Saturday, September 26, 2009
Post Race Analysis for Race Day September 26th, 2009: The Kentucky Classic Cup Grade II at Turfway Park
"...because the house always wins.
Play long enough, the house takes you.
Unless, when that perfect hand comes,
you bet big. Then you take the house."
Daniel Ocean, noted gambler.
The Turk doesn't gloat. The Turk is a horseplayer who knows better then to do anything except cash the tickets quietly and hope to cash another. No promises in this game. The Turk had several people today ask me why I picked the Kentucky Classic Cup to handicap and not some of the more high profile races at Laurel or Belmont. Easy question, because I thought I could win this one.
Turfway Park Race 13: The Kentucky Classic Cup Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on fake dirt for 3 YO and Up.
As I said pre-race, there was a stratification between the top 6 and the bottom 3. They could run this race 10 times and I don't think that bottom 3 changes order. It's that kind of conviction that sets up one of my favorite angles "The large field with one heavy chalk and some obvious dogs" angle. Doesn't exactly roll off the tounge but it describes it perfectly, even if it didn't work as I expected.
It was clear to me that the bettors would fawn over Hold Me Back and why not. As a bettor I use the heavy chalk to help me fill one spot in an exotic ticket even though I understand it will reduce the payout. I pointed out that Hold Me Back was a tepid chalk in my book so I boxed him in both the Tri and the Super's. My base handicap was pretty darn accurate with the big difference being the flip flop of Hold Me Back and essentially Furthest Land. The Turk slotted the 2nd place, 3rd place, 5th,
7th, 8th and 9th place finishers in exacting order. You can make some hay like that.
Quality, not quantity. Know when not to bet, and that is much more often then when you should bet. When you see something set up before your eyes, and you been doing it long enough to see the repetitive patterns, bet as big as your budget will allow and never a cent more. I was rewarded today.
Have Fun, Turk Out!