Saturday, June 18, 2011

The Nomination Is In: June 18, 2011; The Colonial Downs Pick Three including The Colonial Turf Cup

Friends, you have lots of good cards to pick from this weekend, and for me, I'm playing Colonial Downs in honor of Edward Evans who passed away earlier this year.

I went into the handicapping thinking I'd build a Pick Three, but the handicapping comes before the bet strategy for a reason and this sequence looks awful chalky. Chalky can work to your advantage if you can find one runner in one race that is viewed dismissively by the betting public: Singling the chalks ain't gonna get you a seat at the National Handicapping Championship if you're into that sort of thing.

The three race sequence fits in nicely in the Saturday schedule, as all three go off between 7 and 8 PM Eastern. The weather is a mixed bag, hot with a potential for thunderstorms. I'm handicapping for firm to good turf.

Let's get after it!

Colonial Downs Race 6-8

Race 6 is the $50,000 Da Hoss on the inner turf. Mikoshi is 13 of 17 in the money on the turf and 3 of 5 in the money at the distance. Mike Matz has R. Dominguez up, who is riding in Philadelphia earlier in the day. I'll look for a price in the P3 with Pocket Patch: 8 of 16 in the money on turf with 5 wins, into his third effort in his fitness cycle and the 6 year old gelding looks primed. I'll most likely cover Baletti as well; the 7 YO gelded son of Gulch is more than capable.

Race 7 is Edward P. Evans All Along Grade 3. Aruna looks really mighty compared to this group. Trainer Motion puts Dominguez up and the 4 YO Mr. Greely daughter has strung 4 very good races in a row together and she has 4 wins in 9 tries over the grass. Motion has Apple Charlotte entered here as well as Delaware. The Smart Strike daughter is training sharply and has had two strong efforts since early April. Dyna Waltz is a Sheppard/Strawbridge runner who poses a big threat and I may cover La Cloche as well, a Ghostzapper who is also entered at Delaware, so watch the scratches and changes.

And Race 8 is the $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup. I like Smart Bid quite a bit and I'm not s high on Court Vision at this point in his career, but with this field, he's still dangerous. Dark Cove and Moryba (Brz) offer a chance for a good price. Dark Cove has seemed poised to be something for so long, now would be a good time as it would really juice this pick three up.

Have fun with whatever you are playing today friends, Turk Out!

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