Post Race Handicapping Analysis: The Honey Fox G3 at Gulfstream

Welcome Friends to The Turk blog. 

I write handicapping analysis of generally Graded Stake horse races. I started handicapping in 1986 when I spent a summer in Saratoga training to operate nuclear reactors in the sleepy town called Ballston Spa. I lived just blocks from the track. In the mid 1970's, like a lot of kids who grew up in that era, my only access to horse racing was older relatives, ABC Wide World of Sports and Sports Illustrated Magazine.  I had an Aunt, my dear Aunt Rose, who would baby sit me from time to time on Saturdays while my dad worked volunteering at a nearby Boys and Girls Club, and she was my first contact with the sport. I remember sitting at my older cousins house in 1977 watching Seattle Slew win the Preakness at a second cousin's first communion party. I loved reading Sports Illustrated, an era before the instant access internet, and I read and was fascinated by Formula One, Professional Boxing and Horse Racing. It was a simple time in a young boys life. 

In 1986, I was a young man, not quite 20, living in a paradise-like Saratoga (Jumel Place, just blocks from the Oklahoma Training Track.) The highlight that summer was seeing Sylvester Stallone with a bevy of women surrounding him. I worked a lot of mid and night shifts and I would grab the Daily Race Form with my breakfast and handicap. It was like a crossword puzzle to me and the next day I'd see if I was any good. Gambling was never really my thing, but I liked to predict.

Not much has changed in almost 40 years. I hate the term "tout," a label which is what bloggers like me get pigeonholed into. I'm touting no one. My handicaps and my bet constructions are offered free of charge, I have never made any attempt to monetize the blog, and all I'm doing is carefully unpacking a race each week at a level that the track handicapper doesn't have the time to do. Morning Lines and Track Handicappers miss signs, miss over and underlays, because they are busy, because they are surrounded by biases, perceived or not. One race a week I get into the mitochondrial and look for how the field should finish. I offer a bet suggestion on a simple exacta only basis, and the rest is up to you. 

I find my blog to be a relaxing therapy to the hustle and bustle of my job. Operations at a publicly traded company is high stakes, high expectations. Handicapping is an escape for a few hours each week. Horse racing is like a time machine back to Aunt Rosie's couch on 19th Street.

Anyways, I like to build these post race analysis looks at my handicapping, primarily for two reasons:  What did I miss or get right in that race and who should I quietly be watching for in an upcoming race. I will tell you I have had great success watching horses finish 4th or 5th up the track in one race, but showing me something with late turn of foot and stride, and finding them as overlays when most think of them as underlays.  

The Honey Fox G3: Fillies and Mares 4 YO and Up over Firm Turf: 1 Mile. GP.

Honey Fox G3

Race Chart

I identified Princess Theorem and Faith In Humanity (Fr) pre race.  

Faith In Humanity (Fr) Notes:

I really liked her early speed and her post position and thought she'd come out of gate and throttle this race.  Sharp works, with two bullets at 5f in late February.  Of course, being a Brown horse his stats off the layoff are good.  And finally, she was a grade 3 (class neutral) horse.  I still think Speak of the Devil (Fr) is the better horse, but not yesterday, and she herself was coming off a layoff since last June.  

Princess Theorem Notes:

When you are looking for value that that fill the second spot in an exacta, this is exactly what you are looking for.  I didn't think the mare could win, but late speed and a last race win at the distance and over same surface is a recency nod I can't ignore.  -2 Class note is to me she's a 25K OC horse, not a Grade 3.  

Look at :23 second final quarter in last race.

Yes, she finished Show, but could have easily finished Place.  The $1 Trifecta with her paid $373.80.  If you would have taken my top four and boxed them, you win the Tri.  The $2 Exacta, my juice, paid $48.60.  

I'm not touting, I'm analyzing at a level that no track handicapper could possibly because there are not enough hours in the day.  

Aunt Rosie

Have fun friends, Turk out! 

The Nomination Is In: The Honey Fox G3 and The Turk Hits the 700th Post Milestone

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. Today's post mark's a real milestone for this blogger, my 700th Post. 

 So much has changed since September 2008 when I wrote my first tentative posting. In the world that was just before Twitter, Facebook hadn't fully blown up yet, and horse racing, while damaged at that point, was not the devalued product we see now. Hollywood and Arlington, two of my favorite tracks, were there and now gone, not to mention countless synthetic racing surfaces. 

 I joined a blogging alliance, but by the time I joined it was obvious that blogging was a dinosaur medium, with long form writing being replaced by 140 characters. As Prince said, A sign of times. My blog, even in the best of days, was never highly read. My focus on handicapping pigeonholed me and limited my readership. I've stayed true to what I like to do and I've never worried about monetizing my efforts or increasing my clicks. I write what I write, and if it's read by even one person, that makes me happy.

 There have been moments when I considered quitting the blog. My love of horse racing perhaps hit a 30 year low at the beginning of COVID. It coincided with the death of both Poppa and Pops, my Father in Law and Father, in a span of weeks. The world was a dark place. Racing was turned on its head, and I just lost interest. 

It wasn't until late last year did I start to regain my love of both blogging and horse racing. My job has become very busy, as we took our business to the publicly traded market and grown it significantly. Its put a cramp on my automotive restoration activities (slowed, not stopped) but created a need for this form of mental health: the deconstruction and decoding of past performances and race charts into betting possibilities. Over time I've narrowed my focus even further, primarily focused on two things: Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. Also over time I dropped my son, The Little Turk, from the blog title. While my not so little 23 year old will still take horse racing road trips with me (Del Mar just before COVID), he has his own sporting interests (The Buffalo Bills, Sabres and Fantasy Football) that he is pursuing.

So, The Turk remains, older, still bald, but more importantly,  a wise old handicapper who has created positive ROI over a long period of time by focusing on the fundamentals of handicapping, avoiding the parts of the conditions book I'm not good at, and decoupling handicapping from Bet Construction, with an eye towards winning battles and ignoring the war.  

Without too much fanfare, just like the last 699 posts, I present to you my thoughts on The Honey Fox, a 1 mile turf affair at Gulfstream on Fountain of Youth day.  I made a rare foray back onto dirt as well this weekend, and my thoughts on the Santa Anita Handicap can be found here as well.  

The Honey Fox G3: 1 Mile over Fast Turf at GP

I'll keep my betting simple today.  I think Chad Brown's Speak of the Devil (Fr) is a beast: 8 of 11 Distance Exacta, 9 of 16 Turf Exacta, 4 wins in last 9.  

I'll single Speak of the Devil (Fr) with some of the value horses on the board at post time.  Nothing fancy, just workmanlike betting that is rooted in fundamental math. 

If you want to really hunt for value, consider adding Faith in Humanity (Fr) to the win spot.  4 YO, also trained by Brown, will have the rail and great early speed.  White Frost will also get some attention from savvy bettors:  Last time out winner over this surface at this distance, the Mott trained Candy Ride mare is four of four in the Turf exactas lifetime.  2nd off a long layoff that included all of 2022.  

Have fun friends! Turk out.  

The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Handicap

Defunded: Benoit 

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, and thank you to the good people at The Thorofan for having me today.  My blog primarily focuses on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction.  I've handicapped dirt races for the better part of 35 years, so I'm capable, it's just not my blog's primary focus.  I hope you give me a read and good luck if you are playing.

Classic Distance racing always a bit of a wildcard for veteran older horses: 11 starts for this field at that distance, 2 wins and 4 Place/Shows.  Tomlinson's, always a bit murky, have Hopper 372 and next closest 50 points lower.  That's a good spread for comparing Tomlinson's but is Hopper the pick?.  Focus on the key metrics every race when building your base handicap: Class, Current Form, Early and Late Speed, Distances, Track Record, Trainer/Rider stats, In the Money and Wins over surface.  If you hit the key variables in the base handicap, it puts you in a good position to focus on the nuance during bet construction: pace, trainer intentions, post positions, tote board odds.  

Ultimately you will grade yourself on a few metrics:  Did I make a return on my betting capital? Was my handicap any good?  Does my analysis of the Past Performances justify continued betting on that surface, that age range, that track? Did I have fun?  I'm no gambling whale.  I'm just a nobody who likes horses, like's to write about race handicapping, and talks about himself in the third person.  All that said, I do this because it brings me joy and I have fun.  I think in modern times there are far easier ways to make money in sports betting, so if you are reading this, I hope you agree with me.

Let's get after it!

The Santa Anita Handicap G1: 1 1/4 Miles for 4 YO and UP

I don't want to spend too much time on video as I don't think there are many races relevant for current form with this field.

The San  Pasqual Grade 2:  1 1/8 Fast Dirt SA 28 January 2023

Pegasus World Cup G1:  1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt GP; 28 January 2023

 

 The San Antonio Grade 2:  1 1/16 Miles over Fast Dirt SA:  26 December 2022

So what do we make of it? I think you could legitimately make a case for the top 7 in my base handicap to win.  

Defunded is a Grade 1 horse and gives nothing regarding class.  Good mix of early tactical and late speed.  Training well for Baffert after trip to GP in late January.  J Hernandez is up and  26% winner this meet and him and Baffert at SA over rolling year are 35% winners.   5 of 6 in the money at Santa Anita, 10 of 14 in the money over fast dirt, 9 of 14 lifetime exacta finish, one classic distance start, last year's Gold Cup G1 at SA, finishing Place to There Goes Harvard.  

Hollywood (Ha!) Gold Cup G1: 1 1/14 Miles Fast Dirt SA: 30  May 2022

A five horse field with lousy pace scenario is no reason to change thinking.  Different race, different field, different point in horse form.

Proxy is a fringe Grade 1 contender, winning the Grade 1 Clark last year.  Matches or comes close to Defunded's class level.  Solid early speed but excellent late turn of foot.  First SA start.  Only second attempt at Distance for this millionaire.    Pace, and how we feel about the pace scenario, will play a key role, but I do like his far outside start and his ability to be sitting midpack for critical part of race.  

Newgrange and Stilleto Boy form my next grouping.  Newgrange gets Dettori up (21% winner 85 starts) this meet and enters off last race win in the San Pasqual G2.  Fast Early, decent late speed. Violence colt is solid Grade 2 and gives up one rating in class to the best here.  4 YO and already $750K earnings.  5 wins in 8 starts, 3 wins in 3 starts at SA , 7 of 8 in the money over fast dirt.  Pay attention to tote board. 

Stilleto Boy is the proverbial "hanging around the hoop" colt, putting up $1.4 MM in earnings with 3 wins but 15 of 20 in the money.  Owner/Trainer Moger's not afraid to take this Shackleford colt go head to head with anyone.  Dangerous.  Fast early/solid late speed.  Kent Desormeaux up as Mike Smith jumps to Hopper.  1 win in 6 SA Starts but 5 of 6 in the money.

There Goes Harvard, a 5 YO Mike McCarthy conditioned horse had a turf to G1 dirt win  last year and tries again after going in a 1 mile Turf run at SA in early February.  Sharp work on 18 February.  2 Classic Distance starts, 2 exacta finishes.  6 starts at SA, 6 in the money finishes.  Solid, not spectacular. 

Warrant gives up two class ranks and is a solid G3 runner.  Cox and Prat are 39% winners rolling year outside of SA.  Prat's meet has been forgettable at 11%.  Place by a head in last year's race edition, a lifetime best Beyer for what that's worth.  9 of 13 lifetime starts in exacta.  

And finally Hopper, a 4 YO in 5th start, is very very fast early but seems to be in deep waters here.  Started on rail in San Pasqual and yielded late presumably after shortest run.    A huge wildcard, does he rabbit or does Smith, up for first time on him, wait?  

6 YO Heywoods Beach will be back early and can close fast late.  Really comes down to how this one plays out.  

I don't think this will be a race that the best horses can't manage the pace. Defunded and Proxy can both manage the speed tactics, as well as Newgrange and Stilleto Boy.  I do think Baffert will send Hopper early for Defunded to target later.  Some other late speed to consider is the 5 YO Curlin trained by Joe Sharp, Scarlet Fusion.  

I'll be paying attention to the tote board and looking for value in my exacta.  I may look at Defunded and/or Proxy OVER Value: There Goes Harvard, Warrant, Haywoods Beach, Scarlet Fusion, possibly Proxy.

If I single Defunded it's a $2 bet for $10 and if I hedge Proxy in both spots its a $18 bet.  I'll be clear and place the $10 bet. 

Have fun friends, Turk Out!