Sunday, March 20, 2011

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 19, 2011; The Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four including the Azeri and the Rebel

That smilin' cowboy to the left is Larry Jones, the winning conditioner of Havre de Grace, the 2011 winner of the Grade III Azeri at Oaklawn Park on Rebel Stakes day.

The Turk netted $140 bucks but came up just short of his targeted Pick Four bet when the last leg, a Maiden Claimer, didn't go our way. A Superfecta bet on the Azeri did well for me, as I didn't think it was too complicated to have Havre de Grace and Blind Luck 1-2 and then find a few others for Show and 4th. My Superfecta bet in the Rebel came up just off, as Sartaoga Red and JW Blue snuck in ahead of lumbering duo Sway Away and JP's Gusto. Sway Away was a real disappointment and I'm curious where he turns next, while J.P's Gusto is about what I thought he was. The race was very different then what I handicapped with the scratch of Elite Alex and then the late scratch of Alternation, but no excuses.

What do we make of The Factor. I've loved him this spring but perhaps wrongly pigeonholed him as a sprinter/miler. The gallop out showed me he's got 1 1/8 no problem and 1 1/4 may be within reach.

Oaklawn Park Pick Four March 19, 2011

We've finally reached the most interesting part of Derby prep time. The serious runners of the 3 YO crop will be making plans for their final preps and horses we may be discounting at this point will slip under the radar. What a great sport, ain't life grand?

Have fun this week, be safe, show your friends and family you love them. The Turk gave up bourbon and cigars for lent so I'm overcompensating with coffee to keep my cheery disposition intact.

Turk Out!


Susan said...

Though I felt that The Factor could/would win yesterday, I must say I was impressed at how easy he seemed to do it. Was it because of what was behind him? or not? There is no doubt, he is legit. I still don't see the 10 furlongs tho.
Giving up bourbon for Lent would mean no bourbon at Keeneland. You are a brave and courageous person.

The Turk said...

Susan, thank you. Regarding The Factor, regardless if he is a classic distance racehorse or not, the way he was pulling away at 1 1/16 was pretty darn impressive. Quality Road may not have been a classic distance runner the past few years but boy could he motor to around 8.5 furlongs, and in a sport that is looking for new heroes, I'll take that six to seven times per year. Thank you again for the kind words, I owed the Lord and giving up my two key vices seemed the best way to square up with him.

Amateurcapper said...


Thought-provoking, as usual.

THE FACTOR was/is a beast...for real threat to UNCLE MO and the rest. Miles the best in the Rebel.

Also, CALEB'S POSSE ran like a late-running sprinter with that loom/fade job. Derby Trial for him?

I'd have loved to see what ALTERNATION could do...I believe he'd have closed for 2nd/3rd considering the winning margin, battling with SWAY AWAY (if Bonde runner was unimpeded early). I hope he's okay after getting fractions/caste in the gate. If so, perhaps the La. Derby next weekend?

Take a look at the run into the clubhouse turn...SWAY AWAY appears to clip heels when the path he was in was closed by the inside/outside horses, which forces Gomez to bobble in the saddle to avoid falling. All momentum and chance were lost for the one-run closer.

I'm not saying he'd have won. His inability to overcome is a big negative and makes him a cut or two below the division's top Derby contenders. That said, both Gomez and Bonde were very high going in which leads me to believe he deserves another chance.

However, I'll give him a chance in a sprint when their Derby dreams succumb to reality. SWAY AWAY gives me the impression he'll be best as a late running sprinter with 7-8 furlongs his best trips.

Type at ya' soon!