The Nomination Is In: The Whitney G1 at Saratoga

Welcome, Friends, to The Turk, a horse racing blog celebrating its 19th year of not being read.  

My primary focus in horse racing is Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. That said, I handicapped Dirt racing for the better part of 35 years before I settled on Turf as my niche.  

This year I've been rather quiet with my blog, not that I'm quitting; I'll never truly give up my love of the races and blogging, but every few years I take a pause.  Whenever I return to racing from these "handicapper holidays," I return a bit rusty, but with a renewed sense of enjoyment.  I'm currently on one of these handicapper holidays, but the good people at The Thorofan asked me to share my thoughts on a very loaded Whitney field, and how could I refuse?    

Loaded.  Career Earnings:  Magnitude: $9.6 MM.  White Abarrio: $8.6 MM.  Sovereignty: $6.3 MM. Nitrogen: $2.7 M.  Baeza: $2.2 MM.  Antiquarian and Tiztastic each other: $1.2 MM.  Only one horse in the field below one million in career earnings, 4 YO Forged Steel, sits at $0.4 MM.  

This isn't the sort of race that requires a lot of hand-wringing as a handicapper.  Multiple potential winners exist in this field.  Only one question comes to mind when I look at this field:  Can I find value compelling enough to bet? 

I'm not the sort of horse player that plays for "action"; I no-bet many more races than I actually bet.  What sort of horse player are you?  If you do this long enough, if you invest enough of your hard-earned investment capital into this sport, you have to be able to answer that question.  We've seen so many good players die off, age out, or simply jump to other sports books.  It's a craft; please work at it and think about your strengths and weaknesses. I tend to get a bit nerdy with my analysis, but there are many ways to go about picking winners. 

As I said, I'm a bit rusty, but this race as I will explain (if it is not obvious) is less handicapping and more bet construction.  Win bets with a few horses down the tote board might be worth the investment.  Exacta bets? I would have liked to see a few more 8-to-10-to-1 closers to couple with a speed horse, but you have to work with what you got.  Let's build a base handicap first and then jump to bet construction.

Let's get after it!

First, some videos of interest.

While it was a smaller field, and the track was off a bit, The Stephen Foster G1 might be a good example of how The Whitney will unfold:  Magnitude was hustled out of the gate and took the rail.  White Abbario pressed.  Sovereignty and Baeza laid back and came late, but Magnitude really impressed with a late turn of foot.  

27 June 2026:  CD:  The Stephen Foster Handicap G1;  1 1/8 Miles on Dirt slop.  

4 July 2026: SAR: The Suburban G2; 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt.

5 June 2026: SAR: The Ogden Phipps G1 (F); 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt

I built this chart to try and capture current form on these big Beyers (Dirt Starts only).  The mean is denoted by the vertical tick line, and circles in green are the last three races, and circles in red are older efforts.  I can't say I'm a fan of the idea that Nitrogen is entered here. She clearly loves Saratoga, 3 for 3 with three Graded Stakes wins, two Grade 1s,  including the prestigious Alabama.  Still, these are pretty deep waters for her.  Ortiz jumps off for Magnitude and Velazquez is up. 

This next chart visualizes the Timeform US Early to Late Pace figures.  It's important to combine this with the eye test, with Magnitude's late speed in The Stephen Foster just as up to the task as the others.  What throws off a horse like Magnitude?  Winning by 9  in the Risen Star and Iowa Derby doesn't help.  Coasting.  Sovereignty cracking to White Abarrio in the Oaklawn Handicap and getting toasted by Baeza up the stretch in the Stephen Foster belies his late speed impregnability.  

Numbers/Figs + Eye Test + Running Lines/Call Positions is the proper way to interpret these athletes.  

If I had to guess, I'd say the track will be Fast by post time, but some heavy rains are possible Friday.  Check here for track condition/scratches and changes.  For as inefficient as I think of NYS government, NYRA is a pretty well-run website.  

I'm really much more interested as a fan of the sport than as a horseplayer.   If you look at my chart above, you'll see the morning lines add up to 131%.   Two things drive the excess. The first is takeout: New York win pools hold back roughly 16%, so even the final odds on the board will sum to about 119%, not 100%. Pari-mutuel odds are computed after the track's cut comes out of the pool, so they can never sum to 100% by construction. The second is that the linemaker adds cushion on top: he's projecting how the money will fall, and rounding to standard increments (nobody posts 7.3-1), which pushes the total higher still.

If the Turk had more people and access to streaming API data, he'd auto-populate that chart with a column that compared the Adjusted Morning Line to the Fair Odds to the Actual Betting Odds.  Until the powers that be in horse racing stop overcharging for data streams, that won't happen, and it's not worth the effort to do for the blog, but I absolutely do it at the track.  I literally just sit there right up until post, comparing my fair line to betting odds.  That's what you need to do to find value!

Worth noting, Tiztastic at 1.0% and Forged Steel at 2.0% imply 100-1 and 48-1. In a field this small, with no first-time starters and every runner graded-stakes placed, almost nothing is truly a 1% chance. A bad trip for three horses ahead of you gets a live longshot into the picture more often than that. Squeezing the tail is also what funds the top-heavy numbers: Turk's top three combine for 84.1% (win odds) against the public's 63.2%. While I don't disagree and know what I did with the fair odds,  I just don't feel the need to take into account the 3 times in one hundred that one of those two horses would run and win this race in a simulation.  

If you're really nerdy, I take some shortcuts with my Turk Fair Line that I've never really explained. Let's explore the math.  

The Turk takes the Morning Line and creates an Adjusted Morning Line, which proportions each horse to fit within a 0-100% scale.  There are other ways to do this.

• Turk's Adjusted ML Method: Proportional takes the same percentage off everyone — 23.7% of each horse's raw number. Simple, always valid, and it's what most people use.

• Additive takes the same number of points off everyone: 3.89 each (31.13/8). But the problem is, Tiztastic goes negative, which is why nobody uses it on a 131% line with a long tail of marginally poor runners. 

• Power solves for the exponent k that makes the total hit 100.  In this example,  k = 1.173. Because raising a small number to a power above 1 shrinks it harder than a large one, the tail absorbs more of the vig. Tiztastic goes from 39-1 under your method to 55-1.

• Shin (Professor Hyun Song Shin- for another Turk rambling day) models the line as containing some fraction of informed money — z = 4.84% here — and backs that out. It hits the tail hardest of all: Tiztastic at 75-1.

Power and Shin are better suited for horse racing because of the favorite–longshot bias.  Bettors systematically overbet longshots and underbet favorites, so a longshot's posted price carries more of the margin than a favorite's. Both methods capture that.  

Proportional (what the Turk does) assumes the margin is spread evenly, which the empirical record says it isn't.

Proportional makes longshots look more likely than the public really thinks. The Turk's adjusted column says the public gives Tiztastic 2.46%; Shin says the public's real opinion will be closer to 1.3%. 

How I adjust for this, and where I say I'm cutting corners, is when I buold my Fair Line odds table and apply a Shin-like adjustment mentally (again, the back office of monkeys is just me), so the 1.0% on Tiztastic isn't as far off the public as Proportional suggests.  

This goes both ways, as Turk's fair line 33.3% on Magnitude looked like a big edge over the adjusted 27.24%. Against Power 29.88%, the edge shrinks by a third.

Ultimately, all that really matters is what the public thinks of the horses on the tote board, and one factor that is making it harder for the little horse player to look at these odds against the tote board is how the tote board can move so rapidly through Computer-assisted wagering (CAW).

Unless you're under a rock, a handful of high-volume teams get access to a direct data feed (which the Turk and any other smaller bettor can't get) from the tote system and place enormous bets through automated systems in the final seconds before the gates open. Because pari-mutuel odds are just a function of how the money is distributed in the pool, a large late injection recalculates everything — and by the time the new odds display, the race is already running. You bet a horse at 8-1 and watch him finish at 9-2, all the while these whale teams are getting huge wage rebates.  It's just of a number of factors that are making it harder for Joe Horseplayer to scratch out positive returns.  

Anyway, I think I digressed.  

I like Sovereignty at Saratoga, but I like him at Classic distance more than this.  I think Magnitude will take the lead early. Will he get pressured early? Just thinking about the trainers for a moment.

Asmussen's Magnitude stablemate, Tiztastic,  will only harass early if Magnitude isn't in the lead, but he's really shown no ability to press early.  Mott's Baeza and Sovereignty won't show each other any quarter.  Joesph perhaps will press Forged Steel hard into Magnitude early and keep White Abarrio pressing for his opportunity.  Same owners makes that decision easier for the conditioner. 

It's important to remember we aren't running this race as a Monte Carlo simulation, over and over again within a computer.  

I'm going to box Antiquarian who trained very sharp at Saratoga for Pletcher last week, Baeza and Magnitude, a 3 horse, $2 bet for $12.  If Baeza or Antiquarian can somehow win and Magnitude in Place, there's value worth hunting.  

Why Antiquarian? Why not.  I liked him better than the filly, better than White Abarrio.  This is more about value and looking for slightly improbable than betting highly probable chalk.  

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Gamely Grade 1 at Santa Anita

 

Rashmi- Benoit Photo

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 19th season of Horse Racing Handicapping, where we have (almost) exclusively handicapped Turf Racing for (mostly) Four year old's and Up over (generally) Routes of Grass up to the Classic Distance.  How is that for a niche blog POV writing about a niche sport in decline?  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today.

19 Seasons of Blogging.  I'm not sure if that is an accomplishment or a sad indictment on my life's choices.  I thought Horse Racing was in decline culturally in 2007, and in hindsight the loss of racetracks and the drop in handle should have made it obvious what was coming.  

The statistics are sobering.  There are years when I wonder why I do what I do, but the fact is, I love the animals.  The people, some I like, most I don't, but these equine athletes are who I am loyal to and who I love.   They were bred to run, and while I mourn the race track deaths, without racing, these animals wouldn't be bred at all.  

Where are we now? Total handle on US Thoroughbred racing in 2025 was $11 billion — a sobering number when you put it next to when I started in 2007. 

Here's the big picture:

• 2003 peak: $15.2 billion
• 2007: $14.7 billion
• 2025: $11.0 billion

When factoring in inflation, betting handle has fallen about 57% over the last 22 years. 2025 marked the sixth time in the last seven years that handle has fallen. 

The number of US races fell below 30,000 for the first time since the mid-1950s.

There are many reasons for this, with Computer Assisted Wagering near the top of my list as a player, plus shortsighted and foolish human leadership.  

The one bright spot: bettors wagered more per race than any year in history besides the Covid year of 2020 — so the people still playing are betting more, there are just far fewer of them.

To me, the bigger issue is the loss of racetracks.  While we still have most of the major tracks, they are supported by smaller tracks all over the country, and those are disappearing.  No fewer than 49 racetracks have closed since 2000, and at least a dozen of those closures have come since Covid in 2020 alone. I never thought in my lifetime we'd see Aqueduct, Arlington Park, Hialeah, Hollywood Park and Golden Gate Fields all gone, and that's just to name a few.  

Arlington Park in Illinois after 94 years, Golden Gate Fields in California after 83 years, and Freehold Raceway in New Jersey after 171 years. On the West Coast, Hollywood Park closed in 2013 after 75 years and Bay Meadows closed in 2008 after 74 years.

Since 2000, 41 racetracks permanently closed, with 26 of those within the last 10 years. In contrast, only 2 new racetracks with casinos opened. 

The blunt bottom line: the industry has lost roughly one track every five months for 25 years straight, with almost nothing opening to replace them. Kentucky is essentially the last island of health in the sport, propped up by casino and Historical Horse Racing money, while the rest of the country contracts. 

Combined with the handle data — $15.2 billion in 2003 down to $11 billion in 2025 — it paints a picture of an industry that has lost nearly half its infrastructure and about 30% of its wagering base in a single generation.

When I was growing up in the late 1970's and early 1980's, Formula One, Horse Racing and Heavy Weight Boxing were my favorite sports.  I read the sports page of the newspaper and I was a Sports Illustrated subscription holder and I watched ABC Wide World of Sports.  All three of those sports were headed for the dustbin of irrelevancy, but Formula One figured it out and it's booming, while Boxing is a shell of itself and horse racing infighting and lack of real leadership is killing the sport before our eyes.  

F1 Values (USD)

But I digress, you came to maybe read about 3 year old and up Fillies and Mares in the Grade 1 Comely and I'm writing the obituary of horse racing.  It may die, but not today! Lets get after it. 

Early to Late TIMEFORM PACE

The chart above is a Left to Right visualization of the early speed to the closing speed. Thought Process is the most consistent Early Speed, Rashmi with a small sample size is fastest flat runner while Take a Breath and Hang the Moon are Deep closers.  

The chart above counts the number of 20-26 and 2025 races only.  The Standard Deviation is a way of implied consistent efforts.  In a small sample size Rashmi has three Beyer Speed Figures of very similar outcomes, raced respectively at 1 Mile on Firm Turf at Santa Anita.  She own 2 of the 4 90+ Beyer Speed Figs recorded since 2025 by this group.  

It's getting harder as the years go on to find video on all the races.  Apologies, Fan Duel mostly uploads Top of the Stretch to the Wire video, but that said, I found the last race for every runner in the field which is unusual.  

25 April 2026: Santa Anita: The Royal Heroine G3; 1 Mile  Firm Turf; Take a Breath (Win), May Day Ready (Place 1/2 back)

12 April 2026: Keeneland: Allowance N1X $97K; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf; Vronti (GB) (Win by 1/2 length)

28 March 2026; Gulfstream Park: Sand Springs Lane $150K; 1 1/16 Firm Turf ; Hang the Moon (Place-neck)

28 March 2026; Santa Anita: The Wilshire G3; 1 Mile on Firm Turf; Rashmi (Win by 2 3/4)

15 March 2026 Santa Anita:  Santa Ana Stakes G3; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf.  Take A Breath(W), Public Assembly (1st to 4th last furlong)

28 February 2026: Santa Anita: The Buena Vista G2; 1 Mile  Firm Turf; Thought Process (Win by 2)

Is that enough information for you?  It's too much for one race, but I like to practice like I play.   I handicap a lot of races that I don't play, I handicap the same way, with consistent data analysis, and when I do play, my ROI on Turf, at Distance, with older runners, is consistently good.  Could I make a living doing this?  No.  Can I have fun when I do occasionally bet money, absolutely!

I'll come back and update the chart at my blog when they publish the Morning Lines.  I don't use Morning Lines for handicapping but I like them for reference against my fair odds.  

I suspect Thought Process will be the betting public pick.  I'm not sure he shouldn't be, but I'm looking at value and I'll be leaving him out of the exacta at my own peril, at best adding him to Place.  Rashmi, the next great Augustin Stable winner for owner and Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member George Strawbridge Jr, is my pick.  

It's early, lots of Turf racing to go in 2026, and for me, now is about figuring out who's a contender and who's a pretender. The time for wagering comes when I've seen a few races from each of these horses to know what we have on our hands.

Have fun friends, Turk Out.

Breeders' Cup Turf: Handicapping Post Mortem

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I write about mostly older horses running routes over grass, and from that I assemble exacta bets.  I've been a handicapper since the mid 1980's and a horse racing blogger since 2008.  

I didn't think Ethical Diamond had a chance.  

Nothing here screams it:  a Maiden at start of 5 YO campaign.  His jockey jumped to 2X Turf Winner Rebel's Romance.  

Nothing here screams winner:  Most of his $521K in earnings from 2025 after a brutal 2024 (someone believed in him!). The race chart implies pressing and not deep closer.  Only 1/5 of his earnings from this distance.  

Breeders' Cup Turf G1: 1 1/2 Miles for 3 YO and Up

14 September 2025;  Curragh; Irish Leger G1; 

Amiloc (GB) Place finish for 3 YO gelding.  6 of 6 Lifetime Exacta

27 September 2025; Aqueduct; Turf Classic G1;

El Cordobes (Ire) (Show 3 3/4 back), Rebel Red (GB) (5th 7 3/4 back), Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Win 3 1/2 in front ), Redistricting (GB) (Place 3 1/2 back)

23 August 2025; York (GB); Ebor Handicap Stakes  Class 2; 

Ethical Diamond (Ire) (Win by 2 1/2)

27 September 2025; Santa Anita; John Henry Turf Championship G1; 

Gold Phoenix (Ire) (Win by 1 1/4 in front) 

7 September 2025; Baden-Baden (Ger); Grosser Preis von Baden G1;

Goliath (Ger) (Win by 1 1/4 lengths)

4 October 2025; Aqueduct; Jockey Club Derby Invitational G2;

Hill Road (Show 2 1/2 lengths back)

5 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe G1; 

Minnie Hauk (Ire) (Place by a head)

4 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix Dollar G2; 

Rashabar (Ire) (4th- 4 lengths back- (French Only Video-Green, Blue Sleeves, Green Dots on White #9 horse)

4 October 2025; Woodbine; Canadian International G1; 

Silawi (Ire) (Win by a nose), Tawny Port (Place by a nose)

30 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Nashville Derby G3

Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) (Win by a head), Hill Road (Show 3 3/4 lengths back)

The Breeders Cup Turf   G1:  1 1/2 Miles on the Del Mar Turf Course, for 3 YOs and Up

What I said Prerace:

I was going to call this an interesting field, and then I thought about it, and if you removed Minnie Hauk (Ire) and Rebel's Romance (Ire) from the field, then it would be a very interesting American Grade 1 turf race.  Including them makes this a top heavy race with a fairly mediocre bottom of the field, especially at the outside posts.  The filly, Minnie Hauk (Ire), as morning line favorite at 8-5 I didn't think was appropriate.  Yes she carries 7 less pounds than Rebel's Romance but it's her 8th start, the furthest she's traveled before coming to Del Mar was Ireland to France,  a flight too short to pass out complimentary beverages. At 3 YO, if this filly wins it will be shocking and historic.  Yes she can, I don't think it will happen.  But it's not exactly like Rebel's Romance winning will provide value. The two of them combined for 51.5% of the adjusted Morning Line and 53.6% of Turk's Fair Odds.  I think we will have to get creative with the Betting Structure to realize value.

1.  Have Rebel's Romance (Ire) or Minnie Hauk (Ire) first with a few logical late runners in Place.

2. Swing for the Fence:  Put a bunch of Horses (my non-RED) in Win Spot and put both Minnie Hauk and Rebel's Romance in Place Spot.  

 I priced out both at $24 Dollar Options:

$2 Exacta:  1-8 OVER 2-10-4-3-9-6 for $24

OR

$2 Exacta 2-10-4-3-9-6 OVER 1-8

I'm not wasting money on the most logical, a 1-8 Boxed finish.  

Exacta History for 2024-2025

Tomlinson Analysis for Turf and Distance:

The Race Replay

 

Ethical Diamond's run in the visualization below is just as impressive as what my eyes saw.  Paying $282 on a $2 exacta with 2-1 Rebel's Romance, it showed the strategy I had of putting the favorites in Place and a bunch of long shots in Win Spot was sound, I just picked the wrong long shot.  Honestly, I didn't see this coming and sometimes you can complete the post mortem and come away with no other lesson except you can't win them all!

Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The River City Handicap G3 at Churchill Downs

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.  "Specialize" is not how I feel this week, as I had Ethical Diamond at something like 3% chance to win the Breeders' Cup Turf.  I'd love to tell you how I thought highly of him and he was my wise guy pick, yada, yada, yada, but no.  I don't think I would have picked that horse, considering the field he was in, to finish in my exacta unless I boxed the whole field.  Beware the handicapper and bet constructor who can't admit he was wrong.  I'm going to diagnose both my handicap, pre race analysis and the video in a longer post tomorrow, just because I like pain and I also like to try to learn.  The only sign was improving Timeforms, but in that field, at his post draw, I still don't see it.  Anyways, I'll stop grumbling.

Turf racing is over for the year.  Yes I know there are some races, but for all legitimate purposes, it's done.  When you like turf racing, and you like older horses, this time of the year is slow and slim pickings, but the good people at The Thorofan asked me (they didn't read my Breeders' Cup debacle....shhh, or they won't invite me again) handicap the River City at Churchill Downs, so that is the mission.  

It's not a terrible field.  This time of year you get older horses possibly taking one last run before retirement or 4 YOs who are building on their improvements, with very little high end class, or graded stakes wins, to show for it.  

Conversely, not a lot of video I think worth looking at for this race.  Interestingly, so much of this field is early speed, and not a lot of success in the field at the distance, with only five (5)  1 and  1/8 Mile wins combined.  

Before I go to far, I'd be tone death to not mention that Louisville is having a terrible week following the airplane crash that left at least 13 dead, with 9 or more missing.  Say a prayer for the area as they continue to heal and bury the dead. Prayer, regardless of your beliefs, helps, and never lose sight of the fact that as humans, we are all interconnected.

The weather should be mostly dry after some rain on Friday.  Keep an eye on turf conditions, as this is the last race on the card tomorrow at almost 6 PM and two other races, non graded stakes, are on the card.  Today is listed as firm with rail at 36 feet, it's max position.  

Let's Get After This:

Exacta History: Exacta In The Money (ITM) > 60% in BOLD

Visualization of Early and Late US Timeform Pace: Three true late speed, a few tactical, albeit slow mid runners and a bunch of very early speed.  

I set Par for this race as 75 Early and 105 Late

Tomlinson Number Analysis with Focus on Distance

8 Nov 2025 CD; The River City Handicap G3;  1 1/8 Miles on Turf

So, What to do with all that?  If I'm being honest, I think I'm burned out on handicapping this year because I'm without a very strong opinion. Everyone can sometimes use a break, and post Breeders' Cup I generally shut it down.  It doesn't help I uked all over myself in my annual Super Bowl, The Breeders' Cup Turf (can you tell I'm gripping?).  

I'm going to value the late speed of Chasing the Crown/6:  Loves Churchill, 6 for 6 in the exacta.  Has a win 1/2 furlong shorter so I'm not holding the distance against him but its a wildcard he has to overcome.  Not the best horse in the field, not the best trainer/jock combo, but I like all of it added together. My chalk.

I like Taking Candy/12 more than others, and I have the 5 YO son of Twirling Candy for Lael Stables as a win contender I like his early tactical speed and decent late turn of foot.  Place in G2 two back and a G3 win four back.  

I have a crowded group just below these two that I think are all legitimate exacta contenders.  

Corruption/8 is an improving 4 YO who has just been building all 2025 after entering the year as a maiden.  Acquitted himself well in 4th in The Manhattan in the deep G1 waters, same in the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs.

Lagynos/9 doesn't win much, 3 wins in last 18 but 9 Place and Show in that time frame.  $1.7 MM lifetime winner, won the $500K Tapit at Kentucky Downs by 5 lengths and ran back in Place 9 days later in a grade 3.  Off since September 6, a break Asmussen wins 16% of the time on 485 tries.  Dettori is up, winless in 5 CD starts over past year.  

Epic Ride/2 is a $1.9 MM career winner  at 4 YO and a 2024 Kentucky Derby entrant before going to turf in June of 2025.  1 turf win in 4 tries and today the longest stretch out beyond 8 furlongs since the Kentucky Derby.  Big early speed.  Quality horse, no doubt.  More questions for me than answers.  

Encino/4 is a Brad Cox, gaudy stats Brad, (24% Graded Stakes Winner, 22% Turf, 27% Synth to Turf, 28% Routes, 26% winner at CD with I. Ortiz, Up)with another improving 4 YO making only his 3rd turf start.  First time at CD, First time at distance on turf, very classy son of Nyquist for Godolphin.  More questions than answers as well.  

Mercante/7 had a very good start to season in 2025, winning 3 of first 5  races before going backward a bit.  Oddly placed as 60-1 shot at Keeneland  in Turf Mile last month, cutting back 4 furlongs  from Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs. Has a Place Finish/101 Beyer at this track and distance in May in a Grade 1  and followed that up with a G3 with 1/2 furlong shorter at CD.  Not sure what to make of him.

If I boxed 6-12-8-9-4-2 (Skipping Mercante) for $2, that's a $60 bet.  Too pricy and lousy risk/reward.  This improves somewhat dropping the 4-2 from Win Position, a $2 bet for $24.  That's my base bet.

If you are playing after the Breeders' Cup, I tip my hat to you, a real horseplayer.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: Breeder's Cup Turf 2025

 

Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction.

It seems like ages ago, but this blog first handicapped a Breeders' Cup in Santa Anita in 2008.  The blog itself was conceived while watching the 2007 Breeders' Cup in rainy Monmouth Park, rest in peace George Washington.  It was a different time in the world, as Twitter was just taking hold and people actually read, and gasp, commented on, long form blogs.  Blogs are seeing a  resurgence with sites like Substack, but it was a heady time in horse racing when bloggers were aplenty, covering the sport from every point of view possible.  

I never kidded myself, I'm not a turf writer, just a guy who has been handicapping for the better part of 40 years, a horse racing fan since the mid 1970's and a decent analytical brain (shout out US Navy Nuclear Power Program and 30 years in business culminating in becoming a CEO-shout out to perseverance, shout out to luck, shout out to poor work-life balance.) I digress

As I handicapper, I work all year for this upcoming weekend.  My choice of handicaps isn't random, I'm progressing either through a single meet, or progressing through a stakes calendar for this weekend.  All the Graded Stakes handicapped invests me into these horses, and sets me up to be my sharpest as a player when the handle is big and money is to be made.  Earlier this week I posted a blog entry with all the video on these runners,  I wont repeat that, but you can find it here.  

Let's get After it:

The Breeders Cup Turf   G1:  1 1/2 Miles on the Del Mar Turf Course, for 3 YOs and Up

I was going to call this an interesting field, and then I thought about it, and if you removed Minnie Hauk (Ire) and Rebel's Romance (Ire) from the field, then it would be a very interesting American Grade 1 turf race.  Including them makes this a top heavy race with a fairly mediocre bottom of the field, especially at the outside posts.  The filly, Minnie Hauk (Ire), as morning line favorite at 8-5 I didn't think was appropriate.  Yes she carries 7 less pounds than Rebel's Romance but it's her 8th start, the furthest she's traveled before coming to Del Mar was Ireland to France,  a flight too short to pass out complimentary beverages. At 3 YO, if this filly wins it will be shocking and historic.  Yes she can, I don't think it will happen.  But it's not exactly like Rebel's Romance winning will provide value. The two of them combined for 51.5% of the adjusted Morning Line and 53.6% of Turk's Fair Odds.  I think we will have to get creative with the Betting Structure to realize value.

1.  Have Rebel's Romance (Ire) or Minnie Hauk (Ire) first with a few logical late runners in Place.

2. Swing for the Fence:  Put a bunch of Horses (my non-RED) in Win Spot and put both Minnie Hauk and Rebel's Romance in Place Spot.  

 I priced out both at $24 Dollar Options:

$2 Exacta:  1-8 OVER 2-10-4-3-9-6 for $24

OR

$2 Exacta 2-10-4-3-9-6 OVER 1-8

I'm not wasting money on the most logical, a 1-8 Boxed finish.  

Exacta History for 2024-2025

Tomlinson Analysis for Turf and Distance:

Have Fun Friends, Turk Out! 

Breeders Cup Handicapping Homework: The Breeders' Cup Turf Video Review and Observations

Happy Breeders Cup Week! As a Turf Handicapper, my Super Bowl(s) are all on Saturday:

• Race 8 Post Time 5:41 ET:  Breeders' Cup Turf G1 at 1 1/2 miles
• Race 10 Post Time 7:05 ET: Breeders' Cup Mile G1
• Race 12: Post Time 8:25 ET:  Breeders' Cup F&M Turf G1 at 1 3/8 miles

When you focus on such a niche like Turf Racing, and specifically high end Grade 1 and 2 Turf racing, you get a familiarity with the athletes that really makes handicapping much easier.  The wild card of course is the foreign runners that I've watched little of, as well as current form of the runners who I loved in the summer but are they still the same horse months later?  That's why we do this, the mental challenge of handicapping is something that I thoroughly enjoy.  I've been getting inundated with ads in my social media feeds for AI assisted handicapping.  I understand wanting to get an edge, but this is so lame.  If you need to resort to AI picking winners you might as well just go to the VFW, get loaded up on Old Milwaukee, and do pull tabs all night.  Horse Race Handicapping is for intelligent people to excel, and while the bar keeps getting lowered, we don't have to lower our personal standards.  Say no to AI assisted handicapping.  OK, rant over.   

Lets Get after It.

Breeders' Cup Turf G1: 1 1/2 Miles for 3 YO and Up

When I am starting my homework I try not to get lost in the data at first and just take in as much last race video as possible:

14 September 2025;  Curragh; Irish Leger G1; 

Amiloc (GB) Place finish for 3 YO gelding.  6 of 6 Lifetime Exacta

27 September 2025; Aqueduct; Turf Classic G1;

El Cordobes (Ire) (Show 3 3/4 back), Rebel Red (GB) (5th 7 3/4 back), Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Win 3 1/2 in front ), Redistricting (GB) (Place 3 1/2 back)

23 August 2025; York (GB); Ebor Handicap Stakes  Class 2; 

Ethical Diamond (Ire) (Win by 2 1/2)

27 September 2025; Santa Anita; John Henry Turf Championship G1; 

Gold Phoenix (Ire) (Win by 1 1/4 in front) 

7 September 2025; Baden-Baden (Ger); Grosser Preis von Baden G1;

Goliath (Ger) (Win by 1 1/4 lengths)

4 October 2025; Aqueduct; Jockey Club Derby Invitational G2;

Hill Road (Show 2 1/2 lengths back)

5 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe G1; 

Minnie Hauk (Ire) (Place by a head)

4 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix Dollar G2; 

Rashabar (Ire) (4th- 4 lengths back- (French Only Video-Green, Blue Sleeves, Green Dots on White #9 horse)

4 October 2025; Woodbine; Canadian International G1; 

Silawi (Ire) (Win by a nose), Tawny Port (Place by a nose)

30 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Nashville Derby G3

Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) (Win by a head), Hill Road (Show 3 3/4 lengths back)

That is most recent video on all of the possible field.  There is plenty to digest there.  We'll be back tomorrow to dive in further.  

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Review with Video: The John Henry G2 at Santa Anita and Joe Hirsch G1 at Aqueduct

Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where I specialize in turf race handicapping and exacta bet constructions.  Yesterday we handicapped the John Henry Turf Championship G2 at Santa Anita, and I discussed, but did not handicap, The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1 at Aqueduct (no, I won't pretend that it's Belmont).  

Breeders' Cup is 33 days from now, 5 weeks from last Friday.  After next weekend, and with very few exceptions after that, all the preps for Breeders' Cup will be done and I will turn my attention to handicapping, beginning with as much video as I can lay my hands on for the last 2-3 races for each horse I'm focused on.  I'm not really a Triple Crown fella, I like data, and these turf race contestants at the Breeders' Cup come with loads of data and video.  Heaven for a handicapping nerd such as I.  

The John Henry was no great surprise.  My base handicap had Gold Phoenix as an A+ and odds on favorite while I had Stay Hot as Place horse, an A rating and second best odds.  They both went off at $1.50- 1 odds with Stay Hot considered the incremental chalk.  My bet construction was singled on Mondego ($6.20-1) finally figuring it out and using his incredible turn of foot tactically to win a race.  It didn't happen and may never happen.  

27 September 2025;  John Henry Turf Championship G2; DMR; 1 1/4 Miles on firm turf.  

 

 Race Chart:

Horse Name	PP	1/4	1/2	3/4	1M	STR	FIN
Gold Phoenix (IRE)	7	7	7	7	61	31	11 ¼
Stay Hot	6	5hd	62	6½	7	7	2nk
Spycatcher	3	22	21 ½	21 ½	21	1½	31
Mondego (GB)	5	61 ½	5½	52	5½	4hd	41 ¾
Balladeer	2	12 ½	14	14 ½	12	2hd	51 ¼
Dicey Mo Chara (GB)	4	42	3½	31 ½	4½	6½	6¾
Rastaman Vibe	1	31	42	41 ½	3hd	5hd	7

 

 Race Chart Visualization: 

Joe Hirsch also went as expected.  Rebel's Romance  (Ire) is a beast, going off at $0.64-1  with Redistricting getting longest odds you can expect him to get, $5.31 -1.   

 

27 September 2025;  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1; 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf. 

 

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Have fun friends, Turk out.