Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, and day 2 of the Kentucky Downs meet. For Day 1 I handicapped The Tapit $500,000. Some observations pop out:
Lagynos, wow! Track record. The screenshot captures the moment he breaks free and runs off with it.
What did I do well.
- I nailed handicapping the winner. The key to exotic betting is being able to pick winners.
- Am I smart or is the track handicapper dumb? Lagynos is 8-1 Morning Line. I don't look at Morning Lines as it adds bias. Even adjusted to remove the takeout, he adjusted to 10.5-1. I handicap a fair odds value of 5-1 and put him as the chalk in my base handicap. But what happens? He gets bet down to 3-2.
- The seven scratches didn't help. What's the point of the "Also Entered" if they are just going to scratch?
- It's a hard game to beat.
The Tapit $500KKD 28 August 2025; 1 Mile 70 Yards Firm Turf.
Ky Downs — Tapit S. (1 Mile 70Y, Turf) • Aug 28, 2025
| Horse | PP | St | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin | Jockey | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lagynos | 9 | 7 | 41/2 | 31 1/2 | 33 1/2 | 1 | 1 | Ortiz J L | 1.50 |
| Ohana Honor | 6 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 71/2 | 2hd | 2no | Hernandez B J Jr | 9.19 |
| Cameo Performance | 5 | 5 | 81 1/2 | 8 | 6 | 3hd | 3 | Gaffalione T | 4.70 |
| Nelson Avenue | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21 1/2 | 2 | 41/2 | 4no | Dettori L | 5.54 |
| Nineeleventurbo | 3 | 3 | 51/2 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | Geroux F | 6.92 |
| Tapit Shoes | 2 | 9 | 9 | 71 | 8 | 8 | 6 | Gutierrez Mario | 38.68 |
| Multitask | 4 | 6 | 61 1/2 | 51 1/2 | 4 | 71 1/2 | 7 | Cheminaud V | 15.85 |
| Paros | 1 | 8 | 11/2 | 11 | 11 | 51 1/2 | 8 | Rosario J | 5.86 |
| Track Phantom | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 9 | Asmussen E | 43.74 |
Superscripts show lengths-behind fractions (e.g., 1/2, 1, 1½, 3½) and special margins hd (head) and no (nose).
Source: KD Tapit S. chart, Aug 28, 2025.
For day two of this meet I'm focused on a 3 YO Race with a $3.5 MM purse, the Grade 3 Nashville Derby, run at 1 mile and 5/16.
US Timeform Early and Late Pace
12 Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) – TimeformUS Early/Late not listed in DRF page
What to make of all of this?
I'm going to keep it simple: $2 Exacta 11/12/8 OVER 11/12/8/2/5/1 for $30 Dollars.
Have fun friends, Turf Out!
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