Friday, August 14, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 14, 2009; The National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga

There are days like today that seem like nothing is going right and then boom! It all just clicks into place, like a lazy day on Bourbon Street drinking a bit of, well, bourbon, and enjoying a fine cigar.

The Turk was traveling back from Lincoln, Nebraska this afternoon and trying to return to the Little Turk and Mrs. Turk in Buffalo. I was on standby for all my return flights. I was the last person picked to fill the plane in both Lincoln and then again in Chicago. That's lucky.

Last night, the Turk handicapped the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga while he ate dinner at his hotel. It was obvious to me that the field was very competitive, full of serious Grade II runners. As I said in my pre race post, I thought it was too competitive to expect much better then an Exacta and that I expected to try just a few super's for kicks. I stuck to my plan.

While sitting in the Lincoln Airport, I reviewed my handicap and felt pretty good about my top two. I worked my handicap, didn't second guess myself and bet $20 on the 8/9, my straight Exacta handicap. I was rewarded with a $580 return.

Race 8 SAR: The National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on Turf for 3 YOs.

I bet well before the race went to post, but a handicapper needs to develop their own morning lines and have a good feel what odds a horse will go off at. You won't always be right, but the better your handicap, the more approximate your handicap will be to the better track handicappers morning lines. I knew the payouts would be good on this race. I bet an additional six dollars only on 2 straight super's and a tri.

Handicapping and betting are two different skill sets. For many years I sabotaged good handicaps with bad betting. I'm still not a great bettor, but I'm improving. In the face of serious parity, for a low risk bettor, pass. Regardless, the worst thing any bettor can do is be reckless. It's the quickest path to a negative ROI. I went defensive. I chase super's but this one was a tough chase.

The Turk is writing this with the Little Turk next to me, Mrs. Turk close by and Kay, the foundation Weimaraner against my leg.

Life is Good. I'm a lucky man. Turk out!


John said...

Nice hit!

EquiSpace said...

Excellent call by the Turk!

No racing today..fantasy island on the radar. Enjoy this fine WNY day...

The Turk said...

Geno, Swifty, Thanks!