Thursday, May 3, 2012

The Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll Final Edition 2012

Pencils down folks! We've analyzed, we've tweeked, we've tweezed, dissected, bisected, rambled about, pontificated over, looked at pace scenarios, studied video, groused over foaming, sweating, gallup outs, breezes, fake dirt, layoffs, jocks, yada yada, yada.

Friends, it's the Kentucky Derby, it's one and one quarter miles long, longer than any of them have ever run before. Some of them want to run that far, some of them don't. Some will rabbit to the front and you'll think you that longshot is going to make you rich, but inevitably he will hit a wall and horses sitting just off the pace will start to surge forward. There will be a few that have one big run in them. From the blimp shot this will be an awe inspiring thing, as they weave through traffic like a Porsche amongst Yugos.

I'd love to tell you who's going to win but I can't. in fact nobody can. Not pink sheets, white sheets, celebrity handicappers, player services, nobody. What a good handicapper can do is give you is a range of possibles. I'm a range handicapper, I segregate the horses into groups, assemble bets based on these ranges and, well, hope for the best. My advice to new players is always the same: Handicap lots of races, assemble win and exacta bets, bet little. Learn what works and what doesn't by analysis. Sometimes it will be obvious in hindsight, and sometimes you just have to say, ehh, what the heck.

It's been my pleasure writing about and grading the Kentucky Derby contenders over the past several months. The Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll team is a salty bunch. You can learn quite a bit from them individually, much more than you will reading mainstream media writers. I hope you enjoyed our rankings as much as we did doing it. I'll be back tomorrow with Oaks/Derby selections.

Turk Out!

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