The Nomination Is In: The Oaklawn Handicap G2

 

Rated R Superstar:  Thank You Dustin Orona

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, I am the Turk, a 37 year horse handicapper who has been blogging since 2008.  My handicapping these days is primarily for races run over a route of grass, but an occasional foray onto dirt is always enjoyable.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing me this opportunity today. 

My handicapping methods are a derivative of styles learned from reading handicapping authors like Tom Ainsile, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz, and when I was a younger, The Happy Handicapper, Robert Summers.  Yes, I refer to myself in the third person as The Turk.  Originally I did this to protect my identity because I wasn't sure if my employer would frown upon an employee with a certain amount of fiduciary responsibilities writing about gambling. Oh, how the times have changed.  For anyone who joined the work force in the 1980's, just think back to what was acceptable behavior and personal appearance back then compared to now.  I'm not saying it was better or worse, I'm just saying it's very different.  In today's climate, writing about horse racing and gambling will most likely cause you to be ostracized for being a bit weird, but in the spectrum of workplace weird, on the harmless side of the scale.  What does any of this have to do with horse racing?  I started to think about older horses when I looked at Rated R Superstar, the 1 horse in the Oaklawn Handicap, the $1.0 MM Grade 2 race at Oaklawn Park I am focused on today.  This will be the 10 year old gelded son of Kodiak Kowboy ($5,000 fee) 69th race.  When I started handicapping horses made more starts,  and it wasn't uncommon to see big start counts, but when was the last time in a Grade 2 you saw a 10 YO with that many starts?  It's not often. A millionaire winner across the Oaklawn surface and approaching $2.0 MM in career earnings, I have a special place in my heart of the hard knocking veterans. His performance for his career in blacktype is just steady and consistent. Follow this link to read more about Rated R Superstar's 10th season debut from earlier this year.  

Do you put time into studying the science and data behind racing?  

In a 29 January 2011 published paper entitled, The Effect of Age on Thoroughbred Race Performance, authors Marshall and Marksteiner generated data on the impact to Beyer Speed Figs over time.  Horses were grouped into 25 categories based on age and the table above shows the average difference between the speed figure a horse earned in a particular race and that horse’s career mean speed figure. 

In Rated R Superstar's case, 55 horses made 565 total starts when they were greater than 9 years old. Speed figures for the horses running in these 565 races average 7.1 points or 0.5 standard deviations below their career mean speed figure (Diff and St Diff). This differential translates into 2.9 lengths for a 6 furlong race. It may seem obvious, but I find the curve up and the curve away to/from peak performance by age to be the interesting thing here and it fits my fact pattern for analyzing horses of different age competing against each other.  Interesting yes, handicapping actionable data? I focus on recency, typically less than a year and less than past six starts, to peg current form and don't try to view the career starts and performance like this, but still, fascinating.  

Ok, I clearly did not understand the assignment!  Lets get after it.  

It's a bit early to figure out what the track conditions will be. Weather is calling for some rain on Friday and slightly dryer Saturday.  

The Essex Handicap G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 18 March 2023 at Oaklawn Park

The Gulfstream Park Mile G2: 1 Mile on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023

The Santa Anita Handicap G1: 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023

Recency.  These three races seem to really pick up on today's contestants abilities and possibly their deficiencies.  Let's put a pin in that for now. 

The Oaklawn Handicap G2: 1 1/8 Miles over Dirt for 4 YO and Up

This is a compelling field, a blanket finish style of handicap, with a mix of early speed and closing turns of foot that I expect will intersect over the last panel. I like Last Samurai if I'm singling.  Two 100+ Beyer wins over this track in grade 3's over past two months.  4 wins in 9 OP starts.  Only one win in 9 tries at the distance, 25% winner in 20 starts over fast dirt.  He's not outclassed by much, working well, solid connections and breeding, little to dislike but could easily finish out of the money too.  I'm betting that his earlier tactical will put him on the rail out of the gate and his late speed will give him a look at the wire.  

The next five runners to me are all toss ups with little to differentiate them.  In no order, Pletcher adds Blinkers to Charge It.  The horse looked unfocused and had no real fight in the Gulfstream Park Mile.  Blinkers for Pletcher is a 18% win for first in 56 tries and blinkers in general drive a 19% win in 62 tries. Far outside but big early speed.  Position and pace may dictate how much fight he has this race. 

Proxy is a late speed monster.  5 Place or Shows in 7 starts at this distance, 1 win.  Look at his close in Santa Anita Handicap, his belated late run in Pegasus G1, right down his Past Performances.  Rosario, up, won with him in The G1 Clark last November where he ran on the pace.  I expect he will try something similar.  

The before mentioned Rated R Superstar should not win this race but his 25 starts over OP Dirt is more races than career starts for anyone else in the field and he will bring his best.  

The ageless Kent Desormeaux rode a magnificent Santa Anita Handicap with Stilleto Boy who cannot be ignored.  Show in the Pegasus at 45-1 two back. 4 of 4 lifetime in the money at OP, 14 of 18 in the money on fast dirt, early speed, Could be a real disruptive force here.

Finally, Classic Causeway at 4 YO makes second dirt start after spending the back half of 3 YO campaign on the turf. $1.4 M winner from some early 3 YO success, could go either way now.  

What to do with all this?  Most likely I'll be watching the tote board (which has become an increasingly frustrating exercise as late money pours in with no time to react for the little guy) and looking for a value play that runs counter to my handicap.   A $2 Exacta  of Rated R Superstar, Stilleto Boy, Last Samurai and Proxy, with two of the longer odds covered in Win-Place and two of the shorter odds in Place only is $12.   I'd like to see Charge It, who is plenty capable,  have a better effort before I back again.  

 I'll most likely come up with 10 more permutations of this bet construction before post time, so have fun with it yourself and good luck!

Turk Out!