Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Raceday January 31, 2009

The Turk had a very forgettable weekend of handicapping, with the Donn, the Holy Bull and the Santa Monica all giving him no joy. My fellow horse racing aficionado at tells me quite correctly that the bias was too great to overcome at Gulfstream Park. While I don't disagree completely, I think that bias is relative to the horse, especially at 1 1/8 miles, and that a quality horse can overcome the bias. My mistake, especially in Holy Bull, was throwing the bias out completely.

The Holy Bull G3, Gulfstream Park. 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs

The Donn Handicap G1, Gulfstream Park. 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YO and up.

Even when you're not correct you should try to learn/decipher/grasp/rationalize what happened, good and bad.

In the Holy Bull I discounted Saratoga Sinner, as much as I loved the name. The horse had worked very fast before its last race in early January. Leading up to the Holy Bull, the horse's work was dull. I'll be watching Saratoga Sinner, but I don't see how you pick this horse to win from the PP. I guess that's why I'm engaging in "loser talk". Steve Byk spoke highly of Reade Baker's Bear's Rocket, and the horse had worked good, but nothing breath-taking, plus the horse is mostly a synthetic runner. Mrs. Turk nailed this pick in full disclosure.

In the Donn, I was on the hunt for a horse that I thought would bring me good value with a legitimate chance. Anak Nakal went off at $11.50, the bettors 6th favorite choice. He had a great run line, "...was outrun...." Really? Did they have a team of monkeys on that? I was surprised how well Finallymadeit ran. Two races in two weeks. Break up the Yankees!

And in the Santa Monica, I picked Ventura, liked Jibbom, and thought Baronness Thatcher would make the top three. Baroness Thatcher was very strong to the top of the stretch and then dropped like a stone.

Back after it next weekend. If you ain't in it, how you gonna win it!


Amateurcapper said...

So you're saying there weren't any quality horses in the Holy Bull? I think that's a correct assessment. I'd give BEETHOVEN and WEST SIDE BERNIE longshot looks with the right race shape going forward. At least they were well clear of 5th. Neither has ever run particularly fast so I'll need to see them do decently at the top levels. GIACOMO one-paced in the '05 Santa Anita preps and that set him up to take advantage of a dream trip in a slow Derby win.
BTW, did you see we won't have to worry about what to do w/ SARATOGA SINNER???? He's got a chip in his knee and needs surgery. That's how hard the track NASCAR asphalt.

Amateurcapper said...

Almost forgot, thanks for the shout out.