Wide Open! That is what I would say to describe today's handicapping challenge, the $100,000 Laurel Park Turf Cup, which thanks to the track announcer, confirmed to me that the race is indeed on the turf today. Twitter is a powerful tool for a handicapper who is trying to collect information. I understand budgets are tight at the tracks, but a good social media poster who can respond to tweets is incredibly helpful. Through 4 races while I write this the Turf is listed as good.
Wide Open! Let's get after it.
Renown (GB) enters off a show finish (Place through DQ) in the $100K John's Call Stakes at SAR in mid August.
Bottled up along the rail after breaking from 5 hole, Renown (GB) darted through a hole late showing as his running line said "...good courage". 11 of 20 In the Money over grass with 8 wins, a 50% winner at this distance in 12 starts, distance (1/8 cut), class (same), and weight (-1) all pretty consistent with last time out for conditioner Elizabeth Voss who is 49% in the money and a 19% winner in 2018 over 37 starts in these conditions.
Hello Don Julio enters off 1 3/8 $80K OC at SAR where he finished Place by a neck after leading most of the way. 9 of 16 in the money over grass, no wins in only one try at the distance for the 6 YO gelded son of Afleet Alex. Class, Distance and Weight (+2) all step ups.
Postulation is down over past two races but is going with Michael Matz today for first time (29% in 7 tries with first timers). Training sharply, the 6 Yo gelded son of Harlan's Holiday is going at same distance, with similar class and weight (+1), 8 Win-Places in 19 career starts.
Tizzarunner has 2 wins in 3 Laurel Park starts and breaks from far outside post today. Winless in 2018, class dropped from Grade 2 to 3 to $97K and now $100K stakes. Last time out at Ellis Park he finished well beaten in the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Preview.
Final Copy and Vintage Matters break 1 and 2 on the inside respectively. Final Copy has no wins in 5 tries at the distance, drops in Class from Grade 2 Nijinsky at Woodbine at similar distance but picking up 3 pounds. Over good turf he ran evenly throughout. Ontario bred Malibu Moon 4 YO trained by Roger Attfield.
Vintage Matters hasn't won in 2 years and 2 months, only has 1 win in 11 turf tries and is 1 of 11 lifetime as well and is 6-1 Morning line incredibly. Wide Open!
Not In Charge has nice late turn of foot and comes in with a 1 1/2 mile win overfirm turf on this course. Scuba , a 7 YO gelded son of Tapit, makes his 5th career turf start and is looking for win 2.
I'm thinking that any of the field can PLACE but only a few logical winners, led by Renown and Hello Don Julio. I'll be building exacta tickets after looking at the Will Pay's just before they head into the gate.
Have fun friends.
Turk Out!
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