The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
The Turk feels heavily invested into Hollywood Park this meet; I've traveled there twice now from Buffalo, and when I wasn't betting and winning, I was wandering the facility and thinking about what it must have been like in another time, another era, when names like Noor, Swaps, Roundtable and Native Diver were revered as the champions they were.
To me, my favorite races are the ones that crown the champion of the current meet at a particular track, and I'm quite fond of the handicap division, so it's the Hollywood Gold Cup, The Goodwood, The Clark, The Woodward, its those races that stir this horse racing fan's soul.
A nice field and better weather than the sauna that is the East Coast has my eyes turned to the Hollywood card today. Let's get after it!
The huge post time favorite will be Game on Dude: 4 straight 100 Plus Beyers including a freakish 115 in The Californian at Hollywood in early June.
I'm going to back Richard's Kid just slightly in a hunt for value: Baffert with Bejarano up win 32% of the time. A nice workout/race win at 1 3/8 at HOL in early June after coming back from Dubai after a one year, five race, failed experiment.
I think the next three are pretty even; the filly Love Theway Youare comes in off a Grade 1 Vanity win.
Kettle Corn is an obvious choice; the winner here in December in the G3 Native Diver, a game Show after a bad start in the Mervin Leroy in May, and an exhaust fumes Place in the Californian.
I like Spud Spivens to make some exotic noise with nothing other than my gut, some nice work and an exit off a solid Allowance race close in May. I think he'll have plenty of pace targets to shoot for and wouldn't be surprised to see him fourth.
Thirtyfirststreet is still more than capable but I cant cover everybody. Anthony's Cross seems over matched here.
Nice field, should be perfect conditions as well. Have fun with this card friends.
Who doesn't love a rematch? That's Smiling Tiger, with Rosario up, taking last year's Hollywood Park Triple Bend by 2 plus lengths over Camp Victory, these two, with The Factor tossed in, should make for a speedy seven panels in today's edition.
Is California racing in a bad state of affairs? It may not be at its peak of health, but cards like today's that include the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, with Little Mike, Mr. Commons, Jeranimo, and Turk favorite, Liberian Freighter, make me forget the troubles our sport faces, at least for one day.
The Turk's going to have to wax poetic in my second blog post of the day. I'll be returning for a Pick 3 of Iowa's Festival of Horse Racing, including the Grade 3 Cornhusker, Iowa Oaks and Derby. Favorites struggled last night at Prairie Meadows and we're coming for bear later. For now, Little Turk goes for soccer glory in the Fort Niagara Soccer Tournament and I'm off soon.
I've been really enjoying this meet at Hollywood. I think the fake stuff plays fair, and while I love the atmosphere of Del Mar, I hate that fake surface and will miss Inglewood in a few weeks.
Let's get after it!
I'll be building something out of this following these base handicaps.
Zo Impressive, the NY bred daughter of Hard Spun, nips Disposablepleasure at the wire of the Grade 1 Mother Goose. Prerace I settled on a bet strategy of putting Disposablepleasure on top of an exacta with Contested and Believe You Can in the Place Spot. I actually dropped Contested based her toteboard ranking but bet Disposablepleasure over Believe You Can and Zo Impressive for two $2 exacta tickets. I'm not a big fan of five horse races, but it was obvious there were four quality fillies in this race and the top two were not the ones I expected, but again, I am even now looking forward to The Alabama more than I was.
In hindsight the pace profile I expected from Contested and Believe You Can held up; :23/:46.47 / 1:11.28, it was the runners that cracked.
The Hollywood Oaks was another nip at the wire by Potesta over Eden's Moon.
This is the race I would normally have bet, but I just couldn't get my hands around the middle layer of horses: Via Villaggio, Starlight Magic and Eden's Moon, who I was less high on than the betting public that put her atop the tote board. My base handicap was good enough to string together a Superfecta, but I doubt I would have went six deep so this is a case of winning money by not losing money.
Willa B Awesome checked pretty hard in along the rail. I'll be happy to come back to her again. I wanted to see more from Killer Graces than we did. Eden's Moon bounced back nicely after the Kentucky Oaks flop and Potesta, in only her third start looks special.
The sun is shining and summer is here. My mind drifts to my favorite place to be, Saratoga Race Track, with a season that's only 27 days away. The litany of races that I enjoy is legion, but the short list is The Kings Bishop, The Woodward, The Travers and The Alabama. That's the short list, I could babel on, but I've already made plans to be there on Alabama and Woodward Day which gives my work-weary mind something to look forward to. That beautiful gal pictured is the regal, Royal Delta, Alabama winner, Breeders' Cup Distaff Champion and last week's runaway Stephen Foster Handicap, errrrrr, Fleur De Lis winner. In a year that is devoid of older horse speed, Royal Delta suddenly seems like Game On Dude's biggest challenge in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Yeah, I'm getting ahead of myself, but I'm a blogger, I'm allowed to be irresponsible.
Today's pickings were a bit light. I'm going to focus on tomorrow's Woodbine Queens Plate Day but keep an eye on the fillies I hope to see the Alabama, and to do that, I'm handicapping The Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont and the Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks.
I had an OK betting night last weekend on Stephen Foster Handicap Day at Churchill Downs. We'll take a peek back and at some of that action as well.
Let's get after this!
Kentucky Oaks 2012
Acorn Stakes 2012
Black Eyed Susan 2012
Have I mentioned how much I am looking forward to the Alabama?
Larry Jones is 25% off the layoff and Believe You Can is making her race leading 10th start and looks to add to her race leading career earnings of $1.06 MM. A Grade 1, 2 and 3 winner.
Contested cruised here at Belmont,essentially uncontested, in the Acorn. She's a major player, with wins at Santa Anita, Belmont and Churchill Downs. Her sixth start, she was the chalk in every one of her previous 5 trips to post. Baffert clipping along at 32%.
Watch the Black Eyed Susan (above)and tell me who was opening up in the last 1/16 after working so hard to get through traffic. That's right, the Gr/Ro. daughter of Giacamo, Disposable Pleasure. A nice play may be to put Disposable Pleasure, who'll go off >6-1, on top and key exacta with both Believe You Can and Contested. that's worth $4 bucks to me!
At Hollywood later tonight is an 8 horse Hollywood Oaks.
The Santa Anita Oaks 2012
Melair Stakes 2012
Hollywood Starlet 2011
If you have a pulse, you've enjoyed Willa B Awesome all spring. 5 of 7 in the money on fake dirt, a Grade 1 winner, a Grade 3 winner, the race career earnings leader and making her race leading 14th start. A zippy :59 flat 5f work this week. Lots to like but I'm going to back Potesta.
Trainer Mitchell's stats are eye-popping: 35% fake dirt, 32% off layoff, 28% won last start, 26% routes and 33% wins on 61 starts when he places Talamo up. 8 pound advantage over Willa B Awesome.
Killer Graces pulled a $28.40 shocker in the Hollywood Starlet in December but is winless in 2012. 5 of 5 in the money at HOL, 5 of 7 in the money on fake dirt, trainer Hollendorfer is 24% on the Turf/Fake Dirt Switch. Not sure if she can win, but she's got guts and will be in the mix.
Eden's Moon is a Grade 1 winner but comes in after flaming out badly in the Kentucky Oaks. Baffert has her sharp and she will be dangerous in this group. Winless on only one fake dirt start
Hollendorfer has Via Villagio as well, returning after a Beyer jump to win the Grade 2 Railbird at 7f on HOL fake dirt in mid May.
I think this is a nice betting race, just enough horses and just enough parity to keep the odds honest. I'll be constructing exotics based around my base handicap.
In last week's Pick 4 of the Stephen Foster Handicap Day, an excellent nigh time racing card at Churchill Downs, I had some good handicapping and some OK, not great, bet constructions. Highlights were getting Treasured Up into the Trifecta of the Grade 3 Regret. Positive ROI, more of a single than a home run.
This Turk hasn't enjoyed a Triple Crown season as much as I enjoyed this years since Street Sense, Curlin and Rags to Riches thrilled me in 2007. I don't feel qualified to compare one crop of three year olds to another, but as a fan I'm more than qualified to talk about my relative excitement level, and amidst all the turmoil that still envelops horse racing, I'm ever the optimist that the bottom was reached and a brighter future is ahead.
One of the things I look forward to after the Triple Crown madness subsides is to see which runners, written off on the trail as not good enough, or worse, not even good enough to be on it, come into their own. My favorite horses are always the ones that run year after year until they retire, hopefully sound. I still await the next Lava Man, Einstein, Commentator, Brass Hat, Presious Passion to name a few. Race's like today's Fleur De Lis Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap is where those hard knockin' veteran horses strut their stuff, which makes today must see TV for me. Pictured above is Royal Delta, Alabama, Black Eyed Susan and Breeders' Cup Distaff champion. With those credentials, you had me neigh.
I love night racing on Saturday nights. I think it's a great way in the summer time to cater to the fans, not only at the track (because who wants to sit in 90 degree weather) but also the fans at home. I plan on being fully engaged with this card, and quite frankly, this is a Fathers Day gift, the time on a Saturday to watch these races, that I'm happy to accept.
While I may bet vertically within these races, horizontal was today's blog focus. I settled on the Pick 4, a bet that can be assembled within the confines of my personal bet limits, as opposed to the Pick 6, a speciality form of handicapping and betting that I don't have the skill with quite frankly. Know thy self: I'm less of a winner picker and more of a race talent evaluator. I excel at lumping the horses into groups, and those groups make up the potential winners, potential exotics and the toss outs. Know thy self: I'm more of a vertical bettor, I'm more skilled at it and my ROI is much higher with -ecta's than it is with P3/P4's. What makes us better as gamblers? Practice.
Let's get after it!
Churchill Downs Races 5-6-7-8: The All Graded Stakes Pick Four
In Race 5, The Matt Winn, Right to Vote is the most likely chalk on the tote board but I have Stealcase as mine: This Lawyer Ron (with saddness I think of the too few Lawyer Ron's)son lost by a neck to Belmont's Place horse, Paynter two back and comes in off a sharp CD 1 mile effort while driving. This is the race I'm not taking chaces with, overcovering slightly and I have Neck n' Neck and Macho Macho as well and we'll hope the longest odds take it.
The Grade 3 Regret has some really nice young gal's going at it. Michael Matz has Colonial Flag, with Leparoux up, looking for third straight Turf win. She has a very wicked late turn of foot and look for her to stalk.
Coup, an Augustin Stable runner, owned by Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member, Mr. George Strawbridge, comes off an impressive win in The Hilltop on Preakness Day. Very curious how she responds today.
Centre Court and Treasured Up represent value here.
In the Fleur De Lis, I would be inclined to single Royal Delta, and I trust that Mott would not have entered her her if she wasn't sharp, but I hate the UAE bounce, I've been burned many times, and I'd just rather be safe. Afleeting Lady is my choice to pull the upset: a sharp :47 1/5th 4f work this week and enters off n3X effort. 5 of 6 in the Money at CD. I reckon if i wanted to really be safe I'd put St. John's River in, but you can't cover everyone.
And finally, the handicap division, and Wise Dan, a monster late in the season with a freakish Clark run and a huge Ben Ali Beyer last out. Only one win on Dirt, but it is here at CD. Fort Larned is my choice to pull the upset and add value. The four year old lost by a head to Successful Dan last time out, a horse that is expected to be scratched here.
I'd be remiss to not wish a Happy Father's Day to my Father, big Turk.
Big Turk has a big heart, even if it has a mechanical ticker keeping time now. He has always been my moral compass, enforced by hands bigger than boxing mitts. Happy Father's Day Pops.
I'd also like to wish my Father in Law a Happy Father's Day. He's a Saint for many reasons.
The greatest blessing in the world (in my humble opinion) is to be a parent. The Little Turk is a wonderful young man and makes me very proud to be his father.
I scrapped the blog entry that I wrote, just hit the delete button, right after the news that I'll Have Another was scratched. I considered not blogging or betting at all. Just numb. If you're reading a horse racing blog, I'm betting you know exactly what I mean.
Secretariat doesn't belong to me. In 1973 I was seven, and while my parents saw Secretariat race, those feelings aren't first person to me. Affirmed, different story. While hard for young people now to believe, horse racing was on television, was covered in Sports Illustrated, was in the daily newspapers. I remember like yesterday sitting at a family first communion party for my little cousin watching Affirmed win the Kentucky Derby. I remember vividly coming home from school to check the mail for my SI magazine. I experienced that Triple Crown as a horse racing fan, not a bettor, and the thrill of it is still deep set within me. I was convinced Big Brown was going to win. Take Desormeaux off and I would have declared it a lock. I liked I'll Have Another coming out of Santa Anita Derby, but I wasn't sold until the Preakness stretch run. My deleted blog entry singled I'll Have Another in the Superfecta, I thought he would win the Triple Crown. I had his summer mapped out in my mind. I saw him winning the Goodwood G1 before winning The Breeders' Cup Classic. Hope dashed, yet hope still springs eternal. Another Triple Crown season will come next year and another chance to fall wildly in love with a horse, a jockey and even a trainer and connections that while flawed, are really just a mirror of society in general.
I think this is a decent betting race still and I've built a 10 Cent and $1 Dollar Superfecta that has some value. Let's get after it!
A Baffert/Lucas Exacta- Is this 1999 or 2012? I like Paynter on top, but more gut feel than anything. Less polished that Dullahan or Union Rags, he's sharp and rested. Quite a class jump, but 4 of the last 5 Belmont Winners were starting their first Triple Crown race. Not singled, but solid value and a legit shot.
Optimizer is me being a bit, optimistic. Trainer Lucas finally broke his year long Graded Stakes slump. This English Channel son should still be running with a 1/4 mile to go. What a story this would make: Lukas, freshly stitched up, in a late career swoon. Storybook.
Dullahan has winner's credentials and I mean him no disrespect, I'm just thinking a bit different today. Roman's training regime, especially the the 4f :45 4/5ths run blow and the 1 mile work is mastercraftsman like. Winless in four tries on dirt.
Union Rags is a nice horse but not a great horse yet. I think he could be a very good handicap division horse and if he comes out of today healthy he still has a late summer and fall to make some noise with. I can't see a win, but just too good to ignore. I like the jock switch as Leparoux didn't seem to get the best of him this year.
Street Life goes for Chad Brown and has lots of talent. Five Sixteen is a gelded son of Invasor. Gut call.
After such a let down, today will just be about what could have been and a bit of fun with who's still left.
For those of you not familiar with The Thorofan, I gravitated to them because their stated goals appealed to me:
Retain and enrich existing fans.
Seek out and attract new fans including those who are unable for physical or other limitations have not yet had the opportunity.
Give each fan, regardless of involvement, a voice to the industry regarding their interests in the betterment of the sport.
Hard to argue with that, and I am happy to promote an organization that I am a proud member of.
The Met Mile is part of my Memorial Day tradition. I honor our American War dead in the morning, gather with family in the afternoon, and we make this race part of the late afternoon activities. As a horse racing fan, and a person trying to promote the sport, I always try to make the races part of our family traditions, showing my love for the sport to the nieces, nephews, friends and future thorofans.
So with that build up, I'll be honest, seeing a six horse field doesn't thrill me. Superfecta is out, and if there is a scratch, ugh, it will be something similar to the Winchester, embedded below. As a horse racing fan I'll enjoy seeing some of my favorite horses contest this prestigious race, but as a bettor, I'd generally pass on a six horse field.
With a favorite that will be less than 2-1 and perhaps a post time chalk at 8-5, what do we do with this, how do we plan? Looking at the wager menu, Exacta, Trifecta and the Double are the bets de jour, and I think I'll target a value exacta. A value exacta Turk? Yes, we are going to toss the presumptive chalk and piece together no more than 4 combinations, or $8 worth of $2 exactas on the hunt for a will pay that at least doubles our investment or a bet that pays out greater than $16.
My initial read of the six horse field is that the quality of horses and the competitiveness of this race is high, with 5 of 6 runners currently millionaires. You know, many eleven horse fields have the same or fewer quality runners as this group, but it's those five other horses that help to keep the prices slightly more attractive. Nothing like a Duke of Mischief, a Mucho Macho Man or a Wilburn to drive an 8-5 back to 3-1.
I find it helpful to assess current form first. To do that I like to visual handicap, a combination of trip handicapping and visual appearance of the horses, especially in the last 1/8 of a mile and the gallop out. You Tube is a great resource for this sort of thing, even if sometimes you may have to hunt an peck a bit to find what you are looking for. I've gathered some of the key races that I think will help me decoded today's field.
2012 Affirmed Success Stakes Restricted NY STATE 7f
2012 Carter Handicap 7f
2012 Churchill Downs 7f
2012 Winchester 1 Mile
2011 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
There are a few things not to like about the 2011 Preakness Stakes Winner, Shackleford; Romans and Velazquez are winless together over past year, Velazquez is up in place of regular pilot Castanon, Velazquez is only a 7% winner at Belmont right now. Continuing to pile on, the horse is winless at the distance, winless at Belmont, and has only one win, his last in the Churchill Downs since the Preakness. All that said, I don't believe he'll be the bettors chalk and I'm installing him as my chalk and my single in the great exacta value hunt. I got the negatives out of the way, on the positives side of the ledger, a gutty stretch run in his last race and a decent enough effort in the Carter Handicap.
I am a big Jackson Bend fan; 19 of 25 in the money, 6 of last 7 races in triple digit Beyers. The 5 YO son of Hear No Evil has only one win in five tries at the distance, winless in two starts at Belmont, 18 of 22 in the money on fast dirt.
I expect the bettor's will reward Caleb's Posse with the chalk; Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile reigning champ, 2011 King's Bishop winner, with last two races lost by a combined neck and nose. Trainer Von Hemel, with Maragh up, combine for 43% winners. Trainer Von Hemel has a 31% win rate in graded stakes. I think the race sets up perfect for him, as he'll be off the lead and will have at least three targets to shoot for. I suspect he'll be wide out of the turn and he'll make his run there.
In the "one of these things is not like the other" category, Saginaw makes a big class jump up to enter this race. Trainer David Jacobson felt pretty good about his chances and runs him back on eleven days rest after winning the NY State restricted Affirmed Success Stakes. The six year old gelding has three wins at Belmont and is 12 of 13 in the money at the distance and 11 of 15 in the money on fast dirt.
It doesn't seem possible that Caixa Eletronica is seven years old, but he is, and he makes a whopping 53 start in this race and is 35 of 52 in the money, with 7 wins in his last 16 starts. A winner off the pace in the Charles Town Classic last time out, his best efforts come right off the pace, but it will be an almost career best for him to strike a win against this group and even Place seems unlikely. I think I found my value, now he has to do the work.
Trainer Mott's To Honor and Serve is a fine horse, winner of the Winchester last time out. He's 2 of 2 at Belmont and 3 of 3 at one mile and 10 of 12 in the money on fast dirt. All that said, I'm lukewarm on him. Mott and Lezcano do win 32% of the time together at Belmont.
There is quite a bit to like about To Honor and Serve and I wouldn't be surprised if he won this race. I'm more impressed by the quality of the field now since I went a bit deeper on the analysis, but you can't cover everybody.
Today's handicapping and betting exercise is really more about the bet construction than the handicap. I made a decision early on to bet Exacta and I made a decision to slot the bettors chalk no higher than Place. I'll bet no more than $6 to $8 dollars making straight Exacta Bets that single my chalk, Shackleford, and then cover everyone with the current exception of To Honor and Serve. Does that mean I like Saginaw more than To Honor and Serve? No, but this isn't a popularity contest, we are betting real money and I'm willing to risk $8 to make $16 or more and Saginaw represents that chance more than To Honor and Serve. Maybe the better argument is should I cover To Honor and Serve to Place and drop Caleb's Posse, especially if 8-5, and the answer is maybe.
You can't cover everyone friends; It's not good money management to lose bets, we can all agree on that, but its also not good money management to risk alot of capital on a small return, made smaller because you threw in an extra horse. If you have to do that, take more time becoming a better handicapper and save your capital for when you are ready.
I know it's a smallish field, made possibly smaller if Saginaw runs on the 27th as is possible, so gather your family around the TV at race time and try and make the race, perhaps not this particular edition of the race, a real family tradition like I have in mine. That's the true spirit of The Thorofan, bringing fans back.
The Turk feels heavily invested into Hollywood Park this meet; I've traveled there twice now from Buffalo, and when I wasn't betting and winning, I was wandering the facility and thinking about what it must have been like in another time, another era, when names like Noor, Swaps, Roundtable and Native Diver were revered as the champions they were. 
