Saturday, July 1, 2017

The Nomination Is In: The United Nations at Monmouth

Beach Patrol: Photo Lane's End
Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk blog.

The Turk loves a good head scratcher.  That's what today' United Nations over the grass is to me:  A quality nine horse field, with the turf listed as firm but heavy rains predicted over the next several hours.  The field is still intact but keep your eyes on the track conditions and scratches and changes.

I picked Beach Patrol for my highlighted equine today, but I'm betting against him.  His last win was a gutty effort six races back at Arlington and he's the only Grade 1 winner here, but I'm expecting he'll be heavily bet so I'm thinking contrarian and will fit him into Place and Show.

I'll save my crazy, rapid readers a rambling diatribe and just get after it.

Chad Brown's barn is 23% over the turf, 24% routes and 20% graded stakes, all race highs.  Beach Patrol is 10 of 13 in the money over turf.  I'm shading out of the Win Spot to my own peril.

I'm considering any of three for Win.  Bigger Picture, trained by Michael Maker, with Bravo Up, has two wins at the distance.  The gelded six year old should be in the top 5.

Messi (Ger) has been training sharply for Graham Motion and the seven year old will have a nice price.  Better suited in Show-Exotic spot.

Can'thebelieving (Ire) it's Motion's other entry.  The six year old gelding put a good effort up over Monmouth turf in June and is also training sharp.  Better suited in Place-Exotic.

Itsinthepost (Fr) is 4 of 5 in the money in 2017 and he should put up a solid effort regardless of turf condition.  I like him to Win through Exotic, top 4.

Oscar Nominated is a four year old Kitten's Joy colt running for Michael Maker.  He's a bit slower than the rest of the field but is my only remaining candidate for the top 4.

That's six horses being considered for top four slots.  I'm not going to overthink this one too much.

Beach Patrol should set the pace.  I'm looking for Itsinthepost to rally for the Win as most likely scenario.  My base handicap is a rare deviation for me and I didn't base handicap and instead built a possible exotic bet structure.  I may keep it simple and put 3-5-7 OVER 2-1, a $2 bet for $12.

My trifecta may be 2 OVER 1-3-5-7 OVER 1-3-5-7-8, a $2 bet for $32.   Whatever I do today, I'm not over covering and I'm prepared to lose for a reasonable chance at least double the return if I win.

What ever you do, handicap yourself and bet responsibly.

Turk Out!

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