Post Race Analysis for the Grade 2 San Gabriel at Santa Anita

Dicey Mo Chara:  Benoit Photo

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  As I said, pre race, I didn't see this as a betting opportunity race because I believed the public would see this race as I did, some combination of Masterof- foxhounds, 

Prince Abama and Dicey Mo Chara in the exacta.  

While the the handicap was good, the bet construction lacked vision.  It's important to always remember that bet construction has to realize your opportunity cost for the risk involved.  Speaking English, If I'm going to bet money, I need to get my money back plus a minimum 3X multiplier, or a $12 bet has to return $48.  It doesn't always work out like this, but you get the idea.  That's not to mean  I won't sometimes go after low hanging fruit, but in general I need my expected return to justify the bet. 

I use a simple formula pre race:  Horse 1 Odds X (Horse 2 Odds +1)= Return on exacta.  It's not to the penny, but its quicker and easier than looking at the will pay chart as it rotates through the field.

Let's come back to this is a second, but first speaking of English, lets watch the race con un picante sabor español.

The San Gabriel Grade 2: 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up.

From the DRF Formulator Race Charts (unpaid and unsolicited plug- I'm comfortable with the DRF tool, it's that simple)

So Pre race I was thinking $3.80 * ($1.20+1) = $8.36 for a $1 Exacta and $16.72 for a $2 Exacta. Those numbers are generally a bit overstated and I typically use 80% of the value I calculate.  I would have won the battle and lost the war.  

What I should have done is consider and give more credit to Flashiest and his 7 Santa Anita Starts, his 3 Place Finishes at the Distance and his excellent late speed.  Added to that is the public's opinion of him at post time:  $21.90 to 1,  Let's plug that into the calculator with Dicey Mo Chara on top:

$3.80 * ($21.90+1)=  $87.02  The $1 Exacta paid $71.40.  For my simplicity I used 80% of my estimate to account for takeout= .80*87.02=$69.62.  You get the idea. 

If I was building bets off the handicap, this one was obvious.  Now in hindsight it's super obvious.  As I start to handicap more and more, I'll get sharper, a fact I've learned many times over the years when I take some time away.  This wasn't a race worth betting under my base handicap, it needed value.  That value actually has to have a chance.  Late speed and a record of Place finishes was starting me in the face.

Anyways, better luck next time.  Turk Out!