars wagered.  It's a small sample size, plenty of time for the Ol' Turk to screw the pooch.  Last Week I took a shot on a race I knew I should have passed on, the Sunshine Millions Turf.  As you can see, my base handicap was dead on but this was the result the betting public overwhelming picked.  The straight trifecta I handicapped cold paid $3.65 on a $1 bet.  Ugh.  I bet an exacta hoping that someone other than Beautiful Lover would finish in Place.  Close, but ultimately class prevailed.  I turned $10 into $4.60.  The stuff of legends.
















Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!

Saturday, January 18, 2020

The Nomination Is In: The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf $150,000


Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  Today I wanted to be excited about the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf at Gulfstream Park, and I'm not sure excitement is the right adjective.  I'd describe the race as a good young filly, a solid older Mare and a collection of allowance and claimers.  I could have gone to California and bet in the Santa Anita Unusal Heat Turf Classic but I opted for the track I play more often, with horses, trainers and jockey's I'm also more familiar with.

When you place a bet, there are no conditions placed on it.  Sure if there is a late scratch your bet may get tossed, but no one will ask you if you were happy about the field or if you felt good about your bet.  It's neither appropriate nor does anyone care.  It's your sole job as a handicapper to rank the horses in terms of percentage chance of winning and then your sole job as a gambler to decide if there is a bet worth constructing.  Don't be seduced by the talk of "action bets" that many a horse player talk about in their books.  Go buy a lottery ticket if you need action.  Is the race worth betting?  I can answer that question from my perspective, you need to be able to answer it for yourself.  I've spoke of the opportunity costs of racing many times.  Let's assume you aren't independently wealthy for a moment.  Your disposable income is valuable, yes?  I want to make 25% on my money.  For every $100 I wager I want to make $125.  Yeah, I can make 2% in a savings account, 5% on average in equities, but I want 25%.  Why?  Because I'm going to lose, its inevitable.  Currently in 2020 I am I above that mark in my 52 Bets in 52 Weeks series, but I will lose.  Is there a bet worth making here?  Lets get after it.





You'll find updated scratches and changes and track condition here.  Assume Firm Turf.  Raki by the way is carrying 119 not 118.

I have 71.4% chance of Starship Jubilee or Beautiful Lover winning.  That's an enormous percentage of a turf 8 horse field Win odds.

I really don't see how one or both of them will finish worse than Place.  Of the remaining runners I see as having a chance to be in the money, I only have 16.8% chance of winning between Vow to Recover and Bienville Station.  Four Runners, 88.2% of the win odds.

Therein lies the opportunity.  You'll notice I saw the race about the same as the DRF handicapper and his morning line, which I remind you I have disdain for most Morning Lines and only look at them AFTER I set my fair odds and base handicap.  Can someone surprise at a good price?  Of course, it's horse racing, but is it likely?  I don't see it all.  Watch the tote board closely to see if there is any movement as post time approaches.  Only horse players are wagering this time of year, they know smart from dumb money. 

So what to do with this?  I'm going to single 7-1 to Win with 7-1-11-8 to Place, a $2 bet for $12.    The worst case scenario is they go Win-Place but I won't lose to much under that scenario.  The best case is one of them slips to Show or worse.  The absolute worst case is somehow both lose and I miss an opportunity for a home run.  I don't see it.

Pretty Simple bet, low risk, low reward.

Enjoy the racing.  Turk Out!

Sunday, January 12, 2020

Post Race Results for the Marshua's River Stakes and a Week 2 Update on the 52 Bets for the 52 Weeks of 2020 Series

Welcome Friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  Whenever I see images like the one here, I think of the emotions of the horse player.  When I use to be a more frequent, albeit never irresponsible,  gambler, I would ride that roller coaster of emotion race to race, the highs, the lows, the incredulity, the shame, the guilt, the euphoria, wash, rinse repeat.  That's the game.

I'm not going to tell you people don't make a living a professional gamblers, I know a few, but I am going to tell you, that's no way to live.  It's straining, it's stressful, its downright soul crushing to ride that wave and risk it all, easier when its just you, harder when a little one depends on you for everything.  The Turk took money out of the game years ago.  I have a pot, but my race track investments are limited.  I love to handicap, but it's been many years since I gambled with any materiality.    I work a job that requires seriousness and professionalism, and above all else, fiduciary integrity.  Nothing shouts louder "don't tryst me with money" than being the office horse player.  The real reason I went cold turkey is I found I just enjoyed the game more without the stress of money, and I kept statistics.  Stats, that dirty little word that gives quantifiable data to you about how the game is really treating you.  Sometimes people will ask The 'Ol Turk why the Morning Line odds don't add up to 100%.  These aren't horse players mind you, just normal people.  The easiest and most honest answer for me is that the 30% or so above 100% those odds add up to is the the difference between the game making a living or you making a living.  The takeout is just too damn high and it leaves very little room for error in gambling.  With the takeout, and Stats, I realized I was skilled enough as a handicapper to carve out a positive ROI, but I had to play and play alot.  Not for me.  So I used the stats to hone in on where my best ROI came from.  It was obvious to me, the low hanging fruit, wasn't what I was good at, but what I was taking a killing on.  I was downright atrocious on the Triple Crown prep races and even worse on 2 YOs.  I cut those races out of my betting palate.  Next, I realized I was really bad on 1 1/2 mile distances any surface as well as 6.5F or less any surfaces.  I cut those out.  I was really poor at a few tracks and eliminated those.  The exercise showed me what I was good at handicapping, but the corollary was I found it also showed me what about horse racing I liked the most: 4 YO and Up, primarily Turf racing.  My ROI is pretty good, good enough to bet consistently, not good enough to bet Little Turk's tuition.

I conceived this year's blog theme to be 52 Bets in 52 Weeks, a small sample size of what a handicapper with over 35 years experience can do and document it, good bad or ugly.  So far so good as both week's Base Handicaps produced winning results.  While I did not place an actual bet in Week 1, I did yesterday.  Why?  I thought the race was an honest to goodness no brainer.  7 horse field, no scratches, three horse were given no chance by me nor did they get a chance on the tote board.  The only downside? The top four were all bet down pretty hard, especially the winner. With a little luck the Win-Place are reversed and the 4-1 finishes over the 2-1, but that's OK.  I bet and bet big when I see no brainer's, $10 exacta for $120.  Now, my eye after 35 years doing this will or may be different than yours, so in the words of Han Solo, don't get cocky kid and start to see no brainer's everywhere.

Through two Weeks, The Turk has won $71.20 net of my total investment of $152 with a return on investment of 136%.  Don't get use to it.  I'm still predicting that I'll take a big pile of twenty's and turn it into a smaller pile of twenty's when 2020 is concluded, but also remember the sample size of  52 is pretty small.  Actual bets will always be supported by records and when I don't make actual bets we will use the theoretical ones made in the Blog Post as well a  $2 Exacta based on my Base Handicap described in the footnotes of my chart below.

















The 'Ol Turk's Twin Spire Account



I'll be back this week with more Turf running from the handicap division.  Turk out!











Friday, January 10, 2020

The Nomination Is In: The Marshua's River G3 at Gulfstream Park


Andina Del Sur (Chestnut Mare) : Elsa Lorieul Photo Credit

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

Like many things in life, horse racing is as divided into cliques and social groupings.  I belong to what people a Tout.

tout1
/tout/
verb
  1. 1.
    attempt to sell (something), typically by pestering people in an aggressive or bold manner.
    "Jim was touting his wares"

  1. 2.
    NORTH AMERICAN
    offer racing tips for a share of any resulting winnings.
noun
  1. 1.
    a person soliciting custom or business, typically in an aggressive or bold manner.





  2. 2.
    NORTH AMERICAN
    a person who offers racing tips for a share of any resulting winnings.



While I'm not a big fan of being called a "tout" it closely fits the definition per the Oxford Dictionary.  The key difference? I'm not offering advice for part of the winnings.  I'm not a Pink, Yellow Sheet, etc etc.  I offer my handicaps and bet constructions on random races for pure pleasure and enjoyment. Call me a tout if you like, but I'd prefer horse racing fan and hack handicapper!

Lets get after this race today, a 1 1/16 Mile turf event at Gulfstream for 4 YO and up Fillies and Mares.







The weather at Gulfstream for Friday and Saturday seems pretty dry.  I'd expect firm turf.  On Friday Morning the turf was listed as Firm.  You'll find Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions here.

Lets start as always with a little applicable video handicapping.

29 Nov 2019; AQA. 1 1/16 Miles good Turf. Forever Together $150K

Get a look at Andina Del Sur and Sweet Bye and Bye




14 December 2019; GP 1 Mile firm Turf. My Charmer $100K

Very solid race from deep traffic for Munchkin Money for Show.



19 December 2019; GP 1 Mile good Turf.  OC25k.

Solid run by Malkia for owner/trainer Laura Cazares




I think the wild card is Magic Star.  On a class basis, she wins before the race begins.  4 YO daughter of Scat Daddy.  Trained by Chad Brown with I Ortiz Jr. Up, a 29% win combo at GP.  Last raced  26 October,. Brown wins 23% off 61-180 day layoffs. Only third start of her career but if she can figure it out this year, wow what upside.  She'll need to show real maturity with this group.

Can't say I had very different feelings than the morning line, as you can see I most tracked similar thoughts with possible exception of being less bullish on Sweet Bye and Bye and Maroubra (Fr).

I'm expecting a workmanlike Andina Del Sur to be workmanlike  Nothing fancy for the 5 YO Giant's Causeway, 11 of 17 in the money on Turf, 5 of 8 in the money lifetime at the distance, zero wins in five GP starts, ouch, but she's has 4 of 5 in the money at GP.

I like Munchkin Money and her resilience.  7 YO trained by Clement isn't the fastest or the classiest, but a nice late turn of foot.  2 wins in 3 GP starts, the NY bred should be in the money.

Sweet Bye and Bye is productive: 5 of 6 in the money 2019, 11 of 13 in the money lifetime, but tossing two off the turf dirt affairs,. this mare finishes 11 of 11 in the money.  7 of 7 in the money over turf. 5-2 Morning Line, I'm not sure I am that impressed but she's good.  Her and Adina Del Sur will be battling in third straight race.  Trainer Klesaris is winless in two Graded Stakes in past rolling year.

I most likely will look at a few Exacta's;  a 5-7-3-4 $2 exacta is worth $24, too rich really for a budget gambler looking for value.  Something possibly like 4-5 OVER 2-3-4-5-7 $2 exacta for $16 might be my taste, or Adina Del Sur and Sweet Bye and Bye boxed and over Magic Star and Munchkin Money.

This is the 2nd of my 52 Bets for 2020 Series.  Last week's race and blog entry was The San Gabriel at Santa Anita.



The base handicap was pretty darn good.  The interesting thing was how little Desert Stone was respected on the tote board, going off 7-1, 5th best in the field of 7.

I swung for the fences a bit by placing Overdue on top of a win bet and exacta. That was a $16 overall losing bet.  Betting my Base Handicap would have been a much better exercise as that returned $44.20 on a $2/$16 bet.







Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Friday, January 3, 2020

The Nomination Is In: The San Gabriel G2 at Santa Anita


Cleopatra's Strike (Benoit Photo)
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, now in our 13th calendar year of providing handicapping and bet construction to people who never asked for it.

I generally take a handicappers holiday from Breeders' Cup until sometime in mid March each year, as I'm not much of a 'Road to the Kentucky Derby' fella anyway.  I like the turf runners and I like the 4 year old and up group.  All that said and I took what was essentially a handicappers holiday that lasted the better part of a year.  This sport, to anyone who plays it, wears you down.  From the appalling number of racetrack fatalities to the greed and actions of a few who prioritize their own profits over the livelihood of the sport in general (I'm looking at you CDI), it wears me down.  I love the horses, I love the backside and the trainers and connections to feed this sport its life, and ultimately, I love to analyze the races and occasionally wager on my skill at doing this.  As long as there is horse racing, and as long as I'm breathing, there will be a Turk handicapping and blogging, and yes, that's a threat.

Let's kick off 2020 with a group of four year old and older runners over a route of grass, The San Gabriel at Santa Anita.






Early season you end up with a mix of horses in very different places in their condition.  That creates uncertainty as to what the trainers intentions are in this race, as you have to ask is this a 2nd effort off a freshening and the season is ready to go or is the trainer shaking some dust off and is content with using the race as a glorified workout.  It might be a Grade 2 race but you also have to really question, are these grade 2 quality turf runners or a hodgepodge of available legs to fill out an early January card.  There is a reason I'm normally slumbering at this time of the year, too much uncertainty in the horses and trainer's intent.

There is only one real video I'm interested in watching prior to analyzing, the 1 1/2 mile Hollywood Turf Cup G2 at Del Mar in early December.  The race had a solid field, much better than here and contained the 2-3-4 horse from today's field.


1 Dec 2019 Del Mar; 1 1/2 Mile Firm Turf Hollywood Turf Cup G2



Ok I lied, one more video....Majestic Eagle willingly yet just out of the money.

30 November 2019 Del Mar; 1 1/16 Good Turf Seabiscuit Handicap G2



I can't say I'm enamored with the field or the betting potential of this race.  I like to complete the handicap, the base handicap, and then consider what would make this a bet worth making.  What is a "bet worth making?"  If you are in this game you have learned magic over time, a trick called "how to turn a big pile of money into a smaller pile of money."  That's clearly a magic trick you want to avoid.  What is your "Opportunity Cost?"  Financial types describe opportunity cost as the loss of potential gains from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen.   Without an MBA, this simply means if I invest in Race 8 at SA and I lose my investment, what did I lose by not investing in Race 8 at Gulfstream or Fair Grounds? Most people are not betting (investing) the way most of the betting advice books are written:  Bet same amounts or percentage of your betting capital consistently across all the races  over time.  Most bettors in my opinion are on again/off again.  Speaking for myself, I bet just a handful of races per week and I look at the opportunities that present themselves and try to find the opportunity that represents the best chance to make the most money.  When I say this race isn't worth betting I mean I have no real overlays of significance and I expect the betting public to see the race exactly as I do.  You can see in the Column labeled ML or Morning Line, I pretty much have them ranked per Morning Line.  (I handicap and set my base handicap BEFORE I look at Morning Lines.  I find that the ML adds a bias to my thinking that I don't want to have.  That's a discussion for another day.) Where will the value come from?  It will come from a) not over betting and b) a bit of a price in the mix. 

As always watch the turf conditions and the scratches and changes, and by all means don't rush in a bet, study the tote board and see where the public is pegging a horse.  Funny things happen at the race track and lines can move and suddenly an overlay presents itself.

From a base handicap perspective I like Cleopatra's Strike.  The 7 YO gelded son of Smart Strike is Canadian bred and trained by Phillip D'Amato.  Cutting back in distance,, 2nd off a layoff.  A solid G2 win at SA at 1 1/4 in late September.  2 of 2 in the money at SA, 10 of 18 in the money lifetime on Turf and 3 of 4 in the money as a 6 YO. 

I like Desert Stone (Ire) a bit more than Majestic Eagle but it's a tiny bit.  Desert Stone is racing in 8th straight graded stakes with one place and two shows.  5 of 8 in the money at SA, 6 of 15 in the money over turf with a low Tomlinson of 273.  1 win in 4 starts at the distance.  The trainer Baltas with 29% off +180 day layoff (off since late May 2019).  Late turn of foot good and stretching out from normal mile distance.  I suspect he may drop to 5-1 from 3-1 ML.  Majestic Eagle also off 45-180 day layoff, something Trainer Drysdale wins only 6% of the time.  5 Places in 10 SA starts.  8 of 17 Win-Places over turf lifetime.  33% winner in 6 starts at distance.  Drysdale/Bejarano 40% winners at SA in a small sample size.

Overdue and Chosen Vessel represent possibly the best value you will find on the board.  Overdue is 4 YO gelding with Mike Smith up for trainer D'Amato.  Cutting back from 1 1/2 miles his last win was at this distance at this track in early October.  6-1 ML, could slip to 7 or 8 to 1.  Class test.    Chosen Vessel has similar class issue. First start at the distance.  Trainer Dollase winless last calendar year in graded stakes, trying only 3 times.  Flat running style. 

I'm discounting Acker completly.  North County Guy I could easily lump in with Overdue and Chosen Vessel BUT you can't cover everybody. 

My initial thoughts is to place a $10 win bet on Overdue as well as bet Overdue above Cleopatra's Strike, Desert Stone and Majestic Eagle, a $2 Exacta for $6.  $16 total investment.

We'll see how I feel after watching the tote board tomorrow.  This only works if I'm getting better value than 6-1  on Overdue

Have fun friends, Turk Out!