Friday, July 7, 2017

The Nomination Is In: The G2 Suburban at Belmont

Follow Me Crev: Santa Anita 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

If you told me Follow Me Crev, the five year old son of Quality Road, was racing in a six horse field, I would say of course, it's the state of racing at Santa Anita.

What's really disappointing is that this isn't Santa Anita, it's Belmont, and he goes against Shaman Ghost and maybe two more legitimate threats in the Grade 2 Suburban.

Today was a messy day at Belmont weather wise.  The track is listed as Fast at the end of day Friday.  Pay attention to the Scratches and Changes and Track Condition Page, as you always should, prior to betting.  The weather is supposed to be dry out after the rains end around midnight on Friday.

Let's get after it!

Let's take a closer look at some of these runners:

Pimlico Special G3  1 3/16 Miles Fast Dirt.  Watershed and Shaman Ghost

 Charlestown Classic G2 1 1/8 Sloppy Dirt.  Matt King Coal and Sunny Ridge.

Santa Anita Handicap G1  1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt.  Shaman Ghost and Follow Me Crev. 

Santa Anita Gold Cup G1  1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt.  Follow Me Crev (watch last 1/8 mile)

I'm really not sure what I want to do with this race.  I don't think it's a stretch to say Shaman Ghost is the best of the bunch.  10 of 12 in the money on fast dirt.  A field top Beyer of 112.  Consistent, solid efforts, typically comes late, with a physical charge in final 16th.  Game.  Driving. Flat Out.

Shaman Ghost will be heavily bet.  My only interest in this race is to either beat him or single him on top of exacta with value below. Value is relative for most of these runners, so unless I make the case for Sunny Ridge or Watershed in Place, what am I doing?

Can Follow Me Crev, Keen Ice or Matt King Coal win?  Of course they can.

Keen Ice is first back after trip to Dubai.  It's an angle I don't love.  Training sharply for six weeks now for Trainer Pletcher.  Winless in last 10 races, 2 wins in 21 starts, 1 win in seven starts at classic distance.  Ugh.  I'm not a fan of this horse at all.

Matt King Coal comes in off win and career high 102 Beyer on a fast Penn National dirt route in early June.  4 of 4 in the money in 2017 for the 4 year old son of Cool Coal Man, a Florida Bred trained by Linda Rice with Ortiz, up. Lone Speed and a front running style.  He could steal the race.

Follow Me Crev leaves California for the first time for Trainer Vlad Cerin.  He'll be coming very late with Shaman Ghost.  Loses the class battle to Shaman Ghost but with right trip its possible.

I'm thinking Shaman Ghost late but I'm going to try Matt King Coal and/or Follow Me Crev over Shaman Ghost in an exacta.  That sounds conservative and blah.

I may  box Matt King Coal, Follow Me Krev, Sunny Ridge and Keen Ice in an exacta and freeze out Shaman Ghost for a high reward/low risk betting possibility.

If I play it, and that's still a big if, it will be purely hunting for value, which means Shaman Ghost having an off day.  Sounds like a bad bet.

Turk out!

No comments: