I write handicapping analysis of generally Graded Stake horse races. I started handicapping in 1986 when I spent a summer in Saratoga training to operate nuclear reactors in the sleepy town called Ballston Spa. I lived just blocks from the track. In the mid 1970's, like a lot of kids who grew up in that era, my only access to horse racing was older relatives, ABC Wide World of Sports and Sports Illustrated Magazine. I had an Aunt, my dear Aunt Rose, who would baby sit me from time to time on Saturdays while my dad worked volunteering at a nearby Boys and Girls Club, and she was my first contact with the sport. I remember sitting at my older cousins house in 1977 watching Seattle Slew win the Preakness at a second cousin's first communion party. I loved reading Sports Illustrated, an era before the instant access internet, and I read and was fascinated by Formula One, Professional Boxing and Horse Racing. It was a simple time in a young boys life.
In 1986, I was a young man, not quite 20, living in a paradise-like Saratoga (Jumel Place, just blocks from the Oklahoma Training Track.) The highlight that summer was seeing Sylvester Stallone with a bevy of women surrounding him. I worked a lot of mid and night shifts and I would grab the Daily Race Form with my breakfast and handicap. It was like a crossword puzzle to me and the next day I'd see if I was any good. Gambling was never really my thing, but I liked to predict.
Not much has changed in almost 40 years. I hate the term "tout," a label which is what bloggers like me get pigeonholed into. I'm touting no one. My handicaps and my bet constructions are offered free of charge, I have never made any attempt to monetize the blog, and all I'm doing is carefully unpacking a race each week at a level that the track handicapper doesn't have the time to do. Morning Lines and Track Handicappers miss signs, miss over and underlays, because they are busy, because they are surrounded by biases, perceived or not. One race a week I get into the mitochondrial and look for how the field should finish. I offer a bet suggestion on a simple exacta only basis, and the rest is up to you.
I find my blog to be a relaxing therapy to the hustle and bustle of my job. Operations at a publicly traded company is high stakes, high expectations. Handicapping is an escape for a few hours each week. Horse racing is like a time machine back to Aunt Rosie's couch on 19th Street.
Anyways, I like to build these post race analysis looks at my handicapping, primarily for two reasons: What did I miss or get right in that race and who should I quietly be watching for in an upcoming race. I will tell you I have had great success watching horses finish 4th or 5th up the track in one race, but showing me something with late turn of foot and stride, and finding them as overlays when most think of them as underlays.
Honey Fox G3
Race Chart
I identified Princess Theorem and Faith In Humanity (Fr) pre race.
Faith In Humanity (Fr) Notes:
I really liked her early speed and her post position and thought she'd come out of gate and throttle this race. Sharp works, with two bullets at 5f in late February. Of course, being a Brown horse his stats off the layoff are good. And finally, she was a grade 3 (class neutral) horse. I still think Speak of the Devil (Fr) is the better horse, but not yesterday, and she herself was coming off a layoff since last June.
Princess Theorem Notes:
Look at :23 second final quarter in last race.
Yes, she finished Show, but could have easily finished Place. The $1 Trifecta with her paid $373.80. If you would have taken my top four and boxed them, you win the Tri. The $2 Exacta, my juice, paid $48.60.
I'm not touting, I'm analyzing at a level that no track handicapper could possibly because there are not enough hours in the day.
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| Aunt Rosie |
Have fun friends, Turk out!
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